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STICERD Economic Theory Seminars

Nuclear Brinkmanship and Institution

Nicolas Bonneton (Mannheim)

Thursday 30 November 2023 15:30 - 17:00

Many of our seminars and public events this year will continue as in person or as hybrid (online and in person) events. Please check our website listings and Twitter feed @STICERD_LSE for updates.

Unless otherwise specified, in-person seminars are open to the public.

Those unable to join the seminars in-person are welcome to participate via zoom if the event is hybrid.

About this event

This paper studies the interplay between political institutions and the likelihood of a nuclear war. In our model, two nuclear powers are in a state of conflict; civilians affect how extractive their institutions are; political leaders bargain and may resort to nuclear brinkmanship. We show that the country with a weaker conventional army is more autocratic, is the only one engaging in nuclear brinkmanship, and, in expectation is defeated. Unequal military power increases the likelihood of a nuclear war, with endogenous institutions acting as catalysts.

Economic Theory Seminars are held on Thursdays in term time at 15:30-17:00, both ONLINE and IN PERSON in SAL 3.05.

Seminar organisers: Dr Andrew Ellis and Dr Christopher Sandmann.

For further information please contact Sadia Ali:

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