CASEpaper

The bottom line and the top line: insights from poverty measurement for developing an extreme wealth line

Tania Burchardt, Ingrid Robeyns and Michael Vaughan

There is increasing interest globally in making extreme wealth more visible, governable, and accountable for the harms it generates. One contribution to that agenda would be the development of a social indicator of extre...Read more...

CASEreport

Sustainable Communities Area Report: Birmingham

Ellie Benton and LSE Housing and Communities

This is one in a series of 12 area reports in LSE Housing and Community’s Sustainable Communities research project. The project explores how 12 low-income neighbourhoods in Britain have changed since 2010 and how they ca...Read more...

CASEreport

Sustainable Communities Area Report: Redcar

Joseph Usher and LSE Housing and Communities

This is one in a series of 12 area reports in LSE Housing and Community’s Sustainable Communities research project. The project explores how 12 low-income neighbourhoods in Britain have changed since 2010 and how they ca...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Fragility of joint identification in the Roy model

Takahiro Hoshino, Taisuke Otsu and Kazuhiko Shinoda

Heckman and Honore (1990) identify the joint distribution of latent sector-specific outcomes in a nonparametric Roy model. This note isolates the measurement condition behind that result. The identifying force is not the...Read more...

CASEreport

Quantifying multiple insecurities in financial, housing, work, health and caring: trends, breakdowns by characteristics and impacts on wellbeing

Abigail McKnight

This novel quantitative study of multiple insecurity demonstrates that it is possible to operationalise the concept using data on adults living in the UK to estimate prevalence and trends, and identify who is most at ris...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Two-sample instrumental variable regression with many instruments

Yukitoshi Matsushita, Yuta Okamoto and Taisuke Otsu

This paper develops estimation and inference methods for two-sample instrumental variables (TSIV) regression when the number of instruments k grows proportionally with sample size n. Under this asymptotic setting, we sho...Read more...

CASEreport

Replacing Empty Spaces with Productive, Green Places

Laura Lane and Bert Provan

LSE research, commissioned by Habitat for Humanity GB (HFHGB) and M&G plc, highlights opportunities for the conversion of disused buildings into new homes to help tackle housing affordability and the climate crisis. ...Read more...

Journal Article

Oxford Review of Economic Policy:

A new model of parental time investments: A paradigm shift for addressing gender inequality in the labor market.

Pilar Cuevas-Ruiz, Jose Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal, Sveva Manfredi and Almudena Sevilla

This paper introduces a new framework for understanding the persistence of the motherhood penalty by emphasizing the role of on-call care. Using a pseudo-panel event study based on the 2003–2022 American Time Use Survey ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Poverty Traps

Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Anton Heil and Munshi Sulaiman

Poverty traps are among the most influential yet elusive ideas in economics. This chapter reviews the challenges involved in identifying poverty traps and surveys the progress made over the past quarter century. It exami...Read more...

Journal Article

Science:

Using Markets to Adapt to Climate Change

Clare Balboni, Lint Barrage, Ian W. Bolliger, Judson Boomhower, Delavane Diaz, Hannah Druckenmiller, Teevrat Garg, Simon Greenhill, Miyuki Hino, Harrison Hong, Solomon Hsiang, Carolyn Kousky, Jeremy Martinich, Ishan Nath, Kimberly L. Oremus, R. Jisung Park, Toan Phan, Jonathan Proctor, Will Rafey, Marcus C. Sarofim, Wolfram Schlenker and Benjamin Simon

This Science paper (2026) argues that climate adaptation needs to complement emissions reduction, as climate impacts will persist even under ambitious mitigation scenarios. The authors-including Clare Balboni (LSE)-highl...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Lee bounds for random objects

Daisuke Kurisu, Yuta Okamoto and Taisuke Otsu

In applied research, Lee (2009) bounds are widely applied to bound the average treat- ment effect in the presence of selection bias. This paper extends the methodology of Lee bounds to accommodate outcomes in a general m...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

GMM under finite-population asymptotics: instrumental variables and regression adjustment

Haruo Kakehi, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper extends the finite-population asymptotic approach by Abadie et al. (2014, 2020) to the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for moment condition models. Motivating examples include instrumental variab...Read more...

Journal Article

Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation:

Markets and New Industrial Policy: Systemic directionality or polycentric evolutionism?

Bryan Cheang and Mark Pennington

Proponents of “new industrial policy” claim that systemic directionality can be imparted to market economies in ways recognising the epistemic challenges of complexity and uncertainty. This paper evaluates these efforts ...Read more...

CASEreport

The Ethnic Wealth Divide in the UK: Mapping Disparities Across Time, Age and Immigrant Generations

Eleni Karagiannaki

This study uses data from the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (Understanding Society), to provide evidence on how ethnic wealth gaps have changed since 2012/14, how they evolve with age and whether there is any evidence...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Difference-in-differences with interval data

Daisuke Kurisu, Yuta Okamoto and Taisuke Otsu

Difference-in-differences (DID) is one of the most popular tools used to evaluate causal effects of policy interventions. This paper extends the DID methodology to accommodate interval outcomes, which are often encounter...Read more...

CASEpaper

Does The Scottish Child Payment Weaken Work Incentives?

Suzanna Nesom, Kitty Stewart and Emma Tominey

The Scottish Child Payment (SCP), introduced in 2021, provides cash transfers for families with children receiving Universal Credit (UC) or related benefits. The eligibility link to UC can create a potential cliff-edge a...Read more...

CASEpaper

Investing in Children: Early findings on the difference the Scottish Child Payment makes to child well-being

Kate Andersen, Suzanna Nesom, Ruth Patrick, Ilona Pinter, Kitty Stewart and Emma Tominey

Recent years have seen a divergence in welfare of Scotland compared to other UK nations. The Scottish Government has used its devolved powers on social security to introduce a package of five Family Payments, the centrep...Read more...

Journal Article

Journal of social policy:

Refraining long-term care policy: from services to social determinants

Tania Burchardt

The organisation and financing of services dominate long-term care policy and research. This article argues for reorientation towards the social determinants of long-term care and the inequalities they generate. Building...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Empirical likelihood for random forests and ensembles

Harold D Chiang and Taisuke Otsu

We develop an empirical likelihood (EL) framework for random forests and related ensemble methods, providing a likelihood-based approach to quantify their statistical uncertainty. Exploiting the incomplete U-statistic st...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Random sets from the perspective of metric statistics

Daisuke Kurisu, Yuta Okamoto and Taisuke Otsu

Since the seminal work by Beresteanu and Molinari (2008), the random set theory and related inference methods have been widely applied in partially identified econometric models. Meanwhile, there is an emerging field in ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Applications of cross-fit variance estimator for testing model specification, overidentification, and structural parameter hypotheses

Yukitoshi Matsushita, Taisuke Otsu and Keita Sunada

This paper advocates that power improvement based on the cross-fit variance estimator, proposed by Mikusheva and Sun (2022), is generally applicable to other econometric inference problems, where the statistics of intere...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Causal inference with auxiliary observations

Takahiro Hoshino, Yuta Ota and Taisuke Otsu

In the evaluation of social programs, it is often difficult to conduct randomized controlled experiments due to non-compliance; therefore the local average treatment effect (LATE) is commonly applied. However, LATE...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Subject beliefs estimators and their properties

Anisha Ghosh and Taisuke Otsu

Information-theoretic methods recover investors’ subjective beliefs by minimizing the statistical discrepancy between beliefs and the DGP, subject to assets’ Euler constraints. We show that the estimated beliefs converge...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Optimal covariate selection and higher-order accurate inference for randomized experiments

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

Randomized experiments have been widely applied in empirical research. In modern applications, researchers often have access to a large number of covariates, and the methods of covariate adjustment are commonly employed....Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Specification testing for binary choice model via maximum score

Yuta Ota and Taisuke Otsu

This paper proposes a Hausman type statistic to test specification of a parametric binary choice model by comparing the maximum likelihood estimator and maximum score estimator. Although the convergence rates are differe...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Optimal testing in a class of nonregular models

Taisuke Otsu and Yuya Shimizu

This paper studies optimal hypothesis testing for nonregular econometric models with parameter-dependent support. We consider both one-sided and two-sided hypothesis testing and develop asymptotically uniformly most powe...Read more...

Journal Article

The Review of Economic Studies:

The Origins and Control of Forest Fires in the Tropics

Clare Balboni, Robin Burgess and Benjamin Olken

Environmental externalities-uncompensated damages imposed on others-lie at the root of climate change, pollution, deforestation and biodiversity loss. Empirical evidence is limited, however, as to how externalities drive...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric and nonparametric instrumental variable estimation with first stage isotonic regression

Taisuke Otsu, Kazuhiko Shinoda and Mengshan Xu

This paper proposes a semiparametric and a nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) estimator, under the assumption that the conditional mean of the endogenous variable, given the instrumental variable, is known to be mo...Read more...

Journal Article

Review of Economic Studies:

The Child Penalty Atlas

Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais and Gabriel Leite-Mariante

This paper builds a world atlas of child penalties in employment based on microdata from 134 countries. The estimation of child penalties is based on pseudo-event studies of first child birth using cross-sectional data. ...Read more...

CASEreport

Sustainable Communities: Findings from the resident interviews

Ellie Benton and LSE Housing and Communities

This report presents headline findings from interviews with 100 residents living in ten low-income neighbourhoods across England. This is the first in a series of reports summarising our current research into the areas. ...Read more...

Journal Article

Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics:

Spatial environmental economics

Clare Balboni and Joseph S. Shapiro

This chapter examines the role of spatial sorting in shaping economic inequality in the United States. We first document the evolution of firm and worker sorting by skill level between 1980 and 2017. We highlight a shift...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Cross-fitted instrumental variable estimation with many instruments and many included exogenous regressors

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper is concerned with estimation and inference on structural parameters in instrumental variable regression models that involve not only many weak instruments but also many included exogenous regressors. This sett...Read more...

CASEbrief

Baking inequality in from birth: New analysis of the way the two-child limit and the benefit cap intersect with ethnicity

Justice Aina, Ruth Patrick, Aaron Reeves, Thomas Stephens and Kitty Stewart

This briefing paper contains new quantitative evidence on the way the twochild limit and benefit cap affect children from different ethnic backgrounds. Drawing on official statistics and our own analysis of the Family R...Read more...

CASEreport

Insecure lives and the policy disconnect: overview of the literature on measures, trends, impact and mechanisms for six dimensions of insecurity

Irene Bucelli and Stuart Henderson

The Insecure Lives project developed a novel understanding of the concept of ‘multiple insecurities’. Understood as both objective or subjective downside risks for people’s quality of life, multiple insecurities encompas...Read more...

CASEreport

CASE Annual Report 2024

The 2024 CASE Annual Report includes an overview of our Centre’s work, updates from our staff, PhDs, visitors and associates, and summaries of publications and events from last year. It includes a set of articles showcas...Read more...

Journal Article

Journal of Labor Economics:

The Search for Good Jobs: Evidence from a Six-Year Field Experiment in Uganda

Oriana Bandiera, Vittorio Bassi, Robin Burgess, Imran Rasul, Munshi Sulaiman and Anna Vitali

There are 420 million young people in Africa today, and only one in three has a regular salaried job. We study how two common labor market interventions-vocational training and matching-affect the job search behavior of ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Geodesic regression discontinuity designs for functional data and random objects in geodesic spaces

Daisuke Kurisu, Hans-Georg Mueller, Taisuke Otsu and Yidong Zhou

Regression discontinuity designs, quasi-experimental designs for observational studies to estimate causal effects of an intervention or treatment at a cutoff point, have been widely applied in various fields of data scie...Read more...

CASEreport

Insecure lives: The growth and impact of multiple insecurities

Rebecca Tunstall, Irene Bucelli, Irena Grugulis, Stuart Henderson, Laura Lane, Helen Lomax, Anita Mangan, Abigail McKnight, Jonathan Payne, Sally Pearse, Laura Sorvala and Jonathan Webb

‘Multiple insecurity’ is insecurity in more than one important dimension of life, such as money, work, housing, food, health or care. This research explored the prevalence and impact of multiple insecurities, through lit...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Geodesic synthetic control methods for random objects and functional data

Daisuke Kurisu, Hans-Georg Mueller, Taisuke Otsu and Yidong Zhou

We introduce a geodesic synthetic control method for causal inference that extends existing synthetic control methods to scenarios where outcomes are elements in a geodesic metric space rather than scalars. Examples of s...Read more...

CASEreport

The Co-operation in Social Housing Commission: Report One - Learning from Experience

Ellie Benton

The Co-operation in Social Housing Commission aims to explore ways of increasing co-operation and power sharing between social housing residents and landlords, and what happens when residents and social housing providers...Read more...

CASEreport

Mitigating the Impacts of Overcrowding in the London Borough of Newham

Laura Lane and Bert Provan

Between 2022 and 2024, LSE Housing and Communities conducted research into overcrowding in the London Borough of Newham, and how the harms of overcrowding can be mitigated. This final report brings together data analysis...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Geodesic difference-in-differences

Daisuke Kurisu, Hans-Georg Mueller, Taisuke Otsu and Yidong Zhou

Difference-in-differences (DID) is a widely used quasi-experimental design for causal inference, traditionally applied to scalar or Euclidean outcomes, while extensions to outcomes residing in non-Euclidean spaces remain...Read more...

Journal Article

American Economic Review:

In Harm's Way? Infrastructure Investments and the Persistence of Coastal Cities

Clare Balboni

Coasts contain a disproportionate share of the world's population, reflecting historical advantages, but environmental change threatens a reversal of coastal fortune in the coming decades as natural disasters intensify a...Read more...

CASEpaper

Unseen Children: The hidden lives of children in families seeking asylum in the UK

Ilona Pinter

Children seeking asylum with their families in the UK face significant challenges and marginalisation, yet they are rarely acknowledged in public and policy discourses and in publicly available data. This working paper s...Read more...

CASEreport

Mapping Under-Occupation in London

Ellie Benton

This research aims to act as a preliminary piece of work that sets out an up-to-date picture of under-occupation in London, identifying which geographic areas, tenures, household types and ethnic groups are most likely t...Read more...

CASEpaper

A decade on: Walking the sharp edge of the UK’s social security system

Amanda Light and Ruth Patrick

The UK’s social security landscape and public services infrastructure have been transformed since the Conservatives took office in 2010, initially as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The collision of auste...Read more...

CASEpaper

Social Class and Social Mobility Differences in Intergenerational Exchanges of Practical and Financial Support in the UK

Eleni Karagiannaki, Tania Burchardt and Xingna Zhang

How do patterns of intergenerational support vary across social class groups and by upwards or downwards social mobility? Are the patterns observed consistent with reciprocity, altruism, status reproduction or something ...Read more...

CASEreport

CASE Annual Report 2023

The 2023 CASE Annual Report includes an overview of our Centre’s work, updates from our staff, PhDs, visitors and associates, and summaries of publications and events from last year. It includes a set of articles showcas...Read more...

Journal Article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

The Role of the Ask Gap in Gender Pay Inequality

Nina Roussille

The gender ask gap measures the extent to which women ask for lower salaries than comparable men. This article studies its role in generating wage inequality, using novel data from an online recruitment platform for full...Read more...

Journal Article

Journal of Financial Economics:

Refinancing Cross-Subsidies in the Mortgage Market

Jack Fisher, Alessandro Gavazza, Lu Liu, Tarun Ramadorai and Jagdish Tripathy

In household finance markets, inactive households can implicitly cross-subsidize active households who promptly respond to financial incentives. We assess the magnitude and distribution of cross-subsidies in the mortgage...Read more...

CASEpaper

Capped and trapped (in the UK's housing market): how the benefit cap makes it almost impossible to find affordable housing

Mark Fransham, Kate Andersen, Ruth Patrick, Aaron Reeves and Kitty Stewart

The benefit cap places an upper limit on the total amount a family can receive in financial support from the government in a given year. Many of those subject to the cap live in high rent properties and one stated goal f...Read more...

CASEpaper

An impossible move? Households' experiences of trying to escape the Benefit Cap

Ruth Patrick, Kate Andersen, Kitty Stewart, Aaron Reeves and Mark Fransham

Recent governments have increasingly used their power to attempt to alter the behaviour of people in receipt of social security benefits. This can be seen in the case of the Benefit Cap, a policy introduced with a specif...Read more...

Journal Article

Oxford Open Economics:

Women and men at work

Alison Andrew, Oriana Bandiera, Monica Costa Dias and Camille Landais

We explore gender inequalities in paid and unpaid work with a focus on the UK. The average working-age woman in the UK earned 40% less than her male counterpart in 2019; sizeable gender gaps in participation, hours worke...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Geodesic causal inference

Daisuke Kurisu, Hans-Georg Mueller, Taisuke Otsu and Yidong Zhou

Adjusting for confounding and imbalance when establishing statistical relationships is an increasingly important task, and causal inference methods have emerged as the most popular tool to achieve this. Causal inference ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Multivariate kernel regression in vector and product metric spaces

Marcia M Schafgans and Victoria Zinde-Walsh

Nonparametric kernel regression is widely used in econometrics and has been applied to models with cross-sectional, time series and panel data. As functional data analysis is gaining attention, our analysis extends to th...Read more...

CASEreport

The Value of Local: An evaluation of the neighbourhood management approach of EastendHomes

Laura Lane

The LSE Housing and Communities team at the Centre for the Analysis of Social Exclusion (CASE) was commissioned in 2019 to carry out an evaluation of the neighbourhood management approach of EastendHomes. This report ...Read more...

CASEreport

On Our Side: Improving services for young people experiencing homelessness

Laura Lane, Ellie Benton and Ruby Russell

Estimates suggest that almost half of all young people experiencing homelessness do not contact their local authority, or face barriers in doing so. And only 38% of those who do get a positive outcome. In the autumn of 2...Read more...

CASEpaper

Fair decarbonisation of housing in the UK: A sufficiency approach

Ian Gough, Stefan Horn, Charlotte Rogers and Rebecca Tunstall

This paper addresses a neglected aspect of the UK housing crisis: how to rapidly but fairly decarbonise the housing stock to meet tough net zero targets while meeting housing needs of the entire population. To do so the ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Empirical likelihood for manifolds

Daisuke Kurisu and Taisuke Otsu

There has been growing interest in statistical analysis on random objects taking values in a non-Euclidean metric space. One important class of such objects consists of data on manifolds. This article is concerned with i...Read more...

CASEreport

Creating a 21st Century Estate: The experiences of Lancaster West Estate residents. First Stage Report

LSE Housing and Communities

Following the Grenfell Tower tragedy, a commitment was made by all levels of government for Lancaster West Estate, where the Tower stands, to become a “model 21st century social housing estate”, through a resident-led re...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Public service delivery, exclusion and externalities: Theory and experimental evidence from India

Alex Armand, Britta Augsburg, Antonella Bancalari and Maitreesh Ghatak

This study explores the interaction between the quality of public services, the implementation of user fees, and the resulting potential for exclusion, that can lead to negative externalities. Our theoretical framework t...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Organisation form and river quality: Theory and evidence from China

Linchuan Xu

Should the government set up a separate ministry for all environmental issues, or ask all the existing decentralized and regional political organizations to have an environment mandate? This paper studies how organizatio...Read more...

CASEpaper

Inequalities in provision for primary children with special educational needs and / or disabilities (SEND) by local area deprivation

Tammy Campbell

This paper explores how area deprivation-level is related to primary school children’s chances of: a) being allocated statutory support for special educational needs and / or disabilities (SEND) through an Education, Hea...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Making the invisible hand visible: Managers and the allocation of workers to jobs

Virginia Minni

Why do managers matter for firm performance? This paper provides evidence of the critical role of managers in matching workers to jobs within the firm using the universe of personnel records from a large multinational fi...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric causal inference with functional covariates

Daisuke Kurisu, Taisuke Otsu and Mengshan Xu

Functional data and their analysis have become increasingly popular in various fields of data sciences. This paper considers estimation and inference of the average treatment effect under unconfoundedness when the covari...Read more...

CASEreport

Independent Review of Krakow Metropolitan Area 2030 Strategy

Bert Provan, Aleksandra Jadach-Sepiolo, Neil Lee, Max Herbertson and Kath Scanlon

This report was commissioned by the European Investment Bank to provide a review of the Krakow Metropolitan Area (KMA) Strategy 2030. The objectives were to review: How the strategic objectives in the KMA 2030 strate...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Inference in the presence of unknown rates

Hao Dong, Taisuke Otsu and Luke Taylor

The convergence rate of an estimator can vary when applied to datasets from differ- ent populations. As the population is unknown in practice, so is the corresponding convergence rate. In this paper, we introduce a metho...Read more...

