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Abstract:

Econometrics Paper
Testing of Unit Root and Other Nonstationary Hypotheses in Macroeconomic Time Series - (Now published in 'Journal of Econometrics', 80, 1997, pp.241-268.)
L A Gil-Alaña and Peter M Robinson December 1996
Paper No' EM/1996/317:


Tags: nonstationarity; macroeconomic time series; fractional integration

Recently proposed tests for unit root and other nonstationarity of Robinson (1994a) are applied to an extended version of the data set used by Nelson and Plosser (1982). Unusually, the tests are efficient (against appropriate parametric alternatives), the null can be any member of the I(d) class, and the null limit distribution is chi-squared. The conclusions vary substantially across fourteen series, and across different models of the disturbances (which, also unusually, include the Bloomfield spectral model). Overall, the consumer price index and money stock seem the most nonstationary, while industrial production and unemployment rate seem the closest to stationarity.