Fear and Dreams: Social origins of paramilitary behavior in Colombia

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We study variation in the governing strategies adopted by paramilitary fronts in Colombia between 2000 and 2006. We hypothesize that the social background of the front commanders was a prime determinant of the variation, specifically in the combinations of violence (fear) and public goods (dreams). In particular, campesinos (peasant) were more likely to have developed preferences characterized by reciprocity. We develop a model of reciprocity which predicts that more reciprocal commanders should provide both more public goods and more violence. The model also implies that such fronts should endure longer. Using a new dataset constructed from court records, transitional Justice documents and the media and using a regression discontinuity design we find support for all the predictions.