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CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars

Putting Quantitative Models to the Test: An Application to Trump's Trade War

Dave Donaldson (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), joint with Rodrigo Adao and Arnaud Costinot

Monday 20 November 2023 12:00 - 13:30

Many of our seminars and public events this year will continue as in person or as hybrid (online and in person) events. Please check our website listings and Twitter feed @STICERD_LSE for updates.

Unless otherwise specified, in-person seminars are open to the public.

Those unable to join the seminars in-person are welcome to participate via zoom if the event is hybrid.

About this event

The primary motivation behind quantitative modeling in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes. To help assess and potentially strengthen the credibility of such quantitative predictions we introduce an IV-based goodness-of-fit measure that provides the basis for testing causal predictions in arbitrary general-equilibrium environments as well as for estimating the average misspecification in these predictions. As an illustration of how to use our IV-based goodness-of-fit measure in practice, we revisit the welfare consequences of Trump's trade war predicted by Fajgelbaum et al. (2020).

Applications (Applied Micro) Seminars are held on Mondays in term time at 12:00-13:30 in SAL 3.05 in person.

Seminar organiser: Maitreesh Ghatak

For further information please contact Sadia Ali:

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