On Local Projection Based Inference

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This Montiel Olea and Plagborg-Møller (2021) recently propose robust confidence intervals for impulse responses based on the lag-augmented local projection regression, under the full mean independence assumption on the shock process. We show that their uniformity result remains valid for a more general class of martingale difference shocks, as long as score contributions of the lag-augmented regression are serially uncorrelated. We further propose new (tuning-parameter-free) robust confidence intervals which allow for general serial correlation in score contributions.