CASEreport

The Social and Economic Value of Wheelchair User Homes

Bert Provan and Laura Lane

People who use wheelchairs can benefit in many ways from living in homes which are designed to meet their needs. They can enjoy a much greater independence and ability to do everyday tasks such as showering, cooking, usi...Read more...

Journal Article

Annual Review Economics:

The Economics of Tropical Deforestation

Clare Balboni, Aaron Berman, Robin Burgess and Benjamin Olken

Two factors have elevated recent academic and policy interest in tropical deforestation: first, the realization that it is a major contributor to climate change; and second, a revolution in satellite-based measurement th...Read more...

CASEpaper

Change, stagnation, and polarisation in UK job quality, 2012-2021: Evidence from a new Quality of Work index

Thomas Stephens

This paper presents results from a new synthetic index of multi-dimensional Quality of Work (QoW) for the UK, using data from five waves of Understanding Society (Waves 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12) covering the years 2012-2013 to...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

Trends in Adolescent Disadvantage: Policy and Outcomes for Young People under Labour, the Coalition, and the Conservatives (1997 to 2019)

Moira Wallace

Over the last two decades, England has seen two enormous waves of change in the government’s approach to children and young people. The first wave of change was conducted by the 1997-2010 Labour government and involved s...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Empirical likelihood for network data

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This article develops a concept of nonparametric likelihood for network data based on network moments, and proposes general inference methods by adapting the theory of jackknife empirical likelihood. Our methodology can ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Model averaging for global Fréchet regression

Daisuke Kurisu and Taisuke Otsu

Petersen and Müller (2019) generalized the notion of regression analysis to non-Euclidean response objects. Meanwhile, in the conventional regression analysis, model averaging has long history and is widely applied in st...Read more...

CASEpaper

Making Work Pay? The labour market effects of capping child benefits in larger families

Mary Reader, Kate Andersen, Ruth Patrick, Aaron Reeves and Kitty Stewart

Child benefits are typically paid on a per-child basis, without restrictions on family size. In this paper we generate unique evidence on the effects of capping child benefits by family size by examining the introduction...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

The Conservative Governments’ Record on Higher Education: Policy, Spending and Outcomes, May 2015 to pre-COVID 2020

Abigail McKnight and Polina Obolenskaya

In this paper we evaluate the distributional impact of higher education policy in the period since the Conservative government took office in 2015 up until the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020. We do this by fo...Read more...

CASEpaper

The sins of the parents: Conceptualising adult-oriented reforms to family policy

Kitty Stewart, Ruth Patrick and Aaron Reeves

A core element of a welfare state is the support that is provided to families with children, in recognition of the additional needs that dependent children create. Variation in the design, generosity and implementation o...Read more...

CASEreport

CASE Annual Report 2022

We are delighted to share with you our annual report for 2022 which this year is a bumper edition. In September we celebrated our 25th birthday with a special event to mark the occasion and this year’s annual report is ...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

Going backwards? The slowdown, stalling and reversal of progress in reducing child poverty in Britain during the second decade of the 21st century, and the groups of children that were affected.

Polly Vizard, Polina Obolenskaya and Kritty Treebhoohun

This paper has been written as part of the Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes (SPDO) research programme and provides an in-depth assessment of the slowdown, stalling and reversal of progress in reducing child po...Read more...

CASEreport

Community Responses to the Cost-of-Living Crisis

Ellie Benton and Anne Power

The cost-of-living crisis is affecting households across the UK, many of whom are increasingly struggling to meet day-to-day costs, including energy, food, transport, and other essentials. With limited state support to a...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Regression adjustment in randomized controlled trials with many covariates

Harold D Chiang, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper is concerned with estimation and inference on average treatment effects in randomized controlled trials when researchers observe potentially many covariates. By em- ploying Neyman’s (1923) finite population pe...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

Public and private welfare activity in England, 1979 to 2019 (Revised version June 2024).

Mary Reader and Tania Burchardt

(REVISED VERSION, published in June 2024) This paper offers an empirical account of the changing landscape of private and public welfare activity in England over the forty years prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. It forms a...Read more...

CASEreport

Cost-benefit analysis of extending support to domestic abuse victims with NRPF: A technical report for the Domestic Abuse Commissioner

Kath Scanlon, Bert Provan, Ria Ivandic, Mariña Fernández-Reino, Fanny Blanc and Christine Whitehead

This report provides the technical underpinning to the report by the Domestic Abuse Commissioner’s Report1 laid before Parliament in December 2022. That report was in response to the Home Office request that she set out ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Regression discontinuity design with potentially many covariates

Yoichi Arai, Taisuke Otsu and Myung Hwan Seo

This paper studies the case of possibly high-dimensional covariates in the regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. In particular, we propose estimation and inference methods for the RDD models with covariate sele...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

GLS under monotone heteroskedasticity

Yoichi Arai, Taisuke Otsu and Mengshan Xu

The generalized least square (GLS) is one of the most basic tools in regression analyses. A major issue in implementing the GLS is estimation of the conditional variance function of the error term, which typically requir...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Conditional likelihood ratio test with many weak instruments

Sreevidya Ayyar, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper extends validity of the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test developed by Moreira (2003) to instrumental variable regression models with unknown error variance and many weak instruments. In this setting, we...Read more...

CASEreport

Rough Sleeping in Newham: Policy into practice 2019-2022

Bert Provan

The London Borough of Newham had one of the worst records for rough sleeping in 2018, and lacked an up to date Homelessness and Rough Sleeping Strategy. Compiled over four years of engagement with the borough, this repor...Read more...

SPDO Knowledge Exchange Brief

Layers of engagement: learning from the Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes research programme public engagement exercise

Tania Burchardt, Bert Provan and Kerris Cooper

The purpose of this note is to share with the research community the lessons we feel we have learned from a public engagement exercise that we undertook, in collaboration with Sense about Science, as part of the Social P...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Isotonic propensity score matching

Taisuke Otsu and Mengshan Xu

We propose a one-to-many matching estimator of the average treatment effect based on propensity scores estimated by isotonic regression. The method relies on the monotonicity assumption on the propensity score function, ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Living arrangements, intra-household inequality and children’s deprivation: Evidence from EU-SILC

Eleni Karagiannaki and Tania Burchardt

Evidence from the 2014 EU-SILC indicates that a non-negligible proportion of children in Europe live in multi-family households. Leaving aside more complex household types, around 4% of children live with their grandpare...Read more...

CASEpaper

The two-child limit & ‘choices’ over family size: When policy presentation collides with lived experiences

Kate Andersen and Ruth Patrick

The two-child limit restricts the child element in Universal Credit and Tax Credits to two children in a household (for children born after April 2017). One objective of the two-child limit is to influence the fertility ...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

Understanding recent patterns in intergenerational social mobility: differences by gender, ethnicity, education, and their intersections

Lindsey Macmillan and Abigail McKnight

This paper presents new estimates of recent social mobility in the UK by gender, education and ethnicity, and their intersections. We measure absolute social class mobility using data from the Labour Force Survey 2014-20...Read more...

Journal Article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Why Do People Stay Poor?

Clare Balboni, Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Maitreesh Ghatak and Anton Heil

There are two broad views as to why people stay poor. One emphasizes differences in fundamentals, such as ability, talent, or motivation. The poverty traps view emphasizes differences in opportunities that stem from acce...Read more...

CASEreport

Climate Crisis/Housing Crisis: How can social landlords reconcile safety and energy saving?

Ellie Benton, Ruby Russell and Anne Power

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Minimax Risk in Estimating Kink Threshold and Testing

Javier Hidalgo, Heejun Lee, Jungyoon Lee and Myung Hwan Seo

We derive a risk lower bound in estimating the threshold parameter without knowing whether the threshold regression model is continuous or not. The bound goes to zero as the sample size n grows only at the cube root ra...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric prediction with spatial data

Abhimanyu Gupta and Javier Hidalgo

We describe a (nonparametric) prediction algorithm for spatial data, based on a canonical factorization of the spectral density function. We provide theoretical results showing that the predictor has desirable asymptot...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Bandwidth selection for nonparametric regression with errors-in-variables

Hao Dong, Taisuke Otsu and Luke Taylor

We propose two novel bandwidth selection procedures for the nonparametric regression model with classical measurement error in the regressors. Each method is based on evaluating the prediction errors of the regression us...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Estimating density ratio of marginals to joint: Applications to causal inference

Yukitoshi Matsushita, Taisuke Otsu and Keisuke Takahata

In various fields of data science, researchers often face problems of estimating the ratios of two probability densities. Particularly in the context of causal inference, the product of marginals for a treatment variable...Read more...

CASEreport

Oasis Community Housing: Review of change through COVID and beyond

Anne Power and Bert Provan

Small, locally based housing associations provide invaluable local services to homeless and rough sleeping people. Oasis Community Housing undertakes this work in Gateshead, Sunderland and South Tyneside, providing day c...Read more...

CASEpaper

No such thing as a free lunch? Exploring the consistency, validity, and uses of the ‘Free School Meals’ (FSM) measure in the National Pupil Database

Tammy Campbell and Polina Obolenskaya

This paper examines the existing literature on what the Free School Meals (‘FSM’) measure in the National Pupil Database (NPD) can proxy, and on ways in which the measure is used and understood. Through new empirical ana...Read more...

CASEbrief

Children and Families Seeking Asylum in the UK

Ilona Pinter

This CASEBrief provides a summary of new administrative data on children and families seeking asylum in the UK and those receiving support from the Home Office under the Asylum Support system. Much of the recent debate o...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic games: testing and estimation

Taisuke Otsu and Martin Pesendorfer

This paper surveys the recent literature on dynamic games estimation when there is a concern of equilibrium multiplicity. We focus on the questions of testing for equilibrium multiplicity and estimation in the presence o...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Multiway empirical likelihood

Harold D Chiang, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

his paper develops a general methodology to conduct statistical inference for observations indexed by multiple sets of entities. We propose a novel multiway empirical likeli- hood statistic that converges to a chi-square...Read more...

CASEreport

What is the role of housing associations in providing intermediate and market rented housing?

Ellie Benton and Anne Power

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric inference for extremal conditional quantiles

Daisuke Kurisu and Taisuke Otsu

This paper studies asymptotic properties of the local linear quantile estimator under the extremal order quantile asymptotics, and develops a practical inference method for conditional quantiles in extreme tail areas. By...Read more...

SPDO Knowledge Exchange Brief

Social care inequalities in England: evidence briefing

Nic Brimblecombe and Tania Burchardt

Adult social care in England is once again high on the political agenda. The government has announced the introduction of a lifetime cap on eligible care costs and a slightly less harsh means-test for publicly-funded car...Read more...

CASEpaper

A time of need: Exploring the changing poverty risk facing larger families in the UK

Kitty Stewart, Aaron Reeves and Ruth Patrick

Child poverty in the UK has seen rapid change over the last two decades, broadly falling from the late 1990s until 2012/13 and rising since then. As a result, child poverty rates converged with rates of poverty for worki...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

On linearization of nonparametric deconvolution estimators for repeated measurements model

Daisuke Kurisu and Taisuke Otsu

By utilizing intermediate Gaussian approximations, this paper establishes asymptotic linear representations of nonparametric deconvolution estimators for the classical measurement error model with repeated measurements. ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Special Educational Needs and Disabilities within the English primary school system: What can disproportionalities by season of birth contribute to understanding processes behind attributions and (lack of) provisions?

Tammy Campbell

This working paper uses de-identified National Pupil Database records spanning 2008 – 2018 (N children=6 million+) to map disproportionalities by birth season and gender in attributions of levels of Special Education...Read more...

Journal Article

AEA Papers and Proceedings:

Could Gentrification Stop the Poor from Benefiting from Urban Improvements?

Clare Balboni, Gharad Bryan, Melanie Morton and Bilal Siddiqi

When policymakers invest in urban infrastructure, there are concerns that poor residents living near the infrastructure will be displaced. This paper investigates mechanisms that may lead to such infrastructure-induced g...Read more...

Journal Article

AEA Papers and Proceedings:

Cycles of Fire? Politics and Forest Burning in Indonesia

Clare Balboni, Robin Burgess, Anton Heil, Jonathan Old and Benjamin Olken

This paper examines the link between electoral incentives and environmental degradation by exploiting a satellite dataset on 107,000 forest fires and 879 asynchronous district elections in Indonesia. Fires represent a ch...Read more...

EEE Working Paper

The Origins and Control of Forest Fires in the Tropics

Clare Balboni, Robin Burgess and Benjamin Olken

Pigou (1920) pointed to "uncompensated damage done to surrounding woods by sparks from railway engines" as the canonical example of an environmental externality. We study a modern corollary - tropical forest fires used f...Read more...

CASEbrief

Little fish, big streams: How do early in-class maths ‘ability’-groups and early teacher judgements relate to primary school children’s later maths self-concept?

Tammy Campbell

This paper summarises research examining predictors of primary school children’s maths self-concept at age 11. It finds that the in-class ‘ability’ group children were placed in four years earlier, at age seven, strongly...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

The Ruling Parties’ Record on Homelessness and Complex Needs (May 2015 to pre-COVID 2020)

Suzanne Fitzpatrick and Glen Bramley

This paper provides a comparative analysis of homelessness policy goals, expenditure and outcomes across Great Britain in the post-2015 period, setting these developments in their longer-term perspective. In England, a r...Read more...

Journal Article

Econometrica:

Long-Term Contracting With Time-Inconsistent Agents

Daniel Gottlieb and Xingtan Zhang

We study contracts between naive present-biased consumers and risk-neutral firms. We show that the welfare loss from present bias vanishes as the contracting horizon grows. This is true both when bargaining power is on t...Read more...

CASEpaper

The birthweight effects of universal child benefits in pregnancy: quasi-experimental evidence from England and Wales

Mary Reader

Over a decade ago, in April 2009, the UK Labour government introduced the Health in Pregnancy Grant (HPG), a cash transfer of the equivalent of child benefit over the third trimester (£190) as a lump sum to all pregnant ...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

The Conservative Governments’ Record on Social Security: Policies, Spending and Outcomes, May 2015 to pre-COVID 2020

Kerris Cooper and John Hills

This paper uses the Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes framework to evaluate how social security policies evolved, how public spending changed, the effects of these on the generosity of the system, and evidence ...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Overview Paper

The Conservative Governments' Record on Social Policy from May 2015 to pre-COVID 2020: Policies, Spending and Outcomes

This overview report provides an assessment of social policy developments under the three Conservative Governments that were in power between May 2015 and the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The report provid...Read more...

CASEreport

Community Responses to the Coronavirus Pandemic: Case Study Report

Ellie Benton and Anne Power

The COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown that followed created a unique set of circumstances: people over 70 and those with underlying health conditions were forced to self-isolate; day to day activities stopped; people be...Read more...

CASEreport

Community responses to the Coronavirus Pandemic: How mutual aid can help

Ellie Benton and Anne Power

The beginnings of the COVID-19 pandemic caused panic over job losses, food and toiletry shortages and social isolation, over and above the health impacts of the virus. People wanted to help on a mass scale and there was ...Read more...

CASEreport

Opening Doors: An evaluation of the London Borough of Newham's Housing First Pilot Project

Laura Lane, Anne Power and Bert Provan

In 2018, the London Borough of Newham (LBN) commissioned LSE Housing and Communities to undertake an evaluation of their "Housing First" pilot project. The main objectives for the evaluation were: 1. To understand the pr...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Reweighted nonparametric likelihood inference for linear functionals

Karun Adusumilli, Taisuke Otsu and Chen Qiu

This paper is concerned with inference on finite dimensional parameters in semiparametric moment condition models, where the moment functionals are linear with respect to unknown nuisance functions. By exploiting this li...Read more...

CASEpaper

Did the introduction of the benefit cap in Britain harm mental health? A natural experiment approach

Aaron Reeves, Mark Fransham, Kitty Stewart and Ruth Patrick

In November 2016, the UK government announced they would be lowering the benefit cap, the total amount a family with no-one in full-time employment can receive from the government in social security. This policy change r...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

The Conservatives’ Record on Adult Social Care: spending, policies and outcomes in England, May 2015 to pre-COVID 2020

Tania Burchardt, Polina Obolenskaya and Jarrod Hughes

This paper uses the Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes framework to evaluate developments in adult social care policies in England during the period between 2015 and the eve of COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

The Conservatives' Record on Compulsory education: spending, policies and outcomes in England, May 2015 to pre-COVID 2020

Ruth Lupton and Polina Obolenskaya

This paper reviews education policy in England for the period since the Conservative Government took office in 2015 to the eve of COVID-19 pandemic. We consider the effects of policies on the school system, teachers, cur...Read more...

CASEreport

Tackling Homelessness: Case Studies

LSE Housing and Communities

This report documents 17 case studies of homelessness provision and support in the United Kingdom. Promoting shared learning amongst the providers of homelessness support can improve the capacity and delivery of homeless...Read more...

CASEreport

Homelessness and Housing First: A guide to good practice

LSE Housing and Communities

This report explores the homelessness context in the UK, its causes, and the government's approach to tackling homelessness. It also provides evidence of successes and failures of three government funded Housing First pi...Read more...

CASEbrief

COVID-19: has the pandemic affected relationships between children and their non-resident parents?

Caroline Bryson and Stephen McKay

The well-being and outcomes of children living in separated families are associated with the quality of their relationship with their non-resident parent, and child maintenance provided by that parent. It is therefore im...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Government financing of R&D: A mechanism design approach

Saul Lach, Zvika Neeman and Mark Schankerman

We study how to design an optimal government loan program for risky R&D projects with positive externalities. With adverse selection, the optimal government contract involves a high interest rate but nearly zero co-finan...Read more...

SPDO Research Note

The post war welfare state: stages and disputes

Howard Glennerster

It has been suggested that the COVID epidemic, and its profound economic and social consequences, may produce major changes in the dominant ideas that help set the boundaries to social action. This note reflects on sig...Read more...

CASEreport

City of Walbrzych: Technical Assistance for Mitigating the Social and Economic Challenges of The City

Bert Provan, Aleksandra Jadach-Sepiolo and Maciej Borsa

This report addresses options for city renewal in the medium sized, but shrinking, Polish city of Walbrzych. It provides an overview of the impact of the rapid closure of the mining industry in the mid-1990s, in terms o...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Jackknife Lagrange multiplier test with many weak instruments

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper proposes a jackknife Lagrange multiplier (JLM) test for instrumental variable regression models, which is robust to (i) many instruments, where the number of instruments may increase proportionally with the sa...Read more...

SPDO Research Note

Does COVID-19 represent a 'new Beveridge' moment, a crisis that will wash away, or a call to action?

Tania Burchardt

Report of a roundtable discussion on theories of welfare...Read more...

CASEpaper

When and why might choice in public services have intrinsic (dis)value?

Aveek Bhattacharya

Governments in several countries have sought to increase choice in public services. Proponents claim the value of such choice is both instrumental (it improves outcomes) and intrinsic (choice is valuable in itself). Yet ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Development Policy through the Lens of Social Structure

Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Erika Deserranno, Ricardo Morel, Imran Rasul and Munshi Sulaiman

This paper studies how the social structure of village economies affects policy implementation by local agents. We randomly select one of two viable candidates to deliver an agricultural extension program in rural Uganda...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Second-order refinements for t-ratios with many instruments

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper studies second-order properties of the many instruments robust t-ratios based on the limited information maximum likelihood and Fuller estimators for instrumental variable regression models under the many inst...Read more...

CASEpaper

The financial resilience of households: 22 country study with new estimates, breakdowns by household characteristics and a review of policy options

Abigail McKnight and Mark Rucci

Some households are less resilient to financial shocks than others. This may be because they have low levels of savings, have limited access to affordable credit, already hold high levels of debt or lack the skills requi...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Policy decisions and evidence use among civil servants: A group decision experiment in Pakistan

Laura Metzger, Adnan Qadir Khan and Teddy Svoronos

In a lab-in-field experiment with elite civil servants in Pakistan, we investigate whether groups outperform individuals in a two-staged task which requires effective use of data and evidence. We also study how efficient...Read more...

Journal Article

Longitudinal and Life Course Studies:

Young British adults homeownership circumstances and the role of intergenerational transfers

Ellie Suh

Despite the continuing preference for homeownership, it has become increasingly difficult for young adults to own a home in Britain. House prices have increased faster than real earnings between the mid-1990s and the 201...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Why Do People Stay Poor?

Clare Balboni, Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Maitreesh Ghatak and Anton Heil

There are two views as to why people stay poor. The equal opportunity view emphasizes that differences in individual traits like talent or motivation make the poor choose low productivity jobs. The poverty traps view e...Read more...

