IFS-STICERD Public Economics Seminar
Measuring employer-to-employer reallocation
Fabien Postel-Vinay (University College London)
Wednesday 24 March 2021 16:30 - 17:30
Due to the onging coronavirus outbreak, many of our seminars and public events this year will continue as online seminars. Please check our website listings and Twitter feed @STICERD_LSE for updates.
About this event
We revisit measurement of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions, the main engine of labor market competition and employment reallocation, in the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). We follow Fallick and Fleischman (2004) and exploit a key survey question introduced with the 1994 CPS redesign. We detect a sudden and sharp increase in the incidence of missing answers to this question starting in 2007, when the U.S. Census Bureau introduced a change in survey methodology, the Respondent Identification Policy (RIP). We show evidence of selection into answering the EE question by both observable and unobservable characteristics that correlate with EE mobility. We propose a selection model and a procedure to impute missing answers to the key survey question, thus EE transitions, after the introduction of the RIP. Our imputed EE series restores a close congruence with the business cycle, especially with the onset of the Great Recession, exhibits a much less dramatic cyclical drop and a full recovery by 2016, and all but eliminates the spurious appearance of declining EE dynamism in the US labor market after 2000. We also offer the first evidence of the (large and negative) impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EE mobility.
This seminar series is jointly organized by the IFS and STICERD.
IFS-STICERD Public Economics seminars are held on Wednesdays in term time at 16:30-17:30, ONLINE, unless specified otherwise.
Seminar organisers: Stuart Adam (IFS), Monica Costa Dias (IFS), Xavier Jaravel (LSE), Camille Landais (LSE), Attila Lindner (UCL), Joana Naritomi (LSE), and Johannes Spinnewijn (LSE).
For further information please contact Lubala Chibwe, either by email: firstname.lastname@example.org.
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