Social Policy in a Cold Climate

Funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Nuffield Foundation and the Trust for London

This is a significant programme of work jointly funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Nuffield Foundation and the Trust for London, and taking place over the period October 2011 to May 2015. Since 2007, the economy, social policy and the welfare state in the UK have undergone a series of shocks and changes including the financial crash, a period of increased public spending between 2007 and 2010 followed by extensive cuts, and major reforms or changes in many areas of social policy. In combination, these can be expected to have substantial impacts on the distribution of incomes and wealth and the extent and distribution of state provision. There is reduced research funding within central government to monitor these changes and their social impacts.

This programme will produce an overall assessment of these changes, with a particular focus on their impacts on distribution, poverty, inequality and spatial differences. We will look at the period from 2007 to 2014, including assessments of change at different times within this period and at continuity and change with earlier periods. The work is quantitative in nature, and will cover four themes:

analysis of social policy and public spending changes and their direct results. We will focus on four main areas of policy: personal taxation and social security (including pensions and employment policy), early years policy, education, health and social care.
broader assessment of the overall distribution of economic outcomes, identifying groups who have gained and lost over different periods. This will build on and compared with the baseline Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK produced by the National Equality Panel which covered the period up to the recession in 2008.
new work using longitudinal studies on trends in social mobility and the impact of policy on access to opportunity, particularly in education and the early years.
spatial analysis both of policy and spending and of outcomes in order to understand how the geography of poverty, inequality and opportunity is being shaped in the current economic and political climate. We will look at different spatial scales from countries to neighbourhoods. We will apply a spatial lens to our analysis of policy, spending and outcomes in the policy areas specified in Theme 1, and also to the analysis of economic outcomes in Theme 2. We will also examine the impact of ‘localism’ in additional policy areas (to be decided but could include, for example housing and planning and school education).

This is a long term and large scale programme and the research team will be keen to hear from and cooperate with other groups working on similar issues. Interim reports will be produced and events will be held throughout the programme with a final report in time to inform public policy debate before the next scheduled general election in May 2015.