CASEbrief

The National Living Wage and falling earnings inequality

Abigail McKnight and Kerris Cooper

The more generous National Living Wage replaced the National Minimum Wage for employees aged 25 and over in April 2016. In April 2020 it is due to increase to 60% of the average wage. In this policy brief we assess the ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Intra-household inequality and adult material deprivation in Europe

Eleni Karagiannaki and Tania Burchardt

In most research on living standards, material deprivation is measured using household-level material deprivation indicators. However, if resources are not shared equally within households, conventional material deprivat...Read more...

CASEreport

Extending the "move-on" period for newly granted refugees: Analysis of impacts and costs

Bert Provan

This report considers the impact of extending the "move-on" period (currently 28 days) which is allowed to refugees, once they are awarded Leave to Remain in the UK. This question arises for those refugees who were in re...Read more...

CASEreport

SUMMARY – Living on Different Incomes in London: Can public consensus identify a 'riches line'?

Tania Burchardt, Abigail Davis, Ian Gough, Katharina Hecht, Donald Hirsch, Karen Rowlingson and Kate Summers

There is widespread public and political concern about economic inequality in the UK today but relatively little research exploring people’s opinions about high incomes, wealth and what it means to be rich. This innovati...Read more...

CASEreport

Living on Different Incomes in London: Can public consensus identify a 'riches line'?

Abigail Davis, Katharina Hecht, Tania Burchardt, Ian Gough, Donald Hirsch, Karen Rowlingson and Kate Summers

London is home to vast and visible economic inequality, where the richest 10 per cent own 61 per cent of overall wealth, while at the same time four in ten Londoners do not earn enough for what is considered by the publi...Read more...

Journal Article

Journal of Poverty and Social Justice:

Universal simplicity? The alleged simplicity of Universal Credit from administrative and claimant perspectives

Kate Summers and David Young

A key aim of Universal Credit is to simplify the social security system. While several aspects of its introduction have received critical attention, this overarching aim continues to receive acceptance and support. Drawi...Read more...

CASEreport

Understanding the relationship between inequalities and poverty: policy toolkit

Irene Bucelli, Abigail McKnight and Kate Summers

This toolkit examines policies with a potential 'double dividend': policies that could lead to reductions in both poverty and inequality in the UK. The selection of policies has been informed by a larger research progra...Read more...

CASEbrief

Caught between the local and the (trans)national: EU citizens at the front-line of German welfare policy

Nora Ratzmann

The study reflected on what happens when EU migrant applicants claim poverty-relieving, non-contributory UB II benefits in local German job centres. The data challenged the common pretence of EU policy debates that the s...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Switching Regressions with Imperfect Regime Classification Information: Theory and Applications

V A Hajivassiliou

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric intermediate order regression quantiles

Hidehiko Ichimura, Taisuke Otsu and Joseph Altonji

This paper studies nonparametric estimation of d-dimensional conditional quantile functions and their derivatives in the tails. We investigate asymptotic properties of the local and global nonparametric quantile regressi...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Novel Approaches to Coherency Conditions in Dynamic LDV Models: Quantifying Financing Constraints and a Firm's Decision and Ability to Innovate

V A Hajivassiliou, Frédérique Savignac and Frédérique Savignac

We develop novel methods for establishing coherency conditions in Static and Dynamic Limited Dependent Variables (LDV) Models. We propose estimation strategies based on Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation for simul...Read more...

CASEpaper

Understanding the relationship between inequalities and poverty: a review of dynamic mechanisms

Magali Duque and Abigail McKnight

In this paper we examine the evidence on how dynamic mechanisms, which include earnings and income mobility, poverty dynamics, social mobility and the accumulation of risk and advantage over the lifecycle, may be a contr...Read more...

CASEreport

Estate Regeneration and Social Value

Bert Provan and Anne Power

Home Group is committed to assessing the social value to low income communities of regeneration and upgrading. This research was commissioned by Home Group and closely links to their recently developed “Customer Promise”...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

Physical safety and Security: Policies, spending and outcomes 2015-2020

Kerris Cooper and Nicola Lacey

This paper sets out to evaluate the development of policy in relation to physical safety and security in the period since the Conservative Government took office in 2015. Whilst people’s physical safety and security depe...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Jackknife, small bandwidth and high-dimensional asymptotics

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper sheds light on problems of statistical inference under alternative or nonstandard asymptotic frameworks from the perspective of jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL). Examples include small bandwidth asymptotic...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

On the uniform convergence of deconvolution estimators from repeated measurements

Daisuke Kurisu and Taisuke Otsu

This paper studies the uniform convergence rates of Li and Vuong's (1998) nonparametric deconvolution estimator and its regularized version by Comte and Kappus (2015) for the classical measurement error model, where repe...Read more...

CASEpaper

Understanding the relationship between poverty, inequality and growth: a review of existing evidence

Abigail McKnight

This paper reviews the theoretical literature and empirical evidence on the relationship between poverty, inequality and economic growth. It finds evidence that economic inequality is good for growth as well as new conv...Read more...

CASEreport

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Managing the Unmanageable: Debt and Financial Resilience in Newham

Laura Lane and Anne Power

An executive summary of CASEreport 123 (https://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cr/casereport123.pdf) which aims to understand the links between work, low pay, benefits, credit, debt, and savings among low-income households i...Read more...

CASEreport

Managing the Unmanageable: Debt and financial resilience in Newham

Laura Lane and Anne Power

This research aims to understand the links between work, low pay, benefits, credit, debt, and savings among low-income households in East London. Our work around debt and financial resilience in Newham goes back a number...Read more...

CASEpaper

Understanding the relationship between inequalities and poverty: mechanisms associated with crime, the legal system and punitive sanctions

Magali Duque and Abigail McKnight

This paper outlines the various issues pertaining to how crime, the legal system and punitive sanctions may provide a mechanism through which inequality is positively related to poverty. We analyse trends in crime rates...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

Flat-lining or seething beneath the surface? Two decades of changing economic inequality in the UK

Polina Obolenskaya and John Hills

This paper analyses what happened to economic inequalities in the United Kingdom in the two decades from 1995-96. In aggregate, inequality changes were unremarkable, especially by comparison with sharp increases in the ...Read more...

CASEbrief

Inequalities in the experience of early education in England: Access, peer groups and transitions

Tammy Campbell, Ludovica Gambaro and Kitty Stewart

There are long-standing disparities in child development between children from different backgrounds. Progress in narrowing gaps is slow and differences remain wide, especially by household income. This Nuffield Found...Read more...

CASEpaper

Reducing Mommy Penalties with Daddy Quotas

Allison Dunatchik and Berkay Özcan

This paper investigates whether daddy quotas - non-transferable paternity leave policies - mitigate motherhood penalties women face in the labor market. Using the introduction of a daddy quota in Quebec, Canada as a natu...Read more...

CASEreport

Retrofit to the Rescue: Environmental upgrading of multi-storey estates

Ellie Benton, Alice Belotti, Laura Lane and Anne Power

'Retrofit to the Rescue' looks at the ambitious refurbishment of Wilmcote House in Portsmouth for a new study on the social impact of retrofit works. In 2010 LSE Housing and Communities were asked to conduct interviews...Read more...

Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes Research Paper

What does Brexit mean for social policy in the UK? An exploration of the potential consequences of the 2016 referendum for public services, inequalities and social rights

Kitty Stewart, Kerris Cooper and Isabel Shutes

The paper was written as part of a major research programme on trends in the distribution of social and economic outcomes in the UK and the design and impact of social policies. The paper seeks to map out the potential i...Read more...

Journal Article

Demography:

IncomeRelated Gaps in Early Child Cognitive Development: Why Are They Larger in the US Compared to the UK, Australia and Canada?

Bruce Bradbury, Jane Waldfogel and Elizabeth Washbrook

Previous research has documented significantly larger income-related gaps in children's early cognitive development in the United States than in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. In this study, we investigate th...Read more...

CASEreport

Understanding the Relationship between Poverty and Inequality, Overview report

John Hills, Abigail McKnight, Irene Bucelli, Eleni Karagiannaki, Polly Vizard, Lin Yang, Magali Duque and Mark Rucci

An understanding that poverty and inequality are inextricably linked has given rise to a number of large international organisations setting joint inequality-poverty reduction targets on the basis that poverty cannot be...Read more...

Journal Article

Child Indicators Research:

Child Poverty Amongst Young Carers in the UK: Prevalence and Trends in the Wake of the Financial Crisis, Economic Downturn and Onset of Austerity

Polly Vizard, Polina Obolenskaya and Tania Burchardt

The article provides the first estimates of prevalence and trends in child poverty amongst young carers aged 5–19 in the UK using specialized income data from the Family Resources Survey / the Households Below Average In...Read more...

Journal Article

Oxford Economic Papers:

The ‘mighty girl’ effect: does parenting daughters alter attitudes towards gender norms?

Mireia Borrell-Porta, Joan Costa-Font and Julia Philipp

We study the effect of parenting daughters on attitudes towards gender norms in the UK; specifically, attitudes towards the traditional male breadwinner norm in which it is the husband's role to work and the wife's to st...Read more...

CASEbrief

Money and Meaning: How working-age social security benefit recipients understand and use their money

Kate Summers

This CASEBrief summarises Kate Summers’ doctoral research. The research aimed to develop a detailed picture of how working-age social security benefit recipients understand and use their money. Forty-three indepth, quali...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Estimation of Additive Model with Errors-in-Variables

Hao Dong and Taisuke Otsu

In estimation of nonparametric additive models, conventional methods, such as backfitting and series approximation, cannot be applied when measurement errors are present in covariates. We propose an estimator for such ...Read more...

CASEpaper

The net effect of housing-related costs and advantages on the relationship between inequality and poverty

Lin Yang

This paper reviews the evidence of how the welfare state can shape the relationship between economic inequality and poverty through the channels of taxes, transfers and public good provision. In particular, we examine ho...Read more...

CASEpaper

The relationship between poverty and inequality: Resource constraint mechanisms

Lin Yang

This paper examines how inequality from the interaction of income and housing circumstances changes the relative position of households in the income distribution, and influences the incidence and socio-demographic prof...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Likelihood ratio inference for missing data models

Karun Adusumilli and Taisuke Otsu

Missing or incomplete outcome data is a ubiquitous problem in biomedical and social sciences. Under the missing at random setup, inverse probability weighting is widely applied to estimate and make inference on the popul...Read more...

CASEpaper

Non-resident parents: Why are they hard to capture in surveys and what can we do about it?

Caroline Bryson and Stephen McKay

The under-representation of non-resident parents in surveys has long hindered research on family separation, leaving key evidence gaps for those making policy and practice decisions related to separating and separated fa...Read more...

CASEreport

Never Just a Number: Evaluating the impact of a holistic approach to UK poverty

Anne Power, Bert Provan, Laura Lane and Ellie Benton

The core aim of the research is to show the social value of CAP’s work in tackling poverty and related problems of debt, joblessness, dependency, and low capacity. The evaluation covers the four main strands of CAP’s app...Read more...

Journal Article

Journal of Social Policy:

Formal and Informal Long-Term Care in the Community: Interlocking or Incoherent Systems?

Tania Burchardt, Emily Jones and Polina Obolenskaya

Help with activities of daily living for people in the community is provided through formal services (public and private) and informal (often unpaid) care. This paper investigates how these systems interlock and who is a...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Inequality Measurement and the Rich: Why inequality increased more than we thought

Frank A Cowell and Emmanuel Flachaire

Many standard inequality measures can be written as ratios with the mean in the denominator. When one income moves away from equality, both the numerator and the denominator may vary in the same direction and such indic...Read more...

CASEreport

CASE Annual Report 2017

Kerris Cooper and Abigail McKnight

A summary of the output of the Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion: The work programme of the Centre includes monitoring social spending, policies and outcomes in the UK, international comparisons of poverty and of t...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Eliciting and Utilizing Willingness-to-pay: Evidence from Field Trials in Northern Ghana

James Berry, Greg Fischer and Raymond Guiteras

Using the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, we estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for and impact of clean water technology through a field experiment in Ghana. Although WTP is low relative to the cost, demand ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Does Part-Time Mothering Help Get a Job? The Role of Shared Custody in Women’s Employment

Carole Bonnet, Bertrand Garbinti and Anne Solaz

Though shared custody arrangements after divorce are more and more frequent in many countries, little is known about their economic consequences for parents. By relaxing family time constraints, does shared custody help ...Read more...

CASEreport

Overcoming the Stigma of Social Housing: Can social housing rebuild its reputation?

Anne Power and Bert Provan

Read more...

CASEreport

Overcoming the Stigma of Social Housing: Findings from Tenant Think Tanks

Anne Power

Read more...

CASEreport

Child poverty and multidimensional disadvantage: Tackling "data exclusion" and extending the evidence base on "missing" and "invisible" children (Overview report)

Tania Burchardt, Polly Vizard, Polina Obolenskaya, Isabel Shutes and Mario Battaglini

This report provides an overview of the findings from the Nuffield Foundation research project, ‘Multidimensional child poverty and disadvantage: tackling “data exclusion” and extending the evidence base on “missing” a...Read more...

CASEpaper

Experience of multiple disadvantage among Roma, Gypsy and Traveller children in England and Wales

Tania Burchardt, Polina Obolenskaya, Polly Vizard and Mario Battaglini

Roma, Gypsy and Traveller children across Europe experience high levels of disadvantage and have repeatedly been identified as a priority in European Commission policy documents, yet they are often missing or invisible i...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Inference Without Smoothing for Large Panels with Cross- Sectional and Temporal Dependence

Javier Hidalgo and Marcia M Schafgans

This paper addresses inference in large panel data models in the presence of both cross-sectional and temporal dependence of unknown form. We are interested in making inferences without relying on the choice of any smoo...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Likelihood corrections for two-way models

Koen Jochmans and Taisuke Otsu

The use of two-way fixed-effect models is widespread. The presence of incidental parameter bias, however, invalidates statistical inference based on the likelihood. In this paper we consider modifications to the (profile...Read more...

CASEreport

Private Renting: How can social landlords help?

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Information theoretic approach to high dimensional multiplicative models: Stochastic discount factor and treatment effect

Taisuke Otsu and Chen Qiu

This paper is concerned with estimation of functionals of a latent weight function that satisfies possibly high dimensional multiplicative moment conditions. Main examples are missing data problems, treatment effects, an...Read more...

Book

Decent incomes for all: Improving policies in Europe

Edited by Bea Cantillon, Tim Goedemé and John Hills

This book aims to shed new light on recent poverty trends in the European Union, responses by European welfare states, and how progress can be made to realize a decent income for all. The text analyzes the effect of ...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Inheritance Taxation: Redistribution and Predistribution

Frank A Cowell, Chang He and Dirk Van de gaer

It is well known that taxes on the transfer of wealth typically raise very little revenue. However, this does not mean that they are ineffective as tools for redistribution. In this paper we show how important such tax...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Condorcet was Wrong, Pareto was Right: Families, Inheritance and Inequality

Frank A Cowell and Dirk Van de gaer

Using a simple model of family decision making we examine the processes by which the wealth distribution changes over the generations, focusing in particular on the division of fortunes through inheritance and the unio...Read more...

CASEpaper

The empirical relationship between income poverty and income inequality in rich and middle income countries

Eleni Karagiannaki

This research draws on inequality and poverty statistics from various databases including the European Union Statistics on Incomes and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), the OECD Income Distribution Database (IDD) and the Worl...Read more...

CASEpaper

The relationship between poverty and inequality: Concepts and measurement

Lin Yang

This paper defines and maps the variety of different concepts and measures of poverty and inequality that have been developed and used in research. These reflect differing views of what constitutes a minimum acceptable q...Read more...

CASEpaper

Inequality, poverty and the grounds of our normative concerns

Irene Bucelli

Policy debates surrounding poverty and inequality try to find practical solutions to what we should do to tackle these phenomena. But what are the grounds for being concerned about poverty or about inequality? To what ex...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Inference on distribution functions under measurement error

Karun Adusumilli, Taisuke Otsu and Yoon-Jae Whang

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Relative error accurate statistic based on nonparametric likelihood

Lorenzo Camponovo, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

This paper develops a new test statistic for parameters defined by moment conditions that exhibits desirable relative error properties for the approximation of tail area probabilities. Our statistic, called the tilted ex...Read more...

Special or Commissioned Report

Research report for Oxfam:

Double Trouble: A review of the relationship between UK poverty and economic inequality

AbigailMcKnight, Magali Duque and Mark Rucci

The link between inequality and poverty has been highlighted by a number of international organisations, which have outlined a series of policy recommendations supporting the view that high levels of inequality need to...Read more...

Book

Heat, Greed and Human Need
Climate Change, Capitalism and Sustainable Wellbeing

Ian Gough

Watch Professor Ian Gough present his new book which aims to build an essential bridge between climate change and social policy: Download slides from the launch event here This book buil...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Risk-based Selection in Unemployment Insurance: Evidence and Implications

Camille Landais, Arash Nekoei, Peter Nilsson, David Seim and Johannes Spinnewijn

This paper studies whether adverse selection can rationalize a universal mandate for unemployment insurance (UI). Building on a unique feature of the unemployment policy in Sweden, where workers can opt for supplemental ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

The Political Impact of the Internet on US Presidential Elections

Valentino Larcinese and Luke Miner

What are the political consequences of the diffusion of broadband internet? We address this question by studying the 2008 US presidential election, the first political campaign where the internet played a key role. Drawi...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

The Effects of English Secondary School System Reforms (2002-2014) on Pupil Sorting and Social Segregation: A Greater Manchester Case Study

Stephanie Thomson and Ruth Lupton

The English secondary school system has been undergoing rapid change. 60% of secondary schools are now Academies. Opponents of these changes fear, among other things, greater social segregation, while supporters argue t...Read more...

Journal Article

The Political Quarterly:

Mixing Communities? Riots, Regeneration and Renewal on Problem Estates in France and England

Bert Provan

Riots, social exclusion, and endless improvement programmes have been a feature of the poorest neighbourhoods in France and England for the last thirty-five years or more—particularly focused on large social housing esta...Read more...

CASEpaper

Does Money Affect Children's Outcomes? An update

Kerris Cooper and Kitty Stewart

This report provides an update to Does Money Affect Children’s Outcomes?: A Systematic Review, published in October 2013. Using systematic search approaches, we review the literature examining the relationship between ho...Read more...

Special or Commissioned Report

LSE Consulting Report for the Social Mobility Commission:

Low Cost Home Ownership Schemes

Bert Provan, Alice Belotti, Laura Lane and Anne Power

Low Cost Home Ownership (LCHO) schemes are common in many countries. OECD evidence suggests this is based on the idea that they promote wealth accumulation, better outcomes for children, and higher levels of social cap...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Likelihood inference on semiparametric models: Average derivative and treatment effect

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

In the past few decades, much progress has been made in semiparametric modeling and estimation methods for econometric analysis. This paper is concerned with inference (i.e., confidence intervals and hypothesis testing) ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Measuring individual well-being: A multidimensional index integrating subjective well-being and preferences

Lin Yang

Policymakers have begun looking for measures to assess the well-being of their citizens beyond GDP per capita and disposable income levels. However, the multidimensional and subjective nature of human well-being makes de...Read more...

CASEreport

CASE Annual Report 2016

Kerris Cooper and Kitty Stewart

Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Welfare and Inequality Comparisons for Uni- and Multi-dimensional Distributions of Ordinal Data

Frank A Cowell, Martyna Kobus and Radoslaw Kurek

Decision makers and social planners are often faced with a problem of evaluating distributions of ordinal variables i.e. variables for which there are no numbers but only the ordering, such as, for example, self-reported...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Empirical likelihood for high frequency data

Lorenzo Camponovo, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

With increasing availability of high frequency financial data as a background, various volatility measures and related statistical theory are developed in the recent literature. This paper introduces the method of empiri...Read more...

CASEreport

An Agenda for Housing Plus

Anne Power

This Agenda for Housing Plus pulls together evidence that Housing Plus is fundamental to the way social landlords do business. Housing Plus refers to the wider activities and impact of social landlords on the communities...Read more...

CASEpaper

Inequality and the Capability Approach

Tania Burchardt and Rod Hick

Inequality has acquired a newfound prominence in academic and political debate. While scholars working with the capability approach have succeeded in influencing the nature of debate about the conceptualisation and measu...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

New research evidence on social mobility and educational attainment

John Hills

based on research by Jo Blanden, Claire Crawford, Ellen Greaves, Paul Gregg, Lindsey Macmillan, Abigail McKnight, Luke Sibieta and Anna Vignoles...Read more...

CASEreport

Community Enterprise: Creating Sustainable Communities Report from a Community Enterprise Think Tank

Alice Belotti

Read more...

