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STICERD Econometrics Seminar Series

Counterfactual prediction in complete information games: point prediction under partial identification

Joris Pinske (Pennsylvania State University)

Tuesday 25 October 2016 14:00 - 15:30

32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

Many of our seminars and public events this year will continue as online seminars or as online and in person. Please check our website listings and Twitter feed @STICERD_LSE for updates.

Unless otherwise specified, current restrictions mean in-person seminars are only open to members of the LSE community (those with a valid LSE ID card).

Those unable to join the seminars in-person are welcome to participate via zoom.


About this event

We study the problem of counterfactual prediction in discrete decision games with complete information, pure strategies, and Nash equilibria. We show that the presence of multiple equilibria poses unique challenges for the problem of counterfactual prediction even if the payoff structure is known in its entirety. We show that multiple types of counterfactuals can be defined and that the prediction probabilities are not generally point–identified. We establish the sharp identified bounds of the prediction probabilities. We further propose, compare, and contrast various decision methods for the purpose of producing a point prediction, namely midpoint prediction, a decision–theoretic possibility using a Dirichlet–based prior, and a maximum–entropy approach. On balance, we conclude that the maximum–entropy approach is the least of several evils. Our results have implications for counterfactual prediction in other models with partial identification.

STICERD Econometrics seminars are held on Thursdays in term time at 14.00-15.30, ONLINE, unless specified otherwise.

Seminar organisers: Professor Tai Otsu and Dr. Vassilis Hajivassiliou.

For further information please contact Lubala Chibwe, either by email: l.chibwe@lse.ac.uk.

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This event will take place in 32L 3.05, 3rd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH. The building is labelled on the map.

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