U.S. Robot Impacts in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombian Workers

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Previous studies for developed countries show negative short-run impacts of industrial robots on earnings and employment. This paper examines whether robotization by a major trade partner can hurt workers in developing countries. We combine Colombian Social Security administrative records from 2008 to 2016 with U.S. robot adoption data by industry. Colombian workers who in 2008 were working in industries heavily exposed to U.S. robots, afterward experienced lower cumulative earnings and spent more time working in the same industry. Workers switching industries undergo the largest earnings losses. We show these results are not driven by other capital or digital technologies adopted in Colombia. Earning losses are stronger as workers age, for higher-earnings workers, and for those working in larger firms. Notably, higher exposure to U.S. robots decreases Colombian exports to the U.S., particularly in the primary sector.