CASEpaper

Benefit `myths'? The accuracy and inaccuracy of public beliefs about the benefits system

Ben Baumberg Geiger

There is a widespread assumption that increasingly negative public attitudes to the benefits system are due to ‘myths’ held by the British public. However, there is little prior research on whether the public believe the...Read more...

CASEpaper

Pareto and the upper tail of the income distribution in the UK: 1799 to the present

Anthony B. Atkinson

The Pareto distribution has long been a source of fascination to economists, and the Pareto coefficient is widely used, in theoretical and empirical studies, as a summary of the degree of concentration of top incomes. Th...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Local M-estimation with discontinuous criterion for dependent and limited observations

Myung Hwan Seo and Taisuke Otsu

This paper examines asymptotic properties of local M-estimators under three sets of high-level conditions. These conditions are sufficiently general to cover the minimum volume predictive region, conditional maximum scor...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Likelihood inference on semiparametric models with generated regressors

Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

Hahn and Ridder (2013) formulated influence functions of semiparametric three step estimators where generated regressors are computed in the first step. This class of estimators covers several important examples for empi...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Pareto models, top incomes, and recent trends in UK income inequality

Stephen P Jenkins

I determine UK income inequality levels and trends by combining inequality estimates from tax return data (for the ‘rich’) and household survey data (for the ‘non-rich’), taking advantage of the better coverage of top i...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Choice and Competition in Public Service Provision

Timothy Besley and James M. Malcolmson

In spite of a range of policy initiatives in sectors such as education, health care and legal services, whether choice and competition is valuable remains contested territory. This paper studies the impact of choice and ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Specification testing for errors-in-variables models

Taisuke Otsu and Luke Taylor

This paper considers specification testing for regression models with errors-in-variables and proposes a test statistic comparing the distance between the parametric and nonparametric fits based on deconvolution techniqu...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Media, Demonstrations, and Public Good Delivery: Evidence from World Bank Projects during Natural Disasters

Nicola Limodio

Media can affect governments and public policy by promoting anti-government demonstrations. Under media pressure, a multitasking government might reallocate effort across tasks, rather than increase the total aggregate, ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Manager Assignment and Project Returns: Evidence from the World Bank

Nicola Limodio

I study the impact of World Bank managers on project success through the value-added method. Manager effects are interpretable as performance indices and are more volatile than country effects. Both correlate positively...Read more...

CASEreport

Changing Rules and Spending Cuts: Helping tenants help themselves and their landlords. Report from two Tenant Think Tanks

Alice Belotti

Read more...

CASEpaper

How do experts think child poverty should be measured in the UK? An analysis of the Coalition Government’s consultation on child poverty measurement 2012-13

Kitty Stewart and Nick Roberts

This paper examines responses to a 2012-13 government consultation on child poverty measurement. It explores what these responses tell us about attitudes towards the child poverty indicators in the Child Poverty Act 2010...Read more...

CASEpaper

Spatial microsimulation estimates of household income distributions in London boroughs, 2001 and 2011

Alex Fenton

Spatial microsimulation (SMS) is a range of techniques for estimating the local distribution of a variable – here, household income – by combining social survey microdata with Census or administrative population totals. ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Gentrification in London: A progress report, 2001-2013

Alex Fenton

This paper investigates changes in the composition and spatial distribution of income poverty in London from 2001 to 2013, and considers them as evidence of gentrification. It is first argued that income poverty measures...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Pulling in the Same Direction? Economic and Social Outcomes in London and the North of England Since the Recession

Polina Obolenskaya, Ruth Lupton and Bert Provan

The Social Policy in a Cold Climate research programme had two major components: first an analysis of the social policies and spending of Labour and Coalition governments from 1997 to 2015, and theirimpacts on poverty, i...Read more...

CASEpaper

Income Poverty, Affluence and Polarisation Viewed From The Median

Rolf Aaberge, Anthony B. Atkinson and Henrik Sigstad

The present paper brings together different features of the distribution of income – poverty, affluence and dispersion – in a single framework that allows ready comparisons across countries. We believe that such a unifie...Read more...

CASEpaper

Public and Private Welfare Activity in England

Polina Obolenskaya and Tania Burchardt

This paper is the latest in a series of publications documenting the shifting boundaries of private and public welfare activity for the years 1979/80, 1995/96, 1999/00 and 2007/08, and now 2013/14. It records who finance...Read more...

Book

Social Policy in a Cold Climate: policies and their consequences since the crisis

Edited by Ruth Lupton, Tania Burchardt, John Hills, Kitty Stewart and Polly Vizard

A new book published by Policy Press offers a data-rich, evidence-based analysis of the impact government policies from 2007/08 to 2015 have had on inequality and on the delivery of services such as health, education...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

A Better Life for All? Democratization and Electrification in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Verena Kroth, Valentino Larcinese and Joachim Wehner

Does democracy affect basic service delivery? If yes, who benefits, and which elements of democracy matter - enfranchisement, the liberalization of political organization, or both? In 1994, 19 million South Africans gai...Read more...

CASEreport

Does money in adulthood affect adult outcomes?

Kerris Cooper and Kitty Stewart

There is ample evidence that adults with lower incomes tend to have worse outcomes including worse health, lower life expectancy and lower subjective wellbeing than individuals with more. But is money in adulthood itself...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Patents Rights and Innovation by Small and Large Firms

Mark Schankerman

This paper studies the causal impact of patents on subsequent innovation by the patent holder. The analysis is based on court invalidation of patents by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, and exploits t...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Modern Family: Female Breadwinners and the Intergenerational Transmission of Gender Norms

Panos Mavrokonstantis

In this paper I investigate the intergenerational transmission of gender norms. The norm I focus on is the traditional view that it is the role of the mother to look after young children and the role of the father to be...Read more...

CASEreport

Findings from the Trafford Hall Energy Plus Think Tank

LSE Housing and Communities

Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Time Preferences and Bargaining

Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch

This paper presents an analysis of general time preferences in the canonical Rubinstein (1982) model of bilateral alternating-offers bargaining. I derive a simple sufficient structure for optimal punishments and ther...Read more...

CASEpaper

The changing distribution of individual incomes in the UK before and after the recession

Eleni Karagiannaki and Lucinda Platt

While there has been substantial research on the impacts of the Great Recession on household incomes, there has been less attention paid to the effects on individual income. Using pooled data from the Family Resources Su...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Were we really all in it together? The distributional effects of the 2010-2015 UK Coalition government's tax-benefit policy changes: an end-of-term update

Paola De Agostini, John Hills and Holly Sutherland

This paper examines the distributional impacts of the changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct taxes between the UK Elections in May 2010 and in May 2015. It also looks ahead to the longer-term effects of ch...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Consumption Smoothing and the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty

Yonas Alem and Jonathan Colmer

When agents are unable to smooth consumption and have distorted beliefs about the likelihood of future income realisations, uncertainty about future states of the world has a direct effect on individual welfare. However,...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Social Identity and Redistributive Preferences: A Survey

Joan Costa-Font and Frank A Cowell

Social identity is increasingly accepted as a key concept underpin- ning the endogeneity of economic behaviour and preferences. This feature is especially important in explaining redistribution preferences as well as att...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Trends in Individual Income Growth: Measurement Methods and British Evidence

Stephen P Jenkins and Philippe Van Kerm

Assessments of whose income growth is the greatest and whose is the smallest are typically based on comparisons of income changes for income groups (e.g. rich versus poor) or income values (e.g. quantiles). However, inco...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

When and Why do Initially High Attaining Poor Children Fall Behind?

Claire Crawford, Lindsey Macmillan and Anna Vignoles

The role of education as a potential driver of social mobility has been well established in both the theoretical (Blau and Duncan, 1967; Becker and Tomes, 1986) and empirical literature (Atkinson, 1980; Atkinson and Jenk...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric instrumental regression with errors in variables

Karun Adusumilli and Taisuke Otsu

This paper considers nonparametric instrumental variable regression when the endogenous variable is contaminated with classical measurement error. Existing methods are inconsistent in the presence of measurement error. W...Read more...

CASEreport

Older people's experiences of dignity and nutrition during hospital stays: Secondary data analysis using the Adult Inpatient Survey

Polly Vizard and Tania Burchardt

The report uses the Adult Inpatient Survey 2012 to build up an in-depth quantitative evidence base on older people's experiences of dignity and nutrition during hospital stays in England. We find that just under one-quar...Read more...

CASEbrief

Older people's experiences of dignity and nutrition during hospital stays: Secondary data analysis using the Adult Inpatient Survey

Tania Burchardt and Polly Vizard

The report uses the Adult Inpatient Survey 2012 to build up an in-depth quantitative evidence base on older people's experiences of dignity and nutrition during hospital stays in England. The survey covers adults aged 16...Read more...

CASEpaper

A fresh look at an old question: is pro-poor targeting of cash transfers more effective than universal systems at reducing inequality and poverty?

Abigail McKnight

This paper presents findings on the changing effectiveness of cash transfers and income taxes on inequality and poverty reduction in four EU countries - the UK, Italy, Sweden and France. We use long time series (spanning...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

European Identity and Redistributive Preferences

Joan Costa-Font and Frank A Cowell

How important is spatial identity in shifting preferences for redistribution? This paper takes advantage of within-country variability in the adoption of a single currency as an instrument to examine the impact of the re...Read more...

Special or Commissioned Report

Research Report for the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission:

Downward mobility, opportunity hoarding and the ‘glass floor’

Abigail McKnight

Read more...

CASEpaper

Mothers, parenting and the impact of separation

Lucinda Platt, Tina Haux and Rachel Rosenberg

This paper investigates the impact of separation on mothers’ perception of their competence as parents. Using the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), a largescale nationally representative cohort study of children born in the...Read more...

CASEpaper

Parenting and post-separation contact: what are the links?

Tina Haux, Lucinda Platt and Rachel Rosenberg

High rates of parental separation and the extent to which non-resident fathers lose contact with their child have led to concerns about the involvement of fathers in their children’s lives. In this paper, we draw on a na...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Testing for Breaks in Regression Models with Dependent Data

Violetta Dalla and Javier Hidalgo

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Inference and Testing Breaks in Large Dynamic Panels with Strong Cross Sectional Dependence

Javier Hidalgo and Marcia M Schafgans

This paper is concerned with various issues related to inference in large dynamic panel data models (where both n and T increase without bound) in the presence of, possibly, strong cross-sectional dependence. Our first a...Read more...

CASEpaper

Monitoring the evolution of income poverty and real incomes over time

Anthony B. Atkinson, Anne-Catherine Guio and Eric Marlier

This paper brings together two approaches to the monitoring of household living standards: the macro-economic (national accounts) analysis of aggregates and the social indicators based on household microdata (European Un...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Coalition's Record on Employment: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015

Abigail McKnight

The evaluation of the Coalition’s employment policy shows that although the labour market was remarkably resilient over the recession in terms of employment rates, this was largely driven by falling real wages and increa...Read more...

CASEreport

Is Welfare Reform Working? Impacts on working age tenants

Eileen Herden, Anne Power and Bert Provan

This report presents evidence on whether the aim of moving people who are dependent on benefits into work has been achieved, and considers three important questions: Are welfare reforms encouraging tenants into work or t...Read more...

SPCC Research Report

The Changing Anatomy of Economic Inequality in London (2007-2013)

Polly Vizard, Polina Obolenskaya, Eleni Karagiannaki, Jack Cunliffe, Stephanie Thomson, Chris Grollman and Ruth Lupton

In this report we examine changing patterns of inequality in London over the period 2007-2013. We examine how the distribution of key economic outcomes - including income and wealth, employment and unemployment, earnings...Read more...

SPCC Research Report

Falling Behind, Getting Ahead: The Changing Structure of Inequality in the UK, 2007-2013

John Hills, Jack Cunliffe, Polina Obolenskaya and Eleni Karagiannaki

This report looks in detail at inequality within the UK, 2007-2013, which groups have gained and lost - comparing men and women, and housing tenure, region, ethnicity, and disability as well as age group. Detailed examin...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Pooling data across markets in dynamic Markov games

Taisuke Otsu, Martin Pesendorfer and Yuya Takahashi

This paper proposes several statistical tests for finite state Markov games to examine the null hypothesis that data from distinct markets can be pooled. We formulate tests of (i) the conditional choice and state transit...Read more...

CASEpaper

The income distribution in the UK: A picture of advantage and disadvantage

Stephen P Jenkins

This paper describes the UK income distribution and how it has evolved over the last 50 years. It also includes some comparisons with the income distributions of other rich countries. Multiple perspectives on the distrib...Read more...

CASEpaper

Piketty in the long run

Frank A Cowell

I examine the idea of 'the long run' in Piketty (2014) and related works. In contrast to simplistic interpretations of long-run models of income- and wealth-distribution Piketty (2014) draws on a rich economic analysis t...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Projection Equilibrium: Definition and Applications to Social Investment and Persuasion

Kristóf Madarász

People exaggerate the extent to which their private information is shared with others. This paper introduces this phenomenon portably into Bayesian games where people wrongly think that if they can condition their strate...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

The Coalition's Record on Schools: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015

Ruth Lupton and Stephanie Thomson

In May 2010, David Cameron and Nick Clegg committed the Coalition to sweeping school reforms, promising “a breaking open of the state monopoly”. They also pledged to protect school spending and give extra money to the ed...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

The Coalition's Record on Area Regeneration and Neighbourhood Renewal: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015

Ruth Lupton and Amanda Fitzgerald

In the decade to 2010, substantial progess had been made to improve living conditions, and outcomes in the poorest neighbourhoods. But large gaps remained. This paper looks at how the Coalition tackled this issue, and wh...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

The Coalition's Record on Health: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015

Polly Vizard and Polina Obolenskaya

David Cameron promised in 2010 to 'cut the deficit, not the NHS'. But how have the Coalition's policies - including health reforms which are widely viewed as going beyond election commitments - impacted on health?...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

The Coalition's Record on Under Fives 2010-2015

Kitty Stewart

The Government's strategy for improving social mobility emphasised the importance of early childhood. Against a backdrop of tightening austerity, what happened in practice to children's services, family incomes and early...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

The Coalition's Record on Cash Transfers, Poverty and Inequality 2010-2015

John Hills

Presenting his 2010 spending review, George Osborne, the Chancellor, insisted that 'those with the broadest shoulders should bear the greatest burden'. How did the Coalition's benefit and direct tax policies affect the d...Read more...

SPCC Research Report

The Coalition's Social Policy Record: Policy Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015

Ruth Lupton, Tania Burchardt, Amanda Fitzgerald, John Hills, Abigail McKnight, Polina Obolenskaya, Kitty Stewart, Stephanie Thomson, Rebecca Tunstall and Polly Vizard

This paper summarises nine detailed reports assessing the social policies of the UK Coalition government elected in 2010. What did the Coalition set out to achieve? How much was spent and saved? What policies were enacte...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric likelihood for volatility under high frequency data

Lorenzo Camponovo, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

We propose a nonparametric likelihood inference method for the integrated volatility under high frequency financial data. The nonparametric likelihood statistic, which contains the conventional statistics such as empiric...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Bootstrap inference of matching estimators for average treatment effects

Taisuke Otsu and Yoshiyasu Rai

Abadie and Imbens (2008) showed that the standard naive bootstrap is inconsistent to estimate the distribution of the matching estimator for treatment effects with a fixed number of matches. This article proposes an asym...Read more...

CASEpaper

Beyond Radicalism and Resignation: The Competing Logics for Public Participation in Policy Decisions

Rikki Dean

From the World Bank to the Occupy Movement, support for greater citizen participation in social policy decisions has become ubiquitous. This paper argues that existing typologies of participation are problematic in that ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Does early centre-based care have an impact on child cognitive and socio-emotional development? Evidence from Chile

Marigen Narea

Worldwide, non-maternal child care during the first years of life has gradually become more prevalent. However, there is little evidence for Chile about the benefit of early attendance at centre-based care—especially uni...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Robust estimation of moment condition models with weakly dependent data

Kirill Evdokimov, Yuichi Kitamura and Taisuke Otsu

This paper considers robust estimation of moment condition models with time series data. Researchers frequently use moment condition models in dynamic econometric analysis. These models are particularly useful when one w...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Regularization for Spatial Panel Time Series Using the Adaptive LASSO

Clifford Lam and Pedro Souza

This paper proposes a model for estimating the underlying cross-sectional dependence structure of a large panel of time series. Technical difficulties meant such a structure is usually assumed before further analysis. We...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Were we really all in it together? The distributional effects of the UK Coalition government's tax-benefit policy changes

Paola De Agostini, John Hills and Holly Sutherland

This paper examines the distributional impacts of the changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct (but not indirect) taxes between the systems in place in May 2010 at the time of the Election and in 2014/15. It...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Hard times, new directions? The impact of local government spending cuts on three deprived neighbourhoods. Final report.

Amanda Fitzgerald, Ruth Lupton and Anne Marie Brady

In the context of what was described as the worst financial settlement in living memory for local government, we set out in this study to establish how residents living in some of the most deprived neighbourhoods of Lond...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Dynamic Panels with Threshold Effect and Endogeneity

Myung Hwan Seo and Yongcheol Shin

This paper addresses an important and challenging issue as how best to model nonlinear asymmetric dynamics and cross-sectional heterogeneity, simultaneously, in the dynamic threshold panel data framework, in which both t...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

A Cusum Test of Common Trends in Large Heterogeneous Panels

Javier Hidalgo and Jungyoon Lee

This paper examines a nonparametric CUSUM-type test for common trends in large panel data sets with individual fixed effects. We consider, as in Zhang, Su and Phillips (2012), a partial linear regression model with unkno...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

When Commitment Fails - Evidence from a Regular Saver Product in the Philippines

Anett John (née Hofmann)

Commitment products are widely regarded as a remedy for self-control problems. However, imperfect knowledge about one's preferences implies that individuals may fail to anticipate their behaviour under commitment, and co...Read more...

CASEpaper

Climate Change and Sustainable Welfare: An Argument for the Centrality of Human Needs

Ian Gough

Since climate change threatens human wellbeing across the globe and into the future, we require a concept of wellbeing that encompasses an equivalent ambit. This paper argues that only a concept of human need can do the ...Read more...

CASEreport

Facing Debt: Economic Resilience in Newham

Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Multiproduct Firms, Income Distribution, and Trade

Marcia M Schafgans and Joachim Stibora

We develop a general equilibrium model of multiproduct fi…rms with quality differentiated goods. Households are characterized by an heterogeneous taste for the differentiated good and their income level. The use of non-h...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Family Welfare Cultures

Gordon B. Dahl, Magne Mogstad and Andreas Ravndal Kostol

Strong intergenerational correlations in various types of welfare use have fuelled a long- standing debate over whether welfare receipt in one generation causes welfare participation in the next generation. Some claim a ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Can Workfare Programs Moderate Violence? Evidence from India

Thiemo Fetzer

Governments in conflict torn states scramble for effective policies to persistently reduce levels of violence. This paper provides evidence that a workfare program that functions as a social insurance, providing employme...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

Hard Times, New Directions? The Impact of Local Government Spending Cuts in London (Interim Report Summary)

Amanda Fitzgerald and Ruth Lupton

Key Points: London local government has taken a 33 per cent real terms cut in service funding from central government between 2009/10 and 2013/14. Councils have been making strenuous efforts to make large savings without...Read more...

CASEreport

CASE Annual Report 2013

he CASE annual report containing interesting articles and summaries of research from the previous year....Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Your Loss Is My Gain: A Recruitment Experiment With Framed Incentives

Jonathan de Quidt

Empirically, labor contracts that financially penalize failure induce higher effort provision than economically identical contracts presented as paying a bonus for success, an effect attributed to loss aversion. This is ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Just a Few Cents Each Day: Can Fixed Regular Deposits Overcome Savings Constraints?

Anett John (née Hofmann)

Empirical evidence suggests that there is a high demand for informal savings mechanisms even though these often feature negative returns - such as deposit collectors, ROSCAs, microloans, and informal borrowing. This pape...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

Education, Equity and Social Mobility: A Summary of Three Research Papers

David Utting

This paper summarises key themes and research findings from papers presented at an event hosted by CASE on 23rd January 2014: - Blanden, J. & Macmillan, L. (2014) Education and Intergenerational Mobility: Help or Hindran...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Education and Intergenerational Mobility: Help or Hindrance?

Jo Blanden and Lindsey Macmillan

Evidence on intergenerational income mobility in the UK is dated. This paper seeks to update our knowledge by introducing new estimates of mobility for later measures of earnings in the 1958 and 1970 birth cohorts. Given...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Management of Bureaucrats and Public Service Delivery: Evidence from the Nigerian Civil Service

Imran Rasul and Daniel Rogger

We study how the management practices that bureaucrats operate under, correlate to the quantity and quality of public services delivered. We do so in a developing country context, exploiting data from the Nigerian Civil ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Education and Intergenerational Mobility: Help or Hindrance?

