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Michaelmas 2019

Wednesday  11 September 2019  18:00 - 19:30
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Social Contracts for the 21st Century

Minouche Shafik (Director, LSE)

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LSE India Observatory IG Patel Lecture
Thursday  19 September 2019  09:30 - 18:00

CEPR, STICERD, Marshall Institute and Rustandy Center Joint Conference

Various Speakers 

The London School of Economics (STICERD and Marshall Institute), the University of Chicago Booth School of Business (Rustandy Center) and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) invite you to the joint conference on: Economics of Social Sector Organisations (ESSO), Entrepreneurship Economics (ENT), Incentives, Management and Organisation (IMO) on 19-20 September 2019. Organisers: Nava Ashraf (LSE and CEPR), Oriana Bandiera (LSE and CEPR), Catherine Thomas (LSE and CEPR). Keynote paper will be given by John Van Reenen (LSE).


32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Special Events
Tuesday  24 September 2019  14:00 - 15:30
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Sleepless in Chennai: The Consequences of Increasing Sleep among the Urban Poor

Gautam Rao (Harvard University) , joint with Pedro Bessone, Frank Schilbach, Heather Schofield, and Mattie Toma

This paper measures the prevalence and consequences of sleep deprivation among the urban poor in India. We find that low-income adults in Chennai sleep little and poorly:  5.6 hours of objectively-measured sleep per night, despite 8 hours in bed. Their sleep can be increased substantially: randomized treatments providing simple devices, encouragement, (and for some) financial incentives increase night sleep by over 30 minutes. Offering short naps at the workplace in the afternoon also increased daily sleep. However, increased  night sleep had no detectable effects on cognition, productivity or labor supply, economic decisions, or physical health.  In contrast, naps improved cognition, subjective well-being and labor productivity. Naps also reduced present bias and inattention, and marginally increased financial savings. Our results provide a possible explanation for the persistence of widespread sleep deprivation and the relatively high prevalence of afternoon naps in many developing countries.


32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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STICERD Psychology and Economics Seminar
Thursday  26 September 2019  12:30 - 14:00
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New approach to distribution-free testing for Markov chains

Estate Khmaladze (Victoria University of Wellington)

Consider an empirical process, in any one of statistical contexts, and then apply unitary operator to this processes. Can one say what good could come out of this, and why will it be useful? The answer is that probably one can, as it leads us to a new point of view on distribution-free testing of probabilistic models. The specific answer in the case of parametric families of discrete distributions was described in 2013. For parametric empirical processes in $\R^d$ the approach was described in 2016. In this talk we will show two further examples: how can we have a theory of distribution-free tests for transition matrices of Markov chains, and, if we have time enough, and if my colleagues will find it of interest, how can we test regression model in the way, which does not depend on covariates


32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series
Friday  04 October 2019  12:00 - 13:00

The Colourblind Problem

Estate Khmaladze (Victoria University of Wellington)

32L B.11, Basement, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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Joint Econometrics and Statistics Workshop
Tuesday  08 October 2019  17:00 - 18:00
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Hydro Power and The Power of People in India

Subrat Kumar Sahu, joint with Grantham Research Institute

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LSE India Observatory Seminar


For further information please contact india.observatory@lse.ac.uk or call 020 7955 7615.
Tuesday  08 October 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Obfuscating Ownership

Scott Gehlbach (University of Chicago)

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Tuesday  15 October 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Sexual harassment and gender inequality in the labor market

Johanna Rickne (Stockholm)

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  16 October 2019  16:30 - 18:00

How the Reification of Merit Breeds Inequality: Theory and Experimental Evidence

Fabien Accominotti (London School of Economics)

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32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CASE Social Exclusion Seminars
Tuesday  22 October 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Making policies matter: Voter responses to campaign promises

Cesi Cruz (University of British Columbia)

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  23 October 2019  16:30 - 18:00

Social Policy and Distributional Outcomes (SPDO) event: Homelessness and complex needs

Suzanne Fitzpatrick (I-SPHERE, Heriot-Watt University) , joint with Glen Bramley (Heriot-Watt University)

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32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CASE Social Exclusion Seminars
Monday  28 October 2019  12:30 - 14:00

Common Ownership in America: 1980-2017; and Testing for Common Ownership (joint with Matthew Backus and Christopher Conlon)

Michael Sinkinson (Yale)

When competing firms possess overlapping sets of investors, maximizing shareholder value may provide incentives that distort competitive behavior, affecting pricing, entry, contracting, and virtually all strategic interactions among firms. We propose a structurally consistent and scaleable approach to the measurement of this phenomenon for the universe of S&P 500 firms between 1980 and 2017. Contrary to popular intuition, this is not primarily associated with the rise of BlackRock and Vanguard: instead, the trend in the time series is driven by a broader rise in diversified investment strategies, of which these firms are only the most recent incarnation. In the cross-section, there is substantial variation that can be traced, both in the theory and the data, to observable firm characteristics. We show how common ownership can theoretically give rise to incentives for expropriation of undiversified shareholders via tunneling. Finally, we develop a framework for testing for price effects of common ownership in differentiated goods markets. We apply this test to the US market for ready-to-eat cereals.


