The intergenerational effects of forced migration on human capital and personality traits

About this event

At the end of 2023, 68.3 million people were internally displaced due to armed conflicts and violence. Yet studies examining the causal effects of forced migration on the displaced are scarce: data collection in conflict zones is challenging, observational studies typically compare displaced and non-displaced people that differ on many dimensions, and randomized experiments are usually neither feasible nor ethical. In this research, we overcome these limitations by utilizing a sharp geographic discontinuity in Finland, which ceded a tenth of its territory to the Soviet Union and resettled the population living in the ceded areas to the remaining parts of the country towards the end of World War II. Using a regression discontinuity design, we compare the sons of displaced fathers to sons of non-displaced fathers from neigbhoring non-ceded municipalities. Linking standardized tests administered by the Finnish Defence Forces to all men drafted to mandatory military service with census data, we examine the intergenerational effect of forced migration on a broad range of human capital indicators and personality traits. Our estimates show that sons of displaced fathers have higher education, better cognitive ability, personality traits associated with higher incomes, and fewer mental health issues in early adulthood. Seeking to illuminate potential mechanisms, we explore the role of secondary migration and neighborhood effects. Together, these findings reshape our understanding of the long-term consequences of forced migration and inform resettlement policies.