Jo Blanden and Lindsey Macmillan

Evidence on intergenerational income mobility in the UK is dated. This paper seeks to update our knowledge by introducing new estimates of mobility for later measures of earnings in the 1958 and 1970 birth cohorts. Given...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Robustness of bootstrap in instrumental variable regression

Lorenzo Camponovo and Taisuke Otsu

This paper studies robustness of bootstrap inference methods for instrumental variable (IV)regression models. We consider test statistics for parameter hypotheses based on the IV estimatorand generalized method of trimme...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Asymptotics for maximum score method under general conditions

Myung Hwan Seo and Taisuke Otsu

Abstract. Since Manski's (1975) seminal work, the maximum score method for discrete choice models has been applied to various econometric problems. Kim and Pollard (1990) established the cube root asymptotics for the max...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Hard Times, New Directions? The Impact of Local Government Spending Cuts in London (Interim Report)

Amanda Fitzgerald, Ruth Lupton, Ronan Smyth and Polly Vizard

Key Points: London local government has taken a 33 per cent real terms cut in service funding from central government between 2009/10 and 2013/14. Councils have been making strenuous efforts to make large savings without...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Series Estimation under Cross-sectional Dependence

Jungyoon Lee and Peter M Robinson

An asymptotic theory is developed for nonparametric and semiparametric series estimation under general cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. A uniform rate of consistency, asymptotic normality, and sufficient con...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Panel Nonparametric Regression with Fixed Effects

Jungyoon Lee and Peter M Robinson

Nonparametric regression is developed for data with both a temporal and a cross-sectional dimension. The model includes additive, unknown, individual-specifi…c components and allows also for cross-sectional and temporal ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Non-Nested Testing of Spatial Correlation

Miguel A. Delgado and Peter M Robinson

We develop non-nested tests in a general spatial, spatio-temporal or panel data context. The spatial aspect can be interpreted quite generally, in either a geographical sense, or employing notions of economic distance, o...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Efficient Inference on Fractionally Integrated Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects

Peter M Robinson and Carlos Velasco

A dynamic panel data model is considered that contains possibly stochastic individual components and a common fractional stochastic time trend. We propose four different ways of coping with the individual effects so as t...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Improved Lagrange Multiplier Tests in Spatial Autoregressions

Peter M Robinson and Francesca Rossi

For testing lack of correlation against spatial autoregressive alternatives, Lagrange multiplier tests enjoy their usual computational advantages, but the (x squared) first-order asymptotic approximation to critical valu...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Improved Tests for Spatial Correlation

Peter M Robinson and Francesca Rossi

We consider testing the null hypothesis of no spatial autocorrelation against the alternative of first order spatial autoregression. A Wald test statistic has good first order asymptotic properties, but these may not be ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Wealth and Inheritance in Britain from 1896 to the Present

Anthony B. Atkinson

There has been a large rise in the UK ratio of personal wealth to national income. Personal wealth has grown since the 1970s about twice as fast in real terms as national income. Has this rise in the wealth-income ratio ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Labour's Record on Neighbourhood Renewal in England: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 1997-2010

Ruth Lupton, Alex Fenton and Amanda Fitzgerald

When he came to power in 1997, Tony Blair reacted to widening disparities between poorer and richer neighbourhoods by declaring that no one in future decades should be seriously disadvantaged by where they lived. This pa...Read more...

CASEpaper

Labour's Record on the Under Fives: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 1997-2010

Kitty Stewart

When Labour came to power in 1997 it made commitments to reduce poverty and improve children’s health, education and wider life chances. Early childhood was considered central to the strategy, and considerable resources ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Profit with Purpose? A Theory of Social Enterprise with Experimental Evidence

Timothy Besley and Maitreesh Ghatak

When social benefits cannot be measured, a hybrid organization which selects managers based on motivation can be used to balance profi…ts with a social purpose. This paper develops a model of social enterprise based on s...Read more...

CASEreport

Does money affect children's outcomes?

Kerris Cooper and Kitty Stewart

Children in low-income households do less well than their better-off peers on many outcomes in life, such as education or health, simply because they are poorer. While a parent's level of education, attitude towards brin...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Peer Effects in Endogenous Networks

Timo Hiller and Timo Hiller

This paper presents a simple model of strategic network formation with local complementarities in effort levels and positive local externalities for a general class of payoff functions. Results are obtained for one-sided...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Extremum Sieve Estimation in k-out-of-n Systems

Tatiana Komarova

The paper considers nonparametric estimation of absolutely continuous distribution functions of lifetimes of non-identical components in k-out-of-n systems from the observed “autopsy” data. In economics,ascending “button...Read more...

CASEreport

Developing an indicator-based framework for monitoring older people's human rights: key findings for Peru, Mozambique and Kyrgyzstan

Polly Vizard

This project was commissioned by HelpAge International as a basis for broader efforts to develop an indicator-based system for monitoring older people’s human rights in different countries across the world. The project h...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Small-area measures of income poverty

Alex Fenton

This paper considers techniques for measuring the prevalence of income poverty within small areas, or “neighbourhoods”, in Britain. The ultimate purpose is applying such statistics to investigating how the micro-spatial ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Awards Unbundled: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment

Nava Ashraf, Oriana Bandiera and Scott Lee

Organizations often use awards to incentivize performance. We design a field experiment to unbundle the mechanisms through which awards may affect behavior: by facilitating social comparison and by conferring recognition...Read more...

CASEpaper

Labour's Record on Cash Transfers, Poverty, Inequality and the Lifecycle 1997 - 2010

John Hills

Cash transfers (benefits and tax credits) are crucial to the way that inequalities develop over time. This paper looks at how Labour’s aims, policies and achievements on poverty and inequality related to its reforms of a...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Group Lending Without Joint Liability

Thiemo Fetzer, Maitreesh Ghatak and Jonathan de Quidt

This paper contrasts individual liability lending with and without groups to joint liability lending. By doing so, we shed light on an apparent shift away from joint liability lending towards individual liability lending...Read more...

CASEreport

Divided City? The value of mixed communities in expensive neighbourhoods

Katie Bates, Laura Lane, Anne Power and Nicola Serle

Headlines: [1] Octavia Housing, a long-established social landlord in Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster, provides low cost rented homes to low-income local residents in high-cost areas. In doing so it helps to overc...Read more...

SPCC Research Report

Prosperity, Poverty and Inequality in London 2000/01-2010/11

Ruth Lupton, Polly Vizard, Amanda Fitzgerald, Alex Fenton, Ludovica Gambaro and Jack Cunliffe

This report looks at changes in poverty and inequality in London during the 2000s, with a focus on the impact of recession from 2008. It also considers how a decade has changed the geography of poverty in the Capital....Read more...

SPCC Research Report

Winners and Losers in the Crisis: The Changing Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK 2007 - 2010

John Hills, Jack Cunliffe, Ludovica Gambaro, Polina Obolenskaya and Ruth Lupton

Despite being better qualified than previous generations, people in their twenties were worst hit by the crisis in terms of unemployment, pay and incomes....Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Labour's Record on Neighbourhood Renewal in England: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 1997-2010

Ruth Lupton, Alex Fenton and Amanda Fitzgerald

When he came to power in 1997, Tony Blair reacted to widening disparities between poorer and richer neighbourhoods by declaring that no one in future decades should be seriously disadvantaged by where they lived. What po...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Labour's Record on Cash Transfers, Poverty, Inequality and the Lifecycle 1997 - 2010

John Hills

Cash transfers (benefits and tax credits) are crucial to the way that inequalities develop over time. This paper looks at how Labour’s aims, policies and achievements on poverty and inequality related to its reforms of a...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Labour's Record on the Under Fives: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 1997 - 2010

Kitty Stewart

When Labour came to power in 1997 it made commitments to reduce poverty and improve children’s health, education and wider life chances. How far did it act on these commitments, at what cost, and with what impact?...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Labour's Record on Education: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 1997-2010

Ruth Lupton and Polina Obolenskaya

As we write in 2013, a broad consensus appears to have emerged in English politics about the importance of reducing educational inequalities between richer and poorer pupils, as well as improving educational standards ov...Read more...

SPCC Working Paper

Labour's Record on Health (1997-2010)

Polly Vizard and Polina Obolenskaya

The aim of this research report is to provide an overall evaluation of Labour’s record on health 1997-2010 as an input into the Social Policy in a Cold Climate research programme. The report summarises, brings together a...Read more...

SPCC Research Report

Labour's Social Policy Record: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 1997-2010

Ruth Lupton, John Hills, Kitty Stewart and Polly Vizard

This is the first major report in a wider programme assessing the impact of the recession, government policy reforms and public spending on poverty and inequality in the UK. Later work will assess the Coalition’s social ...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

Low-demand Housing and Unpopular Neighbourhoods Under Labour

Alex Fenton and Ruth Lupton

When the last Labour government took office in 1997, pledging to combat social exclusion, renew neighbourhoods and eliminate ‘no-go’ areas, a critical issue was to address the phenomenon of ‘low-demand’ housing and unpop...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

Urban Area and Hinterland: Defining Large Cities in England, Scotland and Wales in terms of their constituent neighbourhoods

Alex Fenton

This note describes a method for defining the 'core urban area' and 'hinterland' of large and metropolitan cities in Britain. The definitions are made in terms of small-area ('neighbourhood') geographies used in standard...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

Post-censal household estimates for small areas

Alex Fenton

The Censuses of Population in the constituent countries of the UK provide counts of households at small area level and above every 10 years. All four countries in the UK also produce annual household projections and esti...Read more...

CASEpaper

Small-area measures of income poverty

Alex Fenton

This paper considers techniques for measuring the prevalence of income poverty within small areas, or “neighbourhoods”, in Britain. The ultimate purpose is applying such statistics to investigating how the micro-spatial ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

SPECIFICATION FOR LATTICE PROCESSES

Javier Hidalgo and Myung Hwan Seo

We consider an omnibus test for the correct speci…cation of the dynamics of a sequence fx (t)gt2Zd in a lattice. As it happens with causal models and d = 1, its asymptotic distribution is not pivotal and depends on the e...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Mobility in China

Yi Chen and Frank A Cowell

We examine the evidence on rank and income mobility in China during the decades immediately preceding and immediately following the millennium using panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. We show that ran...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

The Distribution of Local Government Finance by Local Authority-Level Deprivation

Ruth Lupton, Amanda Fitzgerald and Alex Fenton

This research note describes the methodology adopted in SPCC to track the relationship between central government spending and deprivation at the local authority level, thus addressing the question, over time and under d...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

Re-visiting the conceptual framework for public/private boundaries in welfare

Tania Burchardt

Under the Conservative administration 1979-1997, there was considerable debate about the boundaries of the welfare state: what should be provided by the state, what could or should be provided through the market, what mi...Read more...

SPCC Research Note

Social Policy in a Cold Climate: A Framework for Analysing the Effects of Social Policy

Ruth Lupton, Tania Burchardt, John Hills, Kitty Stewart and Polly Vizard

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007/8, social policy and the welfare state in the UK have been undergoing a period of extraordinary change. After a decade of welfare state expansion to 2007, with part...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Can Basic Entrepreneurship Transform the Economic Lives of the Poor?

Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Narayan Das, Selim Gulesci, Imran Rasul and Munshi Sulaiman

A new version of this paper has been published on August 2015 (Paper No EOPP 58). The world’s poorest people lack capital and skills and toil for others in occupations that others shun. Using a large-scale and long-ter...Read more...

CASEpaper

How best to measure pension adequacy

Aaron George Grech

Though the main benchmark used to assess pension reforms continues to be the expected resulting fall in future government spending, the impact of policy changes on pension adequacy is increasingly coming to the fore. As ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Motivating Knowledge Agents: Can Incentive Pay Overcome Social Distance?

Erlend Berg, Maitreesh Ghatak, R Manjula, D Rajasekhar and Sanchari Roy

This paper studies the interaction of incentive pay and social distance in the dissemination of information. We analyse theoretically as well as empirically the effect of incentive pay when agents have pro-social objecti...Read more...

CASEpaper

A question of quality: Do children from disadvantaged backgrounds receive lower quality early years education and care in England?

Ludovica Gambaro, Kitty Stewart and Jane Waldfogel

This paper examines how the quality of formal early childhood education and care is associated with children’s background. By using different indicators of quality, the research also explored how the relationship varies ...Read more...

CASEpaper

What Gives? Household Consumption Patterns and the 'Big Trade Off' with Public Consumption

Francesca Bastagli and John Hills

At the centre of politics in Britain and other countries is what is sometimes called 'the big trade-off'- where to strike the balance between private consumption and collective goods and social spending – and hence the s...Read more...

CASEbrief

Equal access to high quality early education and care? Evidence from England and lessons from other countries

Ludovica Gambaro, Kitty Stewart and Jane Waldfogel

Read more...

CASEpaper

The relationship between EU indicators of persistent and current poverty

Stephen P Jenkins and Philippe Van Kerm

The current poverty rate and the persistent poverty rate are both included in the EU’s portfolio of primary indicators of social inclusion. We show that there is a near-linear relationship between these two indicators ac...Read more...

CASEpaper

Accounting for cross-country differences in wealth inequality

Frank A Cowell, Eleni Karagiannaki and Abigail McKnight

This paper adopts a counterfactual decomposition analysis to analyse cross-country differences in the size of household wealth and levels of household wealth inequality. The findings of the paper suggest that the biggest...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

ON TESTABILITY OF COMPLEMENTARITY IN MODELS WITH MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA

Taisuke Otsu and Yoshiyasu Rai

This paper revisits testability of complementarity in economic models with multiple equilibria studied by Echenique and Komunjer (2009). We find that Echenique and Komunjer’s (2009) testable implications on extreme quant...Read more...

CASEpaper

On 'Consistent' Poverty

Rod Hick

The measurement of poverty as ‘consistent’ poverty offers a solution to one of the primary problems of poverty measurement within Social Policy of the last three decades. Often treated as if they were synonymous, ‘indire...Read more...

CASEpaper

Wealth accumulation in Great Britain 1995-2005: The role of house prices and the life cycle

Francesca Bastagli and John Hills

This paper examines trends in the distribution of household wealth in Great Britain from 1995 to 2005 using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). The data show that wealth is very unevenly distributed and reveal a w...Read more...

CASEpaper

Mapping and measuring the distribution of household wealth: A cross-country analysis

Frank A Cowell, Eleni Karagiannaki and Abigail McKnight

In this paper we compare the level, composition and distribution of household wealth in five industrial countries: the UK, US, Italy, Finland and Sweden. We exploit the harmonized data within the Luxembourg Wealth Study,...Read more...

CASEreport

High Rise Hope

Katie Bates, Laura Lane and Anne Power

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Testing for Structural Stability in the Whole Sample

Javier Hidalgo and Myung Hwan Seo

The paper examines a Lagrange Multiplier type test for the constancy of the parameter in general models with dependent data without imposing any arti…cial choice of the possible location of the break. In order to prove t...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Market Structure and Borrower Welfare in Microfinance

Jonathan de Quidt, Thiemo Fetzer and Maitreesh Ghatak

Motivated by recent controversies surrounding the role of commercial lenders in microfinance, we analyze borrower welfare under different market structures,considering a benevolent non-profit lender, a for-profit monopol...Read more...

CASEpaper

The effect of parental wealth on children’s outcomes in early adulthood

Eleni Karagiannaki

This paper presents the first UK estimates of the association between parental wealth during adolescence and a range of children’s outcomes in early adulthood. Parental wealth is positively associated with all outcomes e...Read more...

CASEpaper

Using play to help families learn: Evaluation of Trafford Hall’s Playing 2 Learn Programme 2008-11

Laura Lane and Liz Richardson

The report describes the results of a three-year evaluation by LSE Housing and Communities of a family learning programme called Playing 2 Learn. The Playing 2 Learn programme was open to vulnerable families from low inc...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Assessing theWelfare Effects of Unemployment Benefits Using the Regression Kink Design

Camille Landais

I investigate in this paper partial equilibrium labor supply responses to unemployment insurance (UI) in the US. I use administrative data on the universe of unemployment spells in five states from 1976 to 1984, and non-...Read more...

CASEpaper

Migrants, Landlords and their Uneven Experiences of the Beijing Olympic Games

Hyun Bang Shin and Bingqin Li

Hosting of mega-events such as the Olympic Games tends to be accompanied by voluminous media coverage on the negative social impact of the Games, and the people in the affected areas are often considered to be one victim...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Decentralization of Health and Education in Developing Countries: A Quality-Adjusted Review of the Empirical Literature

Anila Channa and Jean-Paul Faguet

We review empirical evidence on the ability of decentralization to enhance preference matching and technical efficiency in the provision of health and education in developing countries. Many influential surveys have foun...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Binary Choice Models with Discrete Regressors: Identification and Misspecification

Tatiana Komarova

In semiparametric binary response models, support conditions on the regressors are required to guarantee point identification of the parameter of interest. For example,one regressor is usually assumed to have continuous ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Evaluating the possible impact of pension reforms on future living standards in Europe

Aaron George Grech

Successive reforms enacted since the 1990s have dramatically changed Europe’s pensions landscape. This paper tries to assess the impact of recent reforms on the ability of systems to alleviate poverty and maintain living...Read more...

CASEpaper

Localisation and the means test: A case study of support for English students from Autumn 2012

John Hills and Ben Richards

The combination of spending cuts, efforts to protect the poorest from some of their effects, and ‘localised’ decision-making are leading to an increase in the numbers of means tests designed by lower level institutions. ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

The Political Economy of Deforestation in the Tropics

Robin Burgess, Matthew Hansen, Benjamin Olken, Peter Potapov and Stefanie Sieber

Tropical deforestation accounts for almost one-…fifth of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and threatens the world’s most diverse ecosystems. The prevalence of illegal forest extraction in the tropics suggests that unde...Read more...

CASEpaper

Deliberative research as a tool to make value judgements

Tania Burchardt

The ‘deliberative turn’ in democratic theory has generated a wealth of deliberative experiments. The purpose of deliberation as a research technique (as opposed to policymaking or public consultation) is distinctive: to ...Read more...

CASEreport

Final report of the Hills Independent Fuel Poverty Review: Getting the Measure of Fuel Poverty

John Hills

The review confirms that fuel poverty is a serious national problem and shows that it is set to rise rapidly. It affects people with low incomes and energy costs above typical levels. It proposes a new way of measuring t...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Conscience Accounting: Emotional Dynamics and Social Behavior

Uri Gneezy, Alex Imas and Kristóf Madarász

We develop a dynamic model where people decide in the presence of moral constraints and test the predictions of the model through two experiments. Norm violations induce a temporal feeling of guilt that depreciates with ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

The Legacy of Historical Conflict Evidence from Africa

Timothy Besley and Marta Reynal-Querol

There is a great deal of interest in the causes and consequences of conflict in Africa, one of the poorest areas of the world where only modest economic progress has been made. This paper asks whether post-colonial confl...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

No Margin, no Mission? A Field Experiment on Incentives for public service delivery

Nava Ashraf, Oriana Bandiera and Kelsey Jack

A substantial body of research investigates the design of incentives in firms, yet less is known about incentives in organizations that hire individuals to perform tasks with positive social spillovers. We conduct a fiel...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT: INCOME DYNAMICS AND THE EVOLVING POLITICAL PREFERENCES OF FORWARD-LOOKING BAYESIAN VOTERS

John Morrow and Michael Carter

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upwar...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Impact of School Context: What headteachers say

Martin Thrupp and Ruth Lupton

This paper reports the accounts of fifteen headteachers of primary schools in one local authority in the South East of England, including headteachers of schools that are amongst the most advantaged five per cent of scho...Read more...

CASEpaper

Pathways and penalties: Mothers’ employment trajectories and wage growth in the Families and Children Study

Francesca Bastagli and Kitty Stewart

This paper uses panel data from the British Families and Children Study to analyse the employment patterns of women with children and the ways in which part-time work and interruptions in paid employment influence the wa...Read more...