32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Industrial Organisation Seminars
Tuesday  29 October 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Propaganda, Conspiracy Theories, and Accountability in Fragile Democracies

Ken Schotts (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University) , joint with Anqi Li and Davin Raiha

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  30 October 2019  12:45 - 14:00

Labour Mobility and Earnings in the UK, 1992-2016

Fabien Postel-Vinay (University College London)

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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CASE Welfare Policy and Analysis Seminars
Thursday  31 October 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Acquisition of/Stochastic Evidence

Bart Lipman (Boston) , joint with Elchanan Ben-Porath and Eddie Dekel

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
Friday  01 November 2019  12:00 - 13:00

Empirical Likelihood for Network Data

Yukitoshi Matsushita (Hitotsubashi University)

32L B.11, Basement, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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Joint Econometrics and Statistics Workshop
Monday  04 November 2019  12:00 - 13:30

What do Nudges Really Do? New Evidence from Over 100 Trials

Stefano DellaVigna (Berkeley)

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Tuesday  05 November 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Representation Failure

Sergio Montero (University of Rochester)

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Thursday  07 November 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Identification of possibly nonfundamental Structural VARMA models using higher order moments

Carlos Velasco (UC3, Madrid)

We use information from higher order moments to achieve identification of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models, possibly non-fundamental. We introduce a frequency domain criterion to identify the location of the roots of the lag matrix polynomials based on higher order cumulants dynamics. This information also provides identification on the rotation of the model errors leading to the structural innovations up to sign and permutation. We develop general representations of the higher order spectral density arrays of vector linear processes and describe sufficient conditions for global and local parameter identification that rely on simple rank conditions on the linear dynamics and on moment implications of the independence component assumption on the vector of structural innovations. We generalize previous univariate asymptotic analysis to develop asymptotically normal and efficient estimates exploiting second and higher order dynamics.


32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series
Thursday  07 November 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Inferring Cognitive Heterogeneity from Aggregate Choices

Paola Manzini (University of Sussex) , joint with Valentino Dardanoni, Marco Mariotti and Chris Tyson

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
Monday  11 November 2019  12:00 - 13:30

Allocative Efficiency in Firm Production: A Nonparametric Test Using Procurement Lotteries

Dave Donaldson (MIT)

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Monday  11 November 2019  12:30 - 14:00

Buying Data from Consumers: The Impact of Monitoring in U.S. Auto Insurance

Yizhou Jin (Berkeley)

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We study the impact of a voluntary monitoring program by a major U.S. auto insurer, in which drivers accept short-term tracking in exchange for potential discounts on future premiums. We acquire a detailed proprietary dataset from the insurer and match it with competitor price menus. We first quantify the degree to which monitoring incentivizes safer driving and allows more accurate risk-based pricing. We then model the demand and supply forces that determine the amount of information revealed in equilibrium: structural demand estimates capture correlations among cost and demand for insurance and for monitoring; a dynamic pricing model links the firm's information on driver risk to prices. We find large profit and welfare gains from introducing monitoring. Safer drivers self-select into monitoring, with those who opt in becoming 30% safer when monitored. Given resource costs and price competition, a data-sharing mandate would have reduced short-term welfare


32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Industrial Organisation Seminars
Tuesday  12 November 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Politics from the Bench? Ideology and Strategic Voting in the U.S. Supreme Court

Jorg Spenkuch (Northwestern University) , joint with Tom S. Clark and B. Pablo Montagnes

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  13 November 2019  12:45 - 14:00

The Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth

Prof Brian Nolan (Department of Social Policy and Intervention and INET, University of Oxford)

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CASE Welfare Policy and Analysis Seminars
Thursday  14 November 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Inference for the mean

Ulrich Mueller (Princeton University)

