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This Week
02 December 2019 - 08 December 2019

Monday  02 December 2019  12:00 - 13:30

Gangs, Labor Mobility and Development

Maria Micaela Sviatschi (Princeton )

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Tuesday  03 December 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Gender and Party Discipline: Evidence from 800 African Parliamentarians

Amanda Clayton (Vanderbilt University) , joint with Par Zetterberg

[pdf] Download Paper

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

Political Science and Political Economy Research Seminar
Wednesday  04 December 2019  12:45 - 14:00

Follow the money: Exploring the link between UK growth and workers’ pay packets

Matthew Whittaker (Chief Executive of Pro Bono Economics (formerly Resolution Foundation))

32L 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

CASE Welfare Policy and Analysis Seminars
Thursday  05 December 2019  14:00 - 15:30

Bounds in continuous instrumental variable models

Florian Gunsilius (Michigan)

[pdf] Download Paper

Partial identification approaches have seen a sharp increase in interest in econometrics due to improved flexibility and robustness compared to point-identification approaches. However, formidable computational requirements of existing approaches often offset these undeniable advantages—particularly in general instrumental variable models with continuous variables. This article introduces a computationally tractable method for estimating bounds on functionals of counterfactual distributions in continuous instrumental variable models. Its potential applications include randomized trials with imperfect compliance, the evaluation of social programs and, more generally, simultaneous equations models. The method does not require functional form restrictions a priori, but can incorporate parametric or non-parametric assumptions into the estimation process. It proceeds by solving an infinite dimensional program on the paths of a system of counterfactual stochastic processes in order to obtain the counterfactual bounds. A novel “sampling of paths”- approach provides the practical solution concept and probabilistic approximation guarantees. As a demonstration of its capabilities, the method provides informative non-parametric bounds on household expenditures under the sole assumption that expenditure is continuous,showing that partial identification approaches can yield informative bounds under minimal assumptions. Moreover, it shows that additional monotonicity assumptions lead to considerably tighter bounds, which constitutes a novel assessment of the identificatory strength of such non-parametric assumptions in a unified framework.

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series
Thursday  05 December 2019  15:30 - 17:00

Keeping the Listener Engaged: a Dynamic Model of Bayesian Persuasion

Konrad Mierendorff (UCL) , joint with Yeon-Koo Che and Kyungmin (Teddy) Kim

We consider a dynamic model of Bayesian persuasion. Over time, a sender performs a series of experiments to persuade a receiver to take a desired action. Constraints on information flow force the sender's persuasion to take real time, and the receiver may walk away at any time without listening. In addition, persuasion is costly for both players. To incentivize the receiver to listen, the sender must leave rents that compensate his listening costs, but neither player can commit to her/his future actions. Persuasion may totally collapse in Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) of this game. But, for persuasion cost sufficiently small, there is a folk theorem: outcomes that approximate Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011)'s optimal persuasion and full revelation, as well as anything in between are obtained in MPE, as the persuasion cost vanishes.

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

STICERD Economic Theory Seminars
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