CASEpaper

Right to the city and critical reflections on property rights activism in China’s urban renewal contexts

Hyun Bang Shin

The rapid transformation of urban socio-spatial landscape in China has resulted in an increasing degree of frustration and discontent among local residents who face threats of demolition and eviction. This has given rise...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Shifting Balance of Private and Public Welfare Activity in the United Kingdom, 1979 to 2007

Daniel Edmiston

The balance between private and public sectors in welfare activity in the UK has been documented by Burchardt (1997) and Smithies (2005) for three time periods; 1979/1980, 1995/1996 and 1999/2000. The existing evidence s...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Team Incentives: Evidence From A Firm Level Experiment

Oriana Bandiera, Iwan Baranky and Imran Rasul

Many organizations rely on teamwork, and yet field evidence on the impacts of team-based incentives remains scarce. Compared to individual incentives, team incentives can affect productivity by changing both workers’ eff...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Enfranchisement and Representation: Italy 1909-1913

Valentino Larcinese

This paper presents evidence on the consequences of the 1912 introduction of 'quasiuniversal' male suffrage in Italy. The reform increased the electorate from slightly less than three million to 8,650,000 and left the el...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

TESTING FOR STRUCTURAL STABILITY IN THE WHOLE SAMPLE

Javier Hidalgo and Myunghwan Seo

The paper examines a Lagrange Multiplier type test for the constancy of the parameter in general models with dependent data without imposing any artificial choice of the possible location of the break. In order to prove ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Towards the ‘Big Society’: What role for neighbourhood working? Evidence from a comparative European study

Catherine Durose, Jonathan France, Liz Richardson and Ruth Lupton

Under the New Labour government, the neighbourhood emerged prominently as a site for policy interventions and as a space for civic activity, resulting in the widespread establishment of neighbourhood-level structures for...Read more...

International Studies Paper

MEIJI JAPAN’S ASCENT TOWARDS WORLD POWER

Ian Nish

A major Japan-British Exhibition was held at the White City, Hammersmith, London, for six months in 1910. Its centenary was celebrated at a conference in the Suntory-Toyota Centre in association with the Japan Foundation...Read more...

CASEpaper

Social Housing and Social Exclusion 2000-2011

Rebecca Tunstall

By some definitions, social housing, social housing tenants are necessarily socially excluded. In other terms, in 2000, social housing tenants were at greater risk of being socially excluded than owner occupiers and priv...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Can Market Failure Cause Political Failure?

Madhav S, Aney, Maitreesh Ghatak and Massimo Morelli

We study how inefficiencies of market failure may be further amplified by political choices made by interest groups created in the inefficient market. We take an occupational choice framework, where agents are endowed he...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Sales and Collusion in a Market with Storage

Francesco Nava and Pasquale Schiraldi

Sales are a widespread and well-known phenomenon that has been documented in several product markets. Regularities in such periodic price reductions appear to suggest that the phenomenon cannot be entirely attributed to ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Field Experiments with Firms

Oriana Bandiera, Iwan Baranky and Imran Rasul

We discuss how the use of field experiments sheds light on long standing research questions relating to firm behavior. We present insights from two classes of experiments: within and across firms, and draw common lessons...Read more...

CASEpaper

The distribution of total greenhouse gas emissions by households in the UK, and some implications for social policy

Ian Gough, Saamah Abdallah, Victoria Johnson, Josh Ryan-Collins and Cindy Smith

This paper maps the distribution of total direct and embodied emissions of greenhouse gases by households in the UK and goes on to analyse their main drivers. Previous research has studied the distribution of direct emis...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

DECENTRALIZATION AND GOVERNANCE

Jean-Paul Faguet

The most important theoretical argument concerning decentralization is that it can improve governance by making government more accountable and responsive to the governed. Improving governance is also central to the moti...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Magnitude and Correlates of Inter-vivos Transfers in the UK

Eleni Karagiannaki

This paper uses data from the British Household Panel Survey and the Attitudes to Inheritances Survey to estimate the magnitude of and the factors that are correlated with private inter-household transfers from parents t...Read more...

CASEpaper

Inequality among the Wealthy

Frank A Cowell

Using the evidence from the Luxembourg Wealth Study it appears that the distribution of wealth in the UK is considerably less than in Canada, the US or Sweden. But does this result come from an underestimate of inequalit...Read more...

CASEpaper

Estimates of the asset-effect: The search for a causal effect of assets on adult health and employment outcomes

Abigail McKnight

In this paper we seek to determine the effect of assets held in early adult life on later outcomes. We specifically look at wages, employment prospects, general health and Malaise. The identification of an asset-effect t...Read more...

CASEpaper

The impact of inheritance on the distribution of wealth: Evidence from the UK

Eleni Karagiannaki

In this paper we examine how the distribution of wealth has been changing in UK over the period 1995 to 2005 and how the sum of inheritance received between 1996-2004 contributed to the observed trends in wealth accumula...Read more...

CASEpaper

A Wealth Tax Abandoned: The role of the UK Treasury 1974-6

Howard Glennerster

The distribution of wealth is widening in many countries and with it the importance of inherited wealth. In 1974 a Labour Government came to power in the United Kingdom committed to introducing an annual wealth tax. It l...Read more...

CASEpaper

Recent trends in the size and the distribution of inherited wealth in the UK

Eleni Karagiannaki

In this paper we document the evolution of the annual flow of inheritances in the UK during the period 1984-2005 and provide estimates for the overall magnitude and the distribution of inherited wealth. Our results indic...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Nation-Building and Conflict in Modern Africa

Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay and Elliott Green

Nation-building has long been seen as an important focus for postcolonial African governments. However, up until now there has been no empirical analysis of either the origins or consequences of these policies. Here we c...Read more...

CASEpaper

Fiscal costs of climate mitigation programmes in the UK: A challenge for social policy?

Samuel Marden and Ian Gough

This paper asks whether the policies and programmes enacted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the UK will compete with other goals of public policy, in particular social policy goals. The Climate Change Act 2008 has ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Employment trajectories and later employment outcomes for mothers in the British Household Panel Survey: An analysis by skill level

Kitty Stewart

Maternal employment formed a central plank in the former Labour Government’s strategy to reduce child poverty. Even where potential jobs were low-skilled and low-paid, policy was explicitly work (rather than training) fi...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Inference on Power Law Spatial Trends (Running Title: Power Law Trends)

Peter M Robinson

Power law or generalized polynomial regressions with unknown real-valued exponents and coefficients, and weakly dependent errors, are considered for observations over time, space or space-time. Consistency and asymptotic...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Adapting Kernel Estimation to Uncertain Smoothness

Yulia Kotlyarova, Marcia M Schafgans and Victoria Zinde-Walsh

For local and average kernel based estimators, smoothness conditions ensure that the kernel order determines the rate at which the bias of the estimator goes to zero and thus allows the econometrician to control the rate...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Measuring Mobility

Frank A Cowell and Emmanuel Flachaire

Our new approach to mobility measurement involves separating out the valuation of positions in terms of individual status (using income, social rank, or other criteria) from the issue of movement between positions. The q...Read more...

CASEpaper

Growing Up in Social Housing in the New Millennium: Housing, Neighbourhoods, and Early Outcomes for Children Born in 2000

Rebecca Tunstall, Ruth Lupton, Dylan Kneale and Andrew Jenkins

This study draws on the Millennium Cohort Study to explore the housing and neighbourhood circumstances of children born in England in 2000 at the age of 5 in 2006. The majority of children experienced good housing condit...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Contractual Structure and Endogenous Matching in Partnershipso

Maitreesh Ghatak and Alexander Karaivanov

We analyze optimal contracts and optimal matching patterns in a simple model of partnership where there is a double-sided moral hazard problem and potential partners differ in their productivity in two tasks. It is possi...Read more...

CASEreport

Place Typologies and their Policy Applications

Ruth Lupton, Alex Fenton, Rebecca Tunstall and Richard Harris

Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Contract Structure, Risk Sharing and Investment Choice

Greg Fischer

Few microfinance-funded businesses grow beyond subsistence entrepreneurship. This paper considers one possible explanation: that the structure of existing microfinance contracts may discourage risky but high-expected ret...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Fragile States and Development Policy

Timothy Besley and Torsten Persson

It is widely recognized that fragile states are key symptoms of under-development in many parts of the world. Such states are incapable of delivering basic services to their citizens and political violence is commonplace...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Incentive and crowding out effects of food assistance: Evidence from randomized evaluation of food-for-training project in Southern Sudan

Munshi Sulaiman

Food assistance is one of the most common forms of safety net programs in postconflict situations. Besides the humanitarian and promotional roles, there are widespread scepticisms of food assistance regarding its possibl...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Trade and the Skill Premium Puzzle with Capital Market Imperfections

Roberto Bonfatti and Maitreesh Ghatak

An interesting puzzle is that trade liberalization in the 1980s and 1990s has been associated with a sharp increase in the skill premium in both developed and developing countries. This is in contrast with neoclassical t...Read more...

CASEpaper

Developing and agreeing a capability list in the British context: What can be learnt from social survey data on 'rights'?

Polly Vizard

The paper examines what can be learnt about the ‘valuation’ of freedoms and opportunities (or capabilities) using a general population social survey data source on values. On the assumption that rights can be understood ...Read more...

DARP Paper

Median Independent Inequality Orderings

Ramses H. Abul Naga and Tarik Yalcin

To date, inequality orderings for ordered response data are only suitable for comparing distributions that share a common median state. In this paper we propose a methodology for comparing distributions irrespective of t...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Asymptotic Theory for Nonparametric Regression with Spatial Data

Peter M Robinson

Nonparametric regression with spatial, or spatio-temporal, data is considered. The conditional mean of a dependent variable, given explanatory ones, is a nonparametric function, while the conditional covariance reflects ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Are there neighbourhood effects on teenage parenthood in the UK, and does it matter for policy? A review of theory and evidence

Ruth Lupton and Dylan Kneale

This paper is a forerunner to an empirical study of neighbourhood effects on teenage parenthood using the British Cohort Study (BCS70). It reviews evidence for the existence of such effects within the quantitative 'neigh...Read more...

CASEpaper

Assessing the sustainability of pension reforms in Europe

Aaron George Grech

Spurred by the ageing transition, many governments have made wide-ranging reforms, dramatically changing Europe's pensions landscape. Nevertheless there remain concerns about future costs, while unease about adequacy is ...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Spreading the Word: Geography, Policy and University Knowledge Diffusion

Sharon Belenzon and Mark Schankerman

Using new data on citations to university patents and scientific publications, and measures of distance based on Google maps, we study how geography affects university knowledge diffusion. We show that knowledge flows fr...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric Estimation of Locally Stationary Diffusion Models

Bonsoo Koo and Oliver Linton

This paper proposes a class of locally stationary diffusion processes. The model has a time varying but locally linear drift and a volatility coefficient that is allowed to vary over time and space. We propose estimators...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric Estimation of Markov Decision Processeswith Continuous State Space

Sorawoot Srisuma and Oliver Linton

We propose a general two-step estimation method for the structural parameters of popular semiparametric Markovian discrete choice models that include a class of Markovian Games and allow for continuous observable state s...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Loch Linear Fitting under Near Epoch Dependence: Uniform Consistency with Convergence Rate

Degui Li, Zudi Lu and Oliver Linton

Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in nonlinear statistical and econometric modelling. Lu and Linton (2007) established the point wise asymptotic distribution (central limit theorem) for the local lin...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Repayment Frequency in Microfinance Contracts with Present-Biased Borrowers

Greg Fischer and Maitreesh Ghatak

This paper analyzes the theoretical underpinnings of high-frequency repayment, a feature in nearly all microfinance contracts that has been largely overlooked by theorists. The pervasive belief among practitioners that f...Read more...

International Studies Paper

Weaknesses in Japan’s Postwar Politics

Reiko Oyama and Tomoki Takeda

Discusses Japan’s political immobilism caused by lack of strong ministerial leadership and failure of reform initiatives. Attributes it to the power of factions within political parties which reforms have failed to break...Read more...

CASEreport

Housing Futures: our homes and communities. A report for the Federation of Master Builders

Laura Lane and Anne Power

Forward by Ron Storer, President, Federation of Master Builders: The housing system is intrinsically linked to almost every major area of government policy from the economy and taxation to the environment and education. ...Read more...

CASEreport

What do the public think about economic and social rights? Research Report to Inform the Debate about a Bill of Rights and a Written Constitution

Polly Vizard

Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Thinness and Obesity: A Model of Food Consumption, Health Concerns, and Social Pressure

Davide Dragone and Luca Savorelli

The increasing concern of the policy maker about eating behavior has focused on the spread of obesity and on the evidence of a consistent number of individuals dieting despite being underweight. As the latter behavior is...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

The Tyranny Puzzle in Welfare Economics: An empirical investigation

Frank A Cowell, Marc Fleurbaey and Bertil Tungodden

We address a puzzle in welfare economics – the possibility that rational people may be simultaneously against two apparently con‡icting forms of “tyranny.” In fact the two types of tyranny can be reconciled but at the po...Read more...

Public Economics Programme Discussion Paper

Optimal Control of Externalities in the Presence of Income Taxation

Louis Kaplow

A substantial literature examines second-best environmental policy, focusing particularly on how the Pigouvian directive that marginal taxes should equal marginal external harms needs to be modified in light of the preex...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Statistical Inference on Regression with Spatial Dependence

Peter M Robinson and Supachoke Thawornkaiwong

Central limit theorems are developed for instrumental variables estimates of linear and semi-parametric partly linear regression models for spatial data. General forms of spatial dependence and heterogeneity in explanato...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

The Reversal of Fortune Thesis Reconsidered

Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay and Elliott Green

Acemoglu, Johnson, & Robinson (2002) have claimed that the world income distribution underwent a 'Reversal of Fortune' from 1500 to the present, whereby formerly rich countries in what is now the developing world became ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Trending Regression with Cross-Sectional Dependence

Peter M Robinson

Panel data, whose series length T is large but whose cross-section size N need not be, are assumed to have a common time trend. The time trend is of unknown form, the model includes additive, unknown, individual-specific...Read more...

CASEreport

An Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK - Report of the National Equality Panel

John Hills

Britain is an unequal country, more so than many other industrial countries and more so than a generation ago. This is manifest in many ways - most obviously in the gap between those who are well off and those who are le...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Community Networks and Poverty Reduction Programmes: Evidence from Bangladesh

Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Selim Gulesci and Imran Rasul

Whether basic entrepreneurship can be inculcated amongst the poorest in society and serve as a route out of poverty remains an open question. We provide evidence on this issue by looking at the effects of a large-scale a...Read more...

DARP Paper

Redistributive Taxation, Public Expenditure and the Size of Government

Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay and Joan Esteban

We introduce a model of redistributive income taxation and public expenditure. This joint treatment permits analyzing the interdependencies between the two policies: one cannot be chosen independently of the other. Empir...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Thanks for Nothing? Not-for-Profits and Motivated Agents

Maitreesh Ghatak and Hannes Mueller

We re-examine the labor donation theory of not-for-profits and show that these organizations may exist not necessarily because motivated workers prefer to work in them, or that they dominate for-profits in terms of welfa...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Efficient Estimation of a Multivariate Multiplicative Volatility Model

Christian M. Hafner and Oliver Linton

We propose a multivariate generalization of the multiplicative volatility model of Engle and Rangel (2008), which has a nonparametric long run component and a unit multivariate GARCH short run dynamic component. We sugge...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

ESTIMATION OF A SEMIPARAMETRIC IGARCH(1,1) MODEL

Woocheol Kim and Oliver Linton

We propose a semiparametric IGARCH model that allows for persistence in variance but also allows for more flexible functional form. We assume that the difference of the squared process is weakly stationary. We propose an...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Regression with a Latent Time Series

Oliver Linton, Søren Feodor Nielsen and Jens Perch Nielsen

In this paper we investigate a class of semiparametric models for panel datasets where the cross-section and time dimensions are large. Our model contains a latent time series that is to be estimated and perhaps forecast...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Second-Hand Markets and Collusion by Manufacturers of Semidurable Goods

Pasquale Schiraldi

The focus of the present work is to study the impact of the second-hand market the collusive behavior. I analyze firms’ preferences for having an active second-hand market and whether policies (i.e. leasing policy, buy-b...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Bad Apples: Political Paralysis and the Quality of Politicians

Gabriel Leon

Why do elected officials often suffer from political paralysis and fail to implement the best policies available? This paper considers a new yet intuitive explanation that focuses on the quality of the politicians compet...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Optimal Smoothing for a Computationally and Statistically Efficient Single Index Estimator

Wolfgang Härdle, Oliver Linton and Yingcun Xia

In semiparametric models it is a common approach to under-smooth the nonparametric functions in order that estimators of the finite dimensional parameters can achieve root-n consistency. The requirement of under-smoothin...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Soldiers or Bureaucrats? Conflict and the Military’s Role in Policy-Making

Gabriel Leon

One of the most striking institutional features of many less developed countries is that their militaries are closely involved in policy-making, potentially having a large impact on economic outcomes. This paper examines...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

An Alternative Way of Computing Efficient Instrumental Variable Estimators

Xiaohong Chen, David T. Jacho-Chávez and Oliver Linton

A new way of constructing efficient semiparametric instrumental variable estimators is proposed. The method involves the combination of a large number of possibly inefficient estimators rather than combining the instrume...Read more...

CASEpaper

Women’s family histories and incomes in later life in the UK, US and West Germany

Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham and Tom Sefton

Using data from several large scale longitudinal surveys, this paper investigates the relationship between older women’s families histories and their personal incomes in later life in the UK, US and West Germany, By comp...Read more...

CASEpaper

Reducing the Risks to Health: The role of social protection Report of the Social Protection Task Group for the Strategic Review of Health Inequalities in England Post 2010

Howard Glennerster

We demonstrate that the introduction of social protection systems as well as their generosity and coverage have significant impacts on health. Who receives the benefits within the household affects the health outcomes fo...Read more...

CASEpaper

The relationship between women’s work histories and incomes in later life in the UK, US and West Germany

Tom Sefton, Jane Falkingham and Maria Evandrou

Using data from several large scale longitudinal surveys, this paper investigates the relationship between older women’s personal incomes and their work histories in the UK, US and West Germany. By comparing three countr...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Estimation of a Polarization Measure

Gordon Anderson, Oliver Linton and Yoon-Jae Whang

This paper develops methodology for nonparametric estimation of a polarization measure due to Anderson (2004) and Anderson, Ge, and Leo (2006) based on kernel estimation techniques. We give the asymptotic distribution th...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller

This paper exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. We begin with a linear model that estimates the average tr...Read more...

DARP Paper

Goodness-of-Fit: An Economic Approach

Frank A Cowell, Emmanuel Flachaire and Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay

Specific functional forms are often used in economic models of distributions; goodness-of-fit measures are used to assess whether a functional form is appropriate in the light of real-world data. Standard approaches use ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Do Small States Get More Federal Monies? Myth and Reality About the US Senate Malapportionment

Valentino Larcinese, Leonzio Rizzo and Cecilia Testa

We analyze the relationship between senate malapportionment and the allocation of the US federal budget to the states during the period 1978-2002. A substantial literature originating from the influential paper by ?) fin...Read more...

DARP Paper

The Class of Absolute Decomposable Inequality Measures

Kristof Bosmans and Frank A Cowell

We provide a parsimonious axiomatisation of the complete class of absolute nequality indices. Our approach uses only a weak form of decomposability and does not require a priori that the measures be differentiable. ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Property Rights and Economic Development

Timothy Besley and Maitreesh Ghatak

This chapter develops a unified analytical framework, drawing on and extending the existing literature on the subject, for studying the role of property rights in economic development. It addresses two fundamental and re...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Large-Sample Inference on Spatial Dependence

Peter M Robinson

We consider cross-sectional data that exhibit no spatial correla- tion, but are feared to be spatially dependent. We demonstrate that a spatial version of the stochastic volatility model of financial econometrics, entail...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

The Flypaper Effect Revisited

Fernando Aragon

This paper argues that there is nothing anomalous about the flypaper effect. I develop a simple median voter model of government spending with costly tax collection that predicts the flypaper effect and provide a quantif...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Candidate nomination procedures and political selection: evidence from Latin American parties

Fernando Aragon

This paper explores empirically the role of nomination procedures on political selection and the determinants for adopting contestable selection methods such as primaries. Using data from Latin American parties, I find e...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Correlation Testing in Time Series, Spatial and Cross-Sectional Data

Peter M Robinson

We provide a general class of tests for correlation in time series, spatial, spatiotemporal and cross-sectional data. We motivate our focus by reviewing how computational and theoretical difficulties of point estimation ...Read more...

International Studies Paper

On the periphery of the Russo-Japanese war, Part 111

Ian Nish and Mizuyo Oyama

This discussion paper is a continuation of the two previous pamphlets which appeared under the title, ‘On the Periphery of the Russo-Japanese war’. A special symposium on this topic was held in the Morishima Room on 8 Ma...Read more...

CASEpaper

Family ties: Women’s work and family histories and their association with incomes in later life in the UK

Tom Sefton, Maria Evandrou and Jane Falkingham

This paper examines the relationship between the family and work histories of older women in the UK and their individual incomes in later life, using retrospective data from the first fifteen waves of the British Househo...Read more...