Consider inference about the mean of a population with finite variance, based on an i.i.d. sample. The usual t-statistic yields correct inference in large samples, but heavy tails induce poor small sample behavior. This paper combines extreme value theory for the smallest and largest observations with a normal approximation for the t-statistic of a truncated sample to obtain more accurate inference. This alternative approximation is shown to provide a refinement over the standard normal approximation to the full sample t-statistic under more than two but less than three moments, while the bootstrap does not. Small sample simulations suggest substantial size improvements over the bootstrap, also in an application to linear regression inference with clustered standard errors


32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series
Thursday  14 November 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Compromise, don't optimize: A prior-free alternative to Bayesian Nash equilibrium

Andriy Zapachelnyuk (University of St Andrews) , joint with Karl Schlag

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
Friday  15 November 2019  12:00 - 13:00

Minimax Learning for Average Regression Functionals: With an application to electoral accountability and corruption

Chen Qiu (London School of Economics)

32L B.11, Basement, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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Joint Econometrics and Statistics Workshop
Friday  15 November 2019  13:00 - 14:00

How much choice is enough? Comparing parents' experiences of school choice in England and Scotland

Aveek Bhattacharya (CASE, London School of Economics)

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Work in Progress Seminars
Monday  18 November 2019  12:00 - 13:30

Scaling Up Agricultural Policy Interventions: Theory and Evidence from Uganda

Benjamin Faber (University of California, Berkeley)

Interventions aimed at raising agricultural productivity in developing countries have been a centerpiece in the global fight against poverty. Much of the recent evidence in this space has been based on randomized control trials (RCTs), with the well-known limitation that findings from local interventions generally do not speak to the general equilibrium (GE) effects if the policy were to be scaled up. In this paper, we study these forces through the lens of a quantitative GE model of farm production and trade that we develop to capture several stylized facts in this setting. We propose a new solution approach in this environment that allows us to study high-dimensional GE counterfactuals at the level of individual households in the macroeconomy. We then bring to bear rich administrative microdata to calibrate the model to the roughly 6 million households populating Uganda. We use these building blocks to explore the average and distributional implications of small-scale interventions compared to policies at scale, and quantify the underlying mechanisms.


32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Monday  18 November 2019  12:30 - 14:00

Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design

Robert Clark (Queen's University)

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The FDIC resolves insolvent banks using an auction process in which bidding is multidimensional and the rule used to evaluate bids along the different dimensions is proprietary. Uncertainty about the scoring rule leads banks to simultaneously submit multiple differentiated bids. This resolution mechanism typically results in considerable losses for the FDIC—$90 billion during the crisis. Our objective is to see whether the mechanism could be improved. To do so, we propose a methodology for analyzing auction environments where bids are ranked according to multiple attributes chosen by bidders, but where there is uncertainty about the scoring rule used to evaluate the different components of the bids. Using this framework, which extends structural estimation techniques for combinatorial auctions, and FDIC data summarizing bids, we back out the underlying preferences of banks for failed institutions. With these we perform counterfactuals in which we eliminate uncertainty and/or multiple bidding. Our findings suggest that the FDIC could reduce the cost of resolution by around 17% by announcing the scoring rule before bidding begins.


32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Industrial Organisation Seminars
Tuesday  19 November 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Legislators’ Response to Changes in the Electorate: The Great Migration and Civil Rights

Marco Tabellini (Harvard Business School) , joint with Alvaro Calderon and Vasiliki Fouka

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  20 November 2019  12:45 - 14:00

Universal Credit and Financial Resilience

Deven Ghelani (Policy in Practice) , joint with Ben Fell

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CASE Welfare Policy and Analysis Seminars
Thursday  21 November 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Synthetic Difference in Differences

Stefan Wager (Stanford)

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We present a new perspective on the Synthetic Control (SC) method as a weighted least squares regression estimator with time fixed effects and unit weights. This perspective suggests a generalization with two way (both unit and time) fixed effects, and both unit and time weights, which can be interpreted as a unit and time weighted version of the standard Difference In Differences (DID) estimator. We find that this new Synthetic Difference In Differences (SDID) estimator has attractive properties compared to the SC and DID estimators. Formally we show that our approach has double robustness properties: the SDID estimator is consistent under a wide variety of weighting schemes given a well-specified fixed effects model, and SDID is consistent with appropriately penalized SC weights when the basic fixed effects model is misspecified and instead the true data generating process involves a more general low-rank structure (e.g., a latent factor model). We also present results that justify standard inference based on weighted DID regression. Further generalizations include unit and time weighted factor models.


