Economic inequality, political polarization and voter turnout

About this event

Rising economic inequality has often been associated with either increasing political polarization or decreasing voter turnout. The first link has strong empirical support, while for the second one the evidence is mixed. In this paper, I propose a theoretical model of political competition and provide a unified explanation for these trends, by accounting for the interconnections between inequality, polarization and turnout. I show that the direct effect of inequality on turnout is not straightforward. When candidates' polarization is initially low, rising economic inequality tends to decrease turnout; the opposite is true for initially high polarization. However, an increase in inequality also induces candidates to adapt their platforms and increases polarization, which has an indirect effect on participation. Finally, although inequality increases the demand for redistribution in the electorate, because of higher polarization, it may provide an advantage to the candidate who proposes less redistribution.