DARP Paper

Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Well-Being

Ramses H. Abul Naga and Karine Lamiraud

According to the catastrophic health expenditure methodology a household is in catastrophe if its health out-of-pocket budget share exceeds a critical threshold. We develop a conceptual framework for addressing three que...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Impact of Policy Change on Job Retention and Advancement

Richard Dickens and Abigail McKnight

This paper examines the impact of the Working Families Tax Credit (WFTC) on employment retention and advancement. The WFTC, which replaced Family Credit in October 1999, supplemented earnings of low paid workers living i...Read more...

CASEpaper

Assimilation of Migrants into the British Labour Market

Richard Dickens and Abigail McKnight

This paper discusses the extent to which migrants to Britain have been assimilated into the workforce. Migration into Britain has increased over the last 25 years, with a big increase in inflows in recent years. The pape...Read more...

CASEpaper

Changes in earnings inequality and mobility in Great Britain 1978/9-2005/6

Richard Dickens and Abigail McKnight

This paper examines changes in earnings inequality and mobility between 1978/9 and 2005/6 using a unique dataset that includes both those with secure patterns of employment and a wider group who experience periods withou...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Motivation and Sorting in Open Source Software Innovation

Sharon Belenzon and Mark Schankerman

This paper studies the role of intrinsic motivation, reputation and reciprocity in driving open source software innovation. We exploit the observed pattern of contributions - the 'revealed preference' of developers - to ...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Pandering Judges

Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Clare Leaver

Tenured public officials such as judges are often thought to be indifferent to the concerns of the electorate and, as a result, potentially lacking in discipline but unlikely to pander to public opinion. We investigate t...Read more...

Development Discussion Paper

Decolonization: the Role of Changing World Factor Endowments

Roberto Bonfatti

European colonialism had two key economic aspects: the extraction of colonial wealth by colonizers, and the relevance of trade for colonial economies. I build a simple model of colonialism which puts these two elements a...Read more...

DARP Paper

Statistical Inference for Multidimensional Inequality Indices

Ramses H. Abul Naga

We use the delta method to derive the large sample distribution of multidimensional inequality indices. We also present a simple method for computing standard errors and obtain explicit formulas in the context of two fam...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Smoothness Adaptive Average Derivative Estimation

Marcia M Schafgans and Victoria Zinde-Walsh

Many important models, such as index models widely used in limited dependent variables, partial linear models and nonparametric demand studies utilize estimation of average derivatives (sometimes weighted) of the conditi...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Statute Law or Case Law?

Luca Anderlini, Leonardo Felli and Alessandro Riboni

In a Case Law regime Courts have more flexibility than in a Statute Law regime. Since Statutes are inevitably incomplete, this confers an advantage to the Statute Law regime over the Case Law one. However, all Courts rul...Read more...

CASEpaper

Welfare Reform in the United States: Implications for British Social Policy (with commentaries by Kitty Stewart, David Piachaud and Howard Glennerster)

James Midgley

Recent government pronouncements in the UK and above all the recent Conservative Party (2008) policy document on welfare reform suggest that US welfare reform is increasingly being taken as a model for the UK. What lesso...Read more...

Japanese Studies Programme Paper

Earnings Quality, Accruals and Subjective Goodwill Accounting

Yuko Katsuo

This paper analyses accounting accruals that may relate to earnings quality and its information content. The characteristics specifying earning quality are discussed according to research surveys of earnings quality. The...Read more...

CASEreport

Transforming Cities across Europe: An interim report on problems and progress

Anne Power, Jorg Ploger and Astrid Winkler

Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Bootstrap Tests of Stochastic Dominance with Asymptotic Similarity on the Boundary

Oliver Linton, Kyungchul Song and Yoon-Jae Whang

We propose a new method of testing stochastic dominance which improves on existing tests based on bootstrap or subsampling. Our test requires estimation of the contact sets between the marginal distributions. Our tests h...Read more...

CASEpaper

Driven to swim with the tide? Urban redevelopment and community participation in China

Hyun Bang Shin

Over the last decade, there has been growing attention to the issue of neighbourhood governance and community participation in China. The focus has been on the extent to which community involvement in rule-making and dec...Read more...

CASEpaper

Understanding the relationship between parental income and multiple child outcomes: A decomposition analysis

Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook

In this paper we explore the association between family income and children’s cognitive ability (IQ and school performance), socio-emotional outcomes (self esteem, locus of control and behavioural problems) and physical ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Are current levels of air pollution in England too high? The impact of pollution on population mortality

Katharina Janke, Carol Propper and J. Vernon Henderson

We examine the relationship between common sources of airborne pollution and population mortality in present day England. The current air quality limit values are low by both historical and international standards, and t...Read more...

CASEreport

Leipzig City Report

Jorg Ploger

Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Just Rewards? Local Politics and Public Resource Allocation in South India

Timothy Besley, Rohini Pande and Vijayendra Rao

This paper uses data on elected village councils in South India to examine the political economy of public resource allocation. We find that the pattern of policy-making reflects politicians' self-interest. Elected counc...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Multiple Local Whittle Estimation in Stationary Systems

Peter M Robinson

Moving from univariate to bivariate jointly dependent long memory time series introduces a phase parameter (?), at the frequency of principal interest, zero; for short memory series ? = 0 automatically. The latter case h...Read more...

DARP Paper

Distributional Orderings: An Approach with Seven Flavours

Wulf Gaertner, Frank A Cowell and Yoram Amiel

We examine individuals' distributional orderings in a number of contexts. This is done by using a questionnaire-experiment that is presented to respondents in any one of seven “flavours” or interpretations of the basic d...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Efficient Estimation of a Semiparametric Characteristic-Based Factor Model of Security Returns

Gregory Connor, Matthias Hagmann and Oliver Linton

This paper develops a new estimation procedure for characteristic-based factor models of security returns. We treat the factor model as a weighted additive nonparametric regression model, with the factor returns serving ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Inference about Realized Volatility using Infill Subsampling

Ilze Kalnina and Oliver Linton

We investigate the use of subsampling for conducting inference about the quadratic variation of a discretely observed diffusion process under an infill asymptotic scheme. We show that the usual subsampling method of Poli...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

DIAGNOSTIC TESTING FOR COINTEGRATION

Peter Robinson

We develop a sequence of tests for specifying the cointegrating rank of, possibly fractional, multiple time series. Memory parameters of observables are treated as unknown, as are those of possible cointegrating errors. ...Read more...

International Studies Paper

Bond Markets and Banks in Inter-War Japan

Makoto Kasuya

Issues of bonds increased in inter-war Japan, the main investors in bonds being banks because demand for loans declined in this period. Banks that were more tolerant of risks (that is, whose capital ratio was higher) mad...Read more...

CASEpaper

Freedom to be a Child: Commercial Pressures on Children

David Piachaud

Children’s lives have been transformed over the past century. Family incomes have increased, children lead more solitary lives, attitudes to childhood have changed, new products have been developed and commercial pressur...Read more...

CASEpaper

Welfare Reforms and Child Well-Being in the US and UK

Jane Waldfogel

This paper examines the effects of recent welfare reforms in the US and UK on the well-being of children in low-income families, looking specifically at the effects on poverty, family expenditures, and child health and d...Read more...

CASEpaper

Socio-Economic Status and Child Behaviour: Evidence from a contemporary UK cohort

Carol Propper and John A. Rigg

This paper examines whether and how socio-economic status is associated with children’s behavioural development in today’s children. Using a large cohort of English children born in the early 1990s we find significant so...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Broad Cross-License Agreements and Persuasive Patent Litigation: Theory and Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry

Alberto Galasso

In many industries broad cross-license agreements are considered a useful method to obtain freedom to operate and to avoid patent litigation. In this paper I study the previously neglected dynamic trade-off between litig...Read more...

CASEpaper

Refinancing Europe’s Higher Education through Deferred and Income-Contingent Fees: An empirical assessment using Belgian, German and UK data

Vincent Vandenberghe and O Debande

The arguments for refinancing the European Union’s (EU) higher education via higher tuition fees largely rest on preserving the profitability of the educational investment and offering deferred and income-contingent paym...Read more...

CASEpaper

Family Income and Tertiary Education Attendance across the EU: An empirical assessment using sibling data

Vincent Vandenberghe

There is plenty of evidence across the EU to suggest that young people from poorer backgrounds are less likely to attend tertiary education than their better-off peers. This correlation is often used to justify monetary ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

ON DISCRETE SAMPLING OF TIME-VARYING CONTINUOUS-TIME SYSTEMS

Peter Robinson

We consider a multivariate continuous time process, generated by a system of linear stochastic differential equations, driven by white noise and involving coefficients that possibly vary over time. The process is observa...Read more...

DARP Paper

Inequality Measurement for Ordered Response Health Data

Ramses H. Abul Naga and Tarik Yalcin

When health status is an ordered response variable, Allison and Foster (2004) postulate that a distribution Q ?exhibits more inequality than a distribution P ?if Q ?is obtained from P ?via a sequence of median preserving...Read more...

CASEpaper

Understanding low achievement in English schools

Geeta Gandhi Kingdon and Robert Cassen

Tens of thousands of young people leave school with no or very few qualifications in England. This paper seeks to build a fuller picture of Key Stage 4 low achievement and its correlates than available hitherto. We focus...Read more...

CASEpaper

Employment trajectories for mothers in low-skilled work: Evidence from the British Lone Parent Cohort

Kitty Stewart

UK government policy encourages mothers of young children in low-income families to enter or return to work, via tax credit subsidies and support for childcare. Maternal employment is seen a central plank in the campaign...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Making Autocracy Work

Timothy Besley and Masayuki Kudamatsu

One of the key goals of political economy is to understand how institutional arrangements shape policy outcomes. This paper studies a comparatively neglected aspect of this - the forces that shape heterogeneous performan...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Fractional Cointegration In Stochastic Volatility Models

Afonso Gonçalves da Silva and Peter M Robinson

Asset returns are frequently assumed to be determined by one or more common factors. We consider a bivariate factor model, where the unobservable common factor and idiosyncratic errors are stationary and serially uncorre...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

SPECIFICATION TESTING FOR REGRESSION MODELS WITH DEPENDENT DATA

Javier Hidalgo

We describe and examine a consistent test for the correct specification of a regression function with dependent data. The test is based on the supremum of the difference between the parametric and nonparametric estimates...Read more...

CASEpaper

Developing a capability list: Final Recommendations of the Equalities Review Steering Group on Measurement

Polly Vizard and Tania Burchardt

In October 2007, a unified Commission on Equality and Human Rights (CEHR) will begin operation in Britain. The Commission will have responsibility for monitoring and promoting human rights and equality on the grounds of ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Definition of equality and framework for measurement: Final Recommendations of the Equalities Review Steering Group on Measurement

Tania Burchardt and Polly Vizard

In October 2007, a unified Commission on Equality and Human Rights (CEHR) will begin operation in Britain. The Commission will have responsibility for monitoring and promoting human rights and equality on the grounds of ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Child Support Awards in Britain: An analysis of data from the Families and Children Study

Stephen Morris

This paper examines the extent to which mothers that care for children where the father is non-resident have an award or agreement for child support in place. Data from the Families and Children Study are used to explore...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Group deliberation and the transformation of judgments: an impossibility result

Christian List

While a large social-choice-theoretic literature discusses the aggregation of individual judgments into collective ones, there is relatively little formal work on the transformation of individual judgments in group delib...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Estimation of Nonlinear Error Correction Models

Myung Hwan Seo

Asymptotic inference in nonlinear vector error correction models (VECM) that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is nonstandard and complicated. This paper contributes the literature in several important ways. Fir...Read more...

DARP Paper

On the Measurement of Polarisation: A questionnaire study

Yoram Amiel, Frank A Cowell and Xavier Ramos

Starting from the axiomatisation of polarisation contained in Esteban and Ray (1994) and Chakravarty and Majumdar (2001) we investigate whether people’s perceptions of income polarisation is consistent with the key axiom...Read more...

DARP Paper

Modelling Vulnerability in the UK

Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay and Frank A Cowell

In this paper we examine the concept of 'vulnerability' (Townsend 1994) within the context of income mobility of the poor. We test for the dynamics of vulnerable households in the UK using Waves 1 - 12 of the British Hou...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF A BINARY RESPONSE MODEL WITH A CHANGE-POINT DUE TO A COVARIATE THRESHOLD

Sokbae Lee and Myunghwan Seo

This paper is concerned with semiparametric estimation of a threshold binary response model. The estimation method considered in the paper is semiparametric since the parameters for a regression function are finite-dimen...Read more...

CASEpaper

Using the British Household Panel Survey to explore changes in housing tenure in England

Tom Sefton

Very little information exists about households’ longer-term movements between tenures. Some cross-section datasets include information on length of stay in any residence but we have no systematic study of movement over ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Efficient Estimation of the Semiparametric Spatial Autoregressive Model

Peter M Robinson

Efficient semiparametric and parametric estimates are developed for a spatial autoregressive model, containing nonstochastic explanatory variables and innovations suspected to be non-normal. The main stress is on the cas...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

The Political Economy of Housing Supply: Homeowners, Workers, and Voters

Francois Ortalo-Magne and Andrea Prat

Equilibrium of the housing market depends on a complex set of interactions between: (1) individual location decisions; (2) individual housing investment; (3) collective decisions on urban growth. We embed these three ele...Read more...

CASEpaper

Pension Policy in EU25 and its Possible Impact on Elderly Poverty

Asghar Zaidi, Aaron George Grech and Michael Fuchs

This paper reviews changes in pension policies in EU countries between 1995 and 2005 and describes how they might affect risk of poverty for future pensioner populations. The pension landscape in Europe has changed consi...Read more...

CASEpaper

Tibor Barna: The redistributive impact of taxes and social policies in the UK: 1937-2005

Howard Glennerster

Regular annual studies made by the Office of National Statistics in the UK are intended to show how far taxing household incomes and giving benefits in cash and kind to households redistributes income from rich to poor. ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Selectivity and the gender wage gap decomposition in the presence of a joint decision process

Marcia M Schafgans and Morton Stelcnery

In this paper we revisit the gender decomposition of wages in the presence of selection bias. We show that when labor market participation decisions of couples are not independent, the sample selection corrections used i...Read more...

DARP Paper

Inequality and Envy

Frank A Cowell and Udo Ebert

Using a simple axiomatic structure we characterise two classes of inequality indices - absolute and relative - that take into account “envy” in the income distribution. The concept of envy incorporated here concerns the ...Read more...

DARP Paper

Growth and inequality: a demographic explanation

Kazutoshi Miyazawa

This paper investigates the relationship between growth and inequality from a demographic point of view. In an extended model of the accidental bequest with endogenous fertility, we analyze the effects of a decrease in o...Read more...

CASEpaper

Work-Life Balance in a Low-Income Neighbourhood

Hartley Dean and Alice Coulter

‘Work-life balance’ generally refers to how people may combine paid employment with family responsibilities. The UK government’s attempts to promote work-life balance are connected to wider concerns to maximise labour-fo...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Social Protection of Rural Workers in the Construction Industry in Urban China

Bingqin Li and Huamin Peng

The construction industry is important for Chinese rural to urban migrants. Over 90% of urban construction workers are rural migrants, and over a third of all rural migrants work in construction. The construction industr...Read more...

International Studies Paper

Japanese Monarchy: Past and Present

Ben-Ami Shillony and Antony Best

Shillony: Paper examines how Japan’s imperial dynasty dependent on the male line of succession has lasted so long and analyses how it will overcome its present difficulties. An Advisory Panel was created to recommend fut...Read more...

CASEpaper

Transition from Work to Retirement in EU25

Asghar Zaidi, Mattia Makovec and Michael Fuchs

The policy agenda of extending working lives requires a holistic understanding of factors underlying the decision of older workers to withdraw from work and to retire. This brief paper presents employment patterns and tr...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Active Courts and Menu Contracts

Luca Anderlini, Leonardo Felli and Andrew Postlewaite

We describe and analyze a contractual environment that allows a role for an active court. The model we analyze is the same as in Anderlini, Felli, and Postlewaite (2006). An active court can improve on the outcome that t...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

The Effect of Direct Democracy on Income Redistribution: Evidence for Switzerland

Lars P. Feld, Justina A.V. Fischer and Gebhard Kirchgässner

There is an intensive dispute in political economics about the impact of institutions on income redistribution. While the main focus is on comparison between different forms of representative democracy, the influence of ...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

SHOULD COURTS ALWAYS ENFORCE WHAT CONTRACTING PARTIES WRITE? This paper replaces TE/2003/464

Luca Anderlini, Leonardo Felli and Andrew Postlewaite

We find an economic rationale for the common sense answer to the question in our title — courts should not always enforce what the contracting parties write. We describe and analyze a contractual environment that allows ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Estimating Quadratic Variation Consistently in the Presence of Correlated Measurement Error

Ilze Kalnina and Oliver Linton

We propose an econometric model that captures the e¤ects of market microstructure on a latent price process. In particular, we allow for correlation between the measurement error and the return process and we allow the m...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Identification and Nonparametric Estimation of a Transformed Additively Separable Model

David T. Jacho-Chávez, Arthur Lewbel and Oliver Linton

Let r (x, z) be a function that, along with its derivatives, can be consistently estimated nonparametrically. This paper discusses identification and consistent estimation of the unknown functions H, M, G and F, where r ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

ESTIMATING FEATURES OF A DISTRIBUTION FROM BINOMIAL DATA

Arthur Lewbel, Oliver Linton and DL McFadden

A statistical problem that arises in several fields is that of estimating the features of an unknown distribution, which may be conditioned on covariates, using a sample of binomial observations on whether draws from thi...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric Estimation of a Characteristic-based Factor Model of Common Stock Returns

Gregory Connor and Oliver Linton

We introduce an alternative version of the Fama-French three-factor model of stock returns together with a new estimation methodology. We assume that the factor betas in the model are smooth nonlinear functions of observ...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Cross-Country Determinants of Life Satisfaction: Exploring Different Determinants across Groups in Society

Christian Bjørnskov, Axel Dreher and Justina A.V. Fischer

This paper explores a wide range of cross-country determinants of life satisfaction exploiting a database of 90,000 observations in 70 countries. We distinguish four groups of aggregate variables as potential determinant...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Conditional-Sum-of-Squares Estimation of Models for Stationary Time Series with Long Memory

Peter M Robinson

Employing recent results of Robinson (2005) we consider the asymptotic properties of conditional-sum-of-squares (CSS) estimates of parametric models for stationary time series with long memory. CSS estimation has been co...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

TESTING FOR STOCHASTIC MONOTONICITY

Sokbae Lee, Oliver Linton and Yoon-Jae Whang

We propose a test of the hypothesis of stochastic monotonicity. This hypothesis is of interest in many applications. Our test is based on the supremum of a rescaled U-statistic. We show that its asymptotic distribution i...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Transformation to White Noise

Oliver Linton and Enno Mammen

We consider a semiparametric distributed lag model in which the “news impact curve” m is nonparametric but the response is dynamic through some linear filters. A special case of this is a nonparametric regression with se...Read more...

DARP Paper

Inequality: Measurement

Frank A Cowell

This article provides a brief overview of the key issues in inequality measurement and has been prepared for inclusion in the second edition of The New Palgrave....Read more...

CASEpaper

Foundations for measuring equality: A discussion paper for the Equalities Review

Tania Burchardt

The Equalities Review is an independent panel set up by the UK government in 2005 to investigate the persistence of social inequalities and to make recommendations for the development of a unified Commission for Equality...Read more...

CASEpaper

From Beveridge to Turner: Demography, Distribution and the Future of Pensions in the UK

John Hills

This article outlines the recommendations of the UK Pensions Commission, and the data and analysis on which they were based, including projections of demographic change, trends in private pension saving, and evolution of...Read more...