32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series
Thursday  21 November 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Blackwell Equilibria

Costas Cavounidas (University of Warwick)

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
Friday  22 November 2019  13:00 - 14:00

Household indebtedness and mental wellbeing among older individuals in England

Aapo Hiilamo (CASE, London School of Economics)

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Work in Progress Seminars
Monday  25 November 2019  12:00 - 13:30

Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations

Gabriel Ulyssea (Oxford)

Motivated by recent work on the labor market effects of trade, we build a model of trade with labor market frictions and regulations that are not perfectly enforced by the government. Heterogeneous firms decide whether to operate formally or informally, allowing for a link between globalization, informality and unemployment. We estimate the model using several data sources from Brazil, including matched employer-employee data from formal and informal firms and workers. We perform counterfactual analyses to understand how increasing trade openness affects informality, unemployment and welfare under different scenarios of labor market regulations and levels of enforcement. Our results suggest that domestic policies leading to a reduction in informality have the potential to strongly increase aggregate productivity and welfare, at the expense of modest increases in unemployment. These policies have a much larger effect on welfare relative to policies aiming to reduce international trade costs. The informal sector works as a buffer in the event of negative economic shocks. However, the welfare gains from eradicating informality are so significant that it is hard to justify lenience toward the informal sector on the basis that it works as a buffer following negative economic shocks.


32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Monday  25 November 2019  12:30 - 14:00

The surprising effectiveness of minimum unit prices on alcohol

Rachel Griffith (IFS and University of Manchester) , joint with Martin O'Connell and Kate Smith

All OECD countries have policies that aim to reduce the externalities associated with alcohol consumption. Policies that increase the price of alcohol face the inherent trade-off of reducing externalities while minimising allocative distortions. Scotland and Ireland have recently introduced minimum unit prices, and other countries looks set to follow suit. Advocates of the minimum unit price argue that it targets alcohol misuse and problem drinking (while limiting the impact on light and moderate drinkers), because it raises the price of cheap alcohol, which is disproportionately purchased by the heaviest drinkers. Economists have been critical of this policy; price fixing is illegal in competition law, which includes agreements not to sell something below a minimum price, and it leads to substantial transfer from government tax receipts to industry revenues. When the externalities from alcohol consumption are homogeneous, a tax levied on alcohol content is more efficient than a minimum unit price. However, if externalities are heterogeneous (e.g. if the marginal cost of drinking is larger the more someone drinks), then the relative effectiveness of policies depends on how those who generate different externalities respond to policy intervention. We find that, in the UK, if externalities are sufficiently concentrated among heavy drinkers, then a minimum unit price is more efficient than a flat tax levied on alcohol content.


32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Industrial Organisation Seminars
Tuesday  26 November 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Role of Communities in the Transmission of Political Values: Evidence from Forced Population Transfers

Volha Charnysh (MIT) , joint with Leonid Peisakhin

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  27 November 2019  12:30 - 13:45

Does Eviction Cause Poverty? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Cook County, IL

John Eric Humphries (Yale)

IFS, 7 Ridgmount Street, London, WC1E 7AE


IFS-STICERD Public Economics Seminar
Wednesday  27 November 2019  16:30 - 18:00

A new measure of poverty for the UK: The Social Metrics Commission's approach and results

Matthew Oakley (Social Metrics Commission)

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32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CASE Social Exclusion Seminars
Thursday  28 November 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Long-term contracting with time-inconsistent agents

Daniel Gottlieb (Department of Management, LSE) , joint with Xingtan Zhang

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
Friday  29 November 2019  12:00 - 13:00

Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models

Svetlana Bruzgalova (London Business School) , joint with J. Huang and C. Julliard

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32L B.11, Basement, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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Joint Econometrics and Statistics Workshop
Friday  29 November 2019  13:00 - 14:00

Breaking Gender Barriers: Bringing Men into the Pink-Collar Jobs of the Future

Alexia Delfino (Department of Economics, LSE)

32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


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STICERD Work in Progress Seminars
Monday  02 December 2019  12:00 - 13:30

Gangs, Labor Mobility and Development

Maria Micaela Sviatschi (Princeton )

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Tuesday  03 December 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Gender and Party Discipline: Evidence from 800 African Parliamentarians

Amanda Clayton (Vanderbilt University) , joint with Par Zetterberg

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32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  04 December 2019  12:45 - 14:00

Follow the money: Exploring the link between UK growth and workers’ pay packets

Matthew Whittaker (Chief Executive of Pro Bono Economics (formerly Resolution Foundation))

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CASE Welfare Policy and Analysis Seminars
Thursday  05 December 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Bounds in continuous instrumental variable models

Florian Gunsilius (Michigan)

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Partial identification approaches have seen a sharp increase in interest in econometrics due to improved flexibility and robustness compared to point-identification approaches. However, formidable computational requirements of existing approaches often offset these undeniable advantages—particularly in general instrumental variable models with continuous variables. This article introduces a computationally tractable method for estimating bounds on functionals of counterfactual distributions in continuous instrumental variable models. Its potential applications include randomized trials with imperfect compliance, the evaluation of social programs and, more generally, simultaneous equations models. The method does not require functional form restrictions a priori, but can incorporate parametric or non-parametric assumptions into the estimation process. It proceeds by solving an infinite dimensional program on the paths of a system of counterfactual stochastic processes in order to obtain the counterfactual bounds. A novel “sampling of paths”- approach provides the practical solution concept and probabilistic approximation guarantees. As a demonstration of its capabilities, the method provides informative non-parametric bounds on household expenditures under the sole assumption that expenditure is continuous,showing that partial identification approaches can yield informative bounds under minimal assumptions. Moreover, it shows that additional monotonicity assumptions lead to considerably tighter bounds, which constitutes a novel assessment of the identificatory strength of such non-parametric assumptions in a unified framework.


32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series
Thursday  05 December 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Keeping the Listener Engaged: a Dynamic Model of Bayesian Persuasion

Konrad Mierendorff (UCL) , joint with Yeon-Koo Che and Kyungmin (Teddy) Kim

We consider a dynamic model of Bayesian persuasion. Over time, a sender performs a series of experiments to persuade a receiver to take a desired action. Constraints on information flow force the sender's persuasion to take real time, and the receiver may walk away at any time without listening. In addition, persuasion is costly for both players. To incentivize the receiver to listen, the sender must leave rents that compensate his listening costs, but neither player can commit to her/his future actions. Persuasion may totally collapse in Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) of this game. But, for persuasion cost sufficiently small, there is a folk theorem: outcomes that approximate Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011)'s optimal persuasion and full revelation, as well as anything in between are obtained in MPE, as the persuasion cost vanishes.


32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
Monday  09 December 2019  12:00 - 13:30

The Roots of Health Inequality and the Value of Intra-Family Expertise

Petra Persson (Stanford)

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32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Monday  09 December 2019  12:30 - 14:00

The persistence of healthy behaviors in food purchasing

Marit Hinnosaar (Collegio Carlo Alberto)

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When some healthy foods are temporarily subsidized, how does that affect diet and how long does the impact last? I study the U.S. Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, which gives vouchers for healthy foods. Using household-level scanner data and exploiting a reform of the program, first, I find that the subsidies make diet healthier. The effect is driven by increased purchases of subsidized products without sizable externalities on other product categories. Second, there is little evidence of a long-term impact on food purchases—when households become ineligible, the effect of the program diminishes. Third, demand model estimates show that in the first years after the end of eligibility, households are still more likely to prefer the previously subsidized products. The estimates imply that price differences between healthy and unhealthy foods play a large role in the decrease in the program’s impact.


32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Industrial Organisation Seminars
Tuesday  10 December 2019  14:00 - 15:30

TBC

Stelios Michalopoulos (Brown University)

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  11 December 2019  16:30 - 18:00

Social Policy and Distributional Outcomes (SPDO) event: Compulsory Education: policies, spending and outcomes

Ruth Lupton (University of Manchester) , joint with Polina Obolenskaya (London School of Economics)

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


CASE Social Exclusion Seminars
Thursday  12 December 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Machine Learning for Dynamic Discrete Choice

Vira Semenova (MIT) , joint with joint work with Victor Chernozhukov and Whitney Newey

Dynamic discrete choice models often discretize the state vector and restrict its dimension in order to achieve valid inference. I propose a novel two-stage estimator for the set-identified structural parameter that incorporates a high-dimensional state space into the dynamic model of imperfect competition. In the first stage, I estimate the state variable’s law of motion and the equilibrium policy function using machine learning tools. In the second stage, I plug the firststage estimates into a moment inequality and solve for the structural parameter. The moment function is presented as the sum of two components, where the first one expresses the equilibrium assumption and the second one is a bias correction term that makes the sum insensitive (i.e., Neyman-orthogonal) to first-stage bias. The proposed estimator uniformly converges at the root-N rate and I use it to construct confidence regions. The results developed here can be used to incorporate high-dimensional state space into classic dynamic discrete choice models, for example, those considered in Rust (1987), Bajari et al. (2007), and Scott (2013).


32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series
Thursday  12 December 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Rationalizing Committee Votes

Ludovic Renou (QMUL) , joint with Rahul Deb

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
Friday  13 December 2019  12:00 - 13:00

TBA

Hao Dong (South Methodist University)

32L B.11, Basement, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH


Please note new venue


Joint Econometrics and Statistics Workshop
  
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