DARP Paper

To Be or not To Be Involved: A Questionnaire-Experimental View on Harsanyi’s Utilitarian Ethics

Yoram Amiel, Frank A Cowell and Wulf Gaertner

According to standard theory founded on Harsanyi (1953, 1955) a social welfare function can be appropriately based on the individual’s approach to choice under uncertainty. We investigate whether people really do rank di...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Strategic Patenting and Software Innovation

Michael Noel and Mark Schankerman

Strategic patenting is widely believed to raise the costs of innovating, especially in industries characterised by cumulative innovation. This paper studies the effects of strategic patenting on R&D, patenting and market...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration

Javier Hualde and Peter M Robinson

A semiparametric bivariate fractionally cointegrated system is considered, integration orders possibly being unknown and I (0) unobservable inputs having nonparametric spectral density. Two kinds of estimate of the coint...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Finite Sample Performance in Cointegration Analysis of Nonlinear Time Series with Long Memory

Afonso Gonçalves da Silva and Peter M Robinson

Nonlinear functions of multivariate financial time series can exhibit long memory and fractional cointegration. However, tools for analysing these phenomena have principally been justified under assumptions that are inva...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

BEING THE NEW YORK TIMES: THE POLITICAL BEHAVIOUR OF A NEWSPAPER

Riccardo Puglisi

I analyze a dataset of news from the New York Times, from 1946 to 1997. Controlling for the incumbent President's activity across issues, I find that during the presidential campaign the New York Times gives more emphasi...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Stationary and Nonstationary Cointegrating Regressions

Peter M Robinson and M. Gerolimetto

Instrumental variables estimation is classically employed to avoid simultaneous equations bias in a stable environment. Here we use it to improve upon ordinary least squares estimation of cointegrating regressions betwee...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

TESTING MODELS OF DISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS USING EXIT POLLS TO MEASURE VOTER PREFERENCES AND PARTISANSHIP

Valentino Larcinese, James M. Snyder, Jr. and Cecilia Testa

This paper tests various hypotheses about distributive politics by studying the distribution of federal spending across U.S. states over the period 1978-2002. We improve on previous work by using survey data to measure t...Read more...

CASEpaper

Assessing the impact of illness, caring and ethnicity on social activity

Lucinda Platt

It has long been accepted that lack of social participation in wider society is one aspect or one definition of poverty. Current concerns with the extent and distribution of social capital as both a measure of a good soc...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Information Acquisition, Ideology and Turnout: Theory and Evidence from Britain

Valentino Larcinese

The amount of political information that voters decide to acquire during an electoral campaign depends, among other things, on prior ideological beliefs about parties and/or candidates. Voters that are ex ante indifferen...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

ROOT-N-CONSISTENT ESTIMATION OF WEAK FRACTIONAL COINTEGRATION

Javier Hualde and Peter M Robinson

Empirical evidence has emerged of the possibility of fractional cointegration such that the gap, ß, between the integration order d of observable time series, and the integration order ? of cointegrating errors, is less ...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Decentralization's Effects on Educational Outcomes in Bolivia and Colombia

Jean-Paul Faguet and Fabio Sanchez

The effects of decentralization on public sector outputs is much debated but little agreed upon. This paper compares the remarkable case of Bolivia with the more complex case of Colombia to explore decentralization’s eff...Read more...

DARP Paper

Anti-evasion auditing policy in the presence of common income shocks

Miguel Sanchez

When fairly homogeneous taxpayers are affected by common income shocks, a tax agency’s optimal auditing strategy consists of auditing a low-income declarer with a probability that (weakly) increases with the other taxpay...Read more...

DARP Paper

Gini, Deprivation and Complaints

Frank A Cowell

Recent insights from the philosopher Larry Temkin have suggested a new basis for the measurement of income inequality, founded on the notion of individual complaints. about income distribution. Under certain specificatio...Read more...

DARP Paper

Understanding Inequality Trends: Microsimulation Decomposition for Italy

Carlo V. Fiorio

This paper suggests overcoming some limitations of traditional inequality decomposition methods by developing a combination of Burtless (1999) and DiNardo et al. (1996), two different microsimulation methods for decompos...Read more...

CASEpaper

Exploring the effects of integrated benefit systems and active labour market policies: Evidence from Jobcentre Plus in the UK

Eleni Karagiannaki

In April 2002 Jobcentre Plus started to operate in the UK bringing together the service of the Benefits Agency and the Employment Service. Offering a fully integrated benefit claiming and work placement/job-seeking servi...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Does Envy Destroy Social Fundamentals? The Impact of Relative Income Position on Social Capital

Justina A.V. Fischer and Benno Torgler

Research evidence on the impact of relative income position on individual attitudes and behaviour is sorely lacking. Therefore, this paper assesses such positional impact on social capital by applying 14 different measur...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Spectrum Estimation for Spatial Data

Peter M Robinson

Smoothed nonparametric kernel spectral density estimates are considered for stationary data observed on a d-dimensional lattice. The implications for edge effect bias of the choice of kernel and bandwidth are considered....Read more...

DARP Paper

Decomposition of Bivariate Inequality Indices by Attributes

Ramses H. Abul Naga and Pierre-Yves Geoffard

We provide, for the class of relative bidimensional inequality indices, a decomposition of inequality into two univariate Atkinson-Kolm-Sen indices and a third statistic which depends on the joint distribution of resourc...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Optimal Corporation Tax: An I.O. Approach

Luca Colombo, Paola Labrecciosa and Patrick Paul Walsh

Theory predicts that optimal effective corporation tax rates will be negatively related to industry specific sunk costs, and hence industry concentration. Governments should tax industries with monopolistic power softly....Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Consistent estimation of the memory parameter for nonlinear time series

Violetta Dalla, Liudas Giraitis and Javier Hidalgo

For linear processes, semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter, based on the log-periodogram and local Whittle estimators, has been exhaustively examined and their properties are well established. However, excep...Read more...

CASEpaper

Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: An application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK

Arnstein Aassve, Simon Burgess, Matt Dickson and Carol Propper

We pursue an economic approach to analysing poverty. This requires a focus on the variables that individuals can influence, such as forming or dissolving a union or having children. We argue that this indirect approach t...Read more...

DARP Paper

Static and Dynamic Poverty in Spain, 1993-2000,(published in Hacienda Pública, no 179 (2007), pp. 51-77)

Elena Bárcena-Martín and Frank A Cowell

We focus on the statics and dynamics of poverty in Spain using data from the first eight waves of the European Community Household Panel from 1994 to 2001, a period not sufficiently covered by recent literature. The resu...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Dynamics of School Attainment of England's Ethnic Minorities

Deborah Wilson, Simon Burgess and Adam Briggs

We exploit a universe dataset of state school students in England with linked test score records to document the evolution of attainment through school for different ethnic groups. The analysis yields a number of strikin...Read more...

CASEpaper

Changes in the Living Arrangements of Elderly People in Greece: 1974-1999

Eleni Karagiannaki

During the period 1974-1999 the percentage of elderly living with their children in Greece reduced from 55 per cent to about 32 per cent. In this paper we examine determinants of the decrease in intergenerational co-resi...Read more...

CASEpaper

Labour Market Disadvantage amongst Disabled People: A longitudinal perspective

John A. Rigg

Considerable cross-sectional evidence has highlighted the lower employment rates and earnings amongst disabled people in Britain. But very little is known about the progression of disabled people in employment. This stud...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

A Smoothed Least Squares Estimator For Threshold Regression Models

Myunghwan Seo and Oliver Linton

We propose a smoothed least squares estimator of the parameters of a threshold regression model. Our model generalizes that considered in Hansen (2000) to allow the thresholding to depend on a linear index of observed re...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of ARCH(8) Models

Peter M Robinson and Paolo Zaffaroni

Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the Gaussian pseudo-maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in a wide class of ARCH(8) processes are established. We require the ARCH weights to decay at least hyperbo...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Women in Politics. Evidence from the Indian states

Irma Clots-Figueras

This paper uses panel data from the 16 main states in India during the period 1967- 1999 to study the effects of having higher female representation in the State Legislatures on public goods, policy and expenditure. I fi...Read more...

DARP Paper

Hierarchic contracting

Rafael Hortala-Vallve and Miguel Sanchez

We analyze the contracting structure in a moral hazard setting with several agents where output is produced jointly and is the only contractible variable. Since the salary of each agent is a function of all agents effort...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

GOVERNANCE FROM BELOW A Theory of Local Government With Two Empirical Tests

Jean-Paul Faguet

I examine decentralization through the lens of the local dynamics that it unleashes. The national effects of decentralization are simply the sum of its local-level effects. Hence to understand decentralization we must fi...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification

Stephen J. Redding and Daniel M. Sturm

This paper exploits the division of Germany after the Second World War and the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990 as a natural experiment to provide evidence of the importance of market access for economic de...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

The Entry of NGO Schools and Girls’ Educational Outcomes in Bangladesh

Pataporn Sukontamarn

This paper uses household, school, and test score data from Bangladesh to compare and contrast the effectiveness of NGO-run and state-run schools in the provision of primary education. I study how the entry of NGOs in pr...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Strategy-proof judgment aggregation

Franz Dietrich and Christian List

In the theory of judgment aggregation on logically connected propositions, an important question remains open: Which aggregation rules are manipulable and which are strategy-proof? We define manipulability and strategy-p...Read more...

DARP Paper

Knowledge-Based Economic Development: Mass Media and the Weightless Economy REVISED MARCH 2009

Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay

We examine associations of mass media and information and communications technologies (ICT) as knowledge-based infrastructures on some economic development outcomes. We .nd that several mass media and ICT penetration var...Read more...

International Studies Paper

The Automobile in Japan

Stewart Lone and Christopher Madeley

Lone: The 1920s saw the emergence in Kansai of modern industrial urban living with the development of the underground, air services; wireless telephones, super express trains etc. Automobiles dominated major streets from...Read more...

DARP Paper

Growth and Inequality: A Demographic Explanation,(published in Journal of Population Economics, vol. 19 (2006), pp. 559-578)

Kazutoshi Miyazawa

This paper investigates the relationship between growth and inequality from a demographic point of view. In an extended model of the accidental bequest with endogenous fertility, we analyze the effects of a decrease in t...Read more...

DARP Paper

Income Fluctuation, Poverty and Well-Being Over Time: Theory and Application to Argentina

Guillermo Cruces

This paper studies poverty as a dynamic phenomenon, motivated by the recurring economic crises that affect developing countries and the incidence of income fluctuations on household welfare. While the increasing availabi...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

A method of moments estimator for semiparametric index models

Bas Donkers and Marcia M Schafgans

We propose an easy to use derivative based two-step estimation procedure for semi-parametric index models. In the first step various functionals involving the derivatives of the unknown function are estimated using nonpa...Read more...

CASEpaper

Health Supplier Quality and the Distribution of Child Health

Carol Propper, John A. Rigg and Simon Burgess

There is emerging evidence to suggest that initial differentials between the health of poor and more affluent children in the UK do not widen over early childhood. One reason may be that through the universal public fund...Read more...

CASEpaper

Parallel lives? Ethnic segregation in schools and neighbourhoods

Simon Burgess, Deborah Wilson and Ruth Lupton

We provide evidence on the extent of ethnic segregation experienced by children across secondary schools and neighbourhoods (wards). Using 2001 Schools Census and Population Census data we employ the indices of dissimila...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Allocating the US Federal Budget to the States: the Impact of the President

Valentino Larcinese, Leonzio Rizzo and Cecilia Testa

This paper provides new evidence on the determinants of the US federal budget allocation to the states. Departing from the existing literature that gives prominence to Congress, we carry on an empirical investigation on ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Modified Whittle Estimation of Multilateral Models on a Lattice

Peter M Robinson and J Vidal Sanz

In the estimation of parametric models for stationary spatial or spatio-temporal data on a d-dimensional lattice, for d >= 2, the achievement of asymptotic efficiency under Gaussianity, and asymptotic normality more gene...Read more...

International Studies Paper

On the Periphery of the Russo-Japanese War Part II

David Steeds and Ian Nish

Steeds: David Davies, a young member of a prominent Welsh commercial/industrial family, spent the period between October 1904 and January 1905 in Japan, Korea and North China. His diary of the journey presents interestin...Read more...

CASEpaper

Non-residential Fatherhood and Child Involvement: Evidence from the Millennium Cohort Study

Kathleen E Kiernan

Fifteen per cent of British babies are now born to parents who are neither cohabiting nor married. Little is known about non-residential fatherhood that commences with the birth of a child. Here, we use the Millennium Co...Read more...

CASEpaper

Expenditure Patterns Post-Welfare Reform in the UK: Are low-income families starting to catch up?

Paul Gregg, Jane Waldfogel and Elizabeth Washbrook

In this paper we provide evidence on how the UK government’s welfare reforms since 1998 have affected the material well-being of children in low-income families. We examine changes in expenditure patterns and ownership o...Read more...

CASEpaper

Parental Investment in Childhood and Later Adult Well-Being: Can More Involved Parents Offset the Effects of Socioeconomic Disadvantage?

Darcy Hango

Parental involvement in their children’s lives can have a lasting impact on well-being. More involved parents convey to their children that they are interested in their development, and this in turn signals to the child ...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Characterizations of long-run producer optima and the short-run approach to long-run market equilibrium: a general theory with applications to peak-load pricing

Anthony Horsley and Andrew J Wrobel

This is a new formal framework for the theory of competitive equilibrium and its applications. Our “short-run approach” means the calculation of long-run producer optima and general equilibria from the short-run solution...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Advanced Purchase Commitments for a Malaria Vaccine: Estimating Costs and Effectiveness

Ernst R. Berndt, Rachel Glennerster, Michael R. Kremer, Jean Lee, Ruth Levine and Georg Weizsäcker

To overcome the problem of insufficient research and development (R&D) on vaccines for diseases concentrated in low-income countries, sponsors could commit to purchase viable vaccines if and when they are developed. One ...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

The Wong-Viner Envelope Theorem for subdifferentiable functions

Anthony Horsley and Andrew J Wrobel

The Wong-Viner Envelope Theorem on the equality of long-run and short-run marginal costs (LRMC and SRMC) is reformulated for convex but generally nondifferentiable cost functions. The marginal cost can be formalized as t...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

A Practical Short-run Approach to Market Equilibrium

Anthony Horsley and Andrew J Wrobel

The “short-run approach” calculates long-run producer optima and general equilibria by building on short-run solutions to the producer’s profit maximization problem and on profit-based valuation of the fixed inputs. We o...Read more...

CASEpaper

Jobcentre Plus or Minus? Exploring the performance of Jobcentre Plus for non-jobseekers

Eleni Karagiannaki

Since April 2002 Jobcentre Plus has started to operate nationwide in the UK providing fully integrated benefit claiming and work placement/job-seeking activities for people of working age. This new organisation put an ex...Read more...

CASEpaper

Perceptions of Redistribution: Report on exploratory qualitative research

Alan Hedges

This paper represents the results of a small-scale qualitative study, exploring public perceptions of the redistributive effects of taxation and public spending in the UK. Redistribution is not at the top of people’s min...Read more...

CASEpaper

An exploration of childhood antecedents of female adult malaise in two British birth cohorts: Combining Bayesian model averaging and recursive partitioning

John Hobcraft and Wendy Sigle-Rushton

We use information from two prospective British birth cohort studies to explore the antecedents of adult malaise, an indicator of incipient depression. These studies include a wealth of information on childhood circumsta...Read more...

CASEpaper

Knowing what is good for you: Empirical analysis of personal preferences and the 'objective good'

Orsolya Lelkes

This paper aims to test empirically if certain frequently used measures of well-being, which are regarded as valuable properties of human life, are actually desired by people. In other words, it investigates whether the ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Public and Private Welfare Activity in the United Kingdom, 1979 to 1999

Rachel Smithies

This paper analyses the shifting balance between public sector and private sector welfare provision in the United Kingdom over the past two decades. Five sectors – education, health, personal social services, housing, an...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Modelling Memory of Economic and Financial Time Series

Peter M Robinson

Much time series data are recorded on economic and financial variables. Statistical modelling of such data is now very well developed, and has applications in forecasting. We review a variety of statistical models from t...Read more...

CASEpaper

Helter Skelter: Families, disabled children and the benefit system

Gabrielle Preston

Families with disabled children are susceptible to poverty because low income is compounded by high costs. Combing caring with employment is extremely difficult, so families are heavily reliant upon benefits. But do disa...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Cycles

Violetta Dalla and Javier Hidalgo

The paper proposes a simple test for the hypothesis of strong cycles and as a by-product a test for weak dependence for linear processes. We show that the limit distribution of the test is the maximum of a (semi)Gaussian...Read more...

Political Economy and Public Policy Paper

Does Political Knowledge Increase Turnout? Evidence from the 1997 British General Election

Valentino Larcinese

A number of recent formal models predict a positive effect of political knowledge on turnout. Both information acquisition and turnout, however, are likely to be determined by a similar set of variables, rendering hard t...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Identifying technology spillovers and product market rivalry

Nicholas Bloom, Mark Schankerman and John Van Reenen

Support for many R&D and technology policies relies on empirical evidence that R&D “spills over” between firms. But there are two countervailing R&D spillovers: positive effects from technology spillovers and negative ef...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Contributions of Professor Amartya Sen in the Field of Human Rights

Polly Vizard

This paper analyses the work of the Nobel Prize winning economist Professor Amartya Sen from the perspective of human rights. It assesses the ways in which Sen’s research agenda has deepened and expanded human rights dis...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Testable Implications of Forecast Optimality

Andrew J. Patton and Allan Timmermann

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted on the assumption of mean squared error loss under which forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrel...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Unit Root Test in a Threshold Autoregression: Asymptotic Theory and Residual-based Block Bootstrap

Myunghwan Seo

There is a growing literature on unit root testing in threshold autoregressive models. This paper makes two contributions to the literature. First, an asymptotic theory is developed for unit root testing in a threshold a...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

The Bootstrap and the Edgeworth Correction for Semiparametric Averaged Derivatives

Yoshihiko Nishiyama and Peter M Robinson

In a number of semiparametric models, smoothing seems necessary in order to obtain estimates of the parametric component which are asymptotically normal and converge at parametric rate. However, smoothing can inflate the...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Distribution Free Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Linear Processes

Miguel A. Delgado, Javier Hidalgo and Carlos Velasco

This article proposes a class of goodness-of-fit tests for the autocorrelation function of a time series process, including those exhibiting long-range dependence. Test statistics for composite hypotheses are functionals...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric Estimation for Stationary Processes whose Spectra have an Unknown Pole

Javier Hidalgo

We consider the estimation of the location of the pole and memory parameter, ?⁰ and a respectively, of covariance stationary linear processes whose spectral density function f(?) satisfies f(?) ~ C|? - ?<sup>0...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

DIFFERENTIAL MERGER EFFECTS: The Case of the Personal Computer Industry

Christos Genakos

This paper examines how information on the purchasing patterns of different customer segments can be used to more accurately evaluate the economic impact of mergers. Using a detailed dataset for the leading manufacturers...Read more...

CASEpaper

Teenage Expectations and Desires about Family Formation in the United States

Robert D. Plotnick

Using data collected in 2000 on a racially and ethnically diverse sample of high school seniors (typically 17-18 years old), this study analyzes teenagers’ expectations and desires about marriage, having children, and be...Read more...

CASEpaper

Income Mobility in Old Age in Britain and Germany

Asghar Zaidi, Joachim R. Frick and Felix Büchel

The increases in human longevity in recent decades and the trends for early retirement have posed new challenges for policy makers, and require a holistic understanding of the processes that influence the economic resour...Read more...

CASEpaper

Social Mobility, Life Chances, and the Early Years

Jane Waldfogel

It is widely agreed that the early years are a particularly important time for efforts to increase social mobility, because a good deal of inequality is already apparent by the time children start school, and because chi...Read more...

CASEpaper

Poverty and Inequality and Social Policy in China

Bingqin Li and David Piachaud

Despite prolonged economic growth, poverty has become a more notable and noted feature of Chinese society. The paper examines three phases of development since the foundation of the People’s Republic: the central plannin...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Efficiency Improvements in Inference on Stationary and Nonstationary Fractional Time Series

Peter M Robinson

We consider a time series model involving a fractional stochastic component, whose integration order can lie in the stationary/invertible or nonstationary regions and be unknown, and additive deterministic component cons...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

'Inferring Conduct under the Threat of Entry: The Case of the Brazilian Cement Industry.'

Alberto Salvo

This paper demonstrates that when an industry faces potential entry and this threat of entry constrains pre-entry prices, cost and conduct are not identified from the comparative statics of equilibrium. In such a setting...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Forecasting the density of asset returns

Trino-Manuel Niguez and Javier Perote

In this paper we introduce a transformation of the Edgeworth-Sargan series expansion of the Gaussian distribution, that we call Positive Edgeworth-Sargan (PES). The main advantage of this new density is that it is well d...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Knowledge Disclosure, Patents and Optimal Organization of Research and Development

Sudipto Bhattacharya and Sergei Guriev

We develop a model of two-stage cumulative research and development (R&D), in which one Research Unit (RU) with an innovative idea bargains to license her nonverifiable interim knowledge exclusively to one of two competi...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Why So Much Centralization? A Model of Primitive Centripetal Accumulation

Jean-Paul Faguet

With strong conceptual arguments in its favor, decentralization is a popular and growing policy trend across the world. And yet dozens of empirical studies have failed to find convincing evidence that past reforms have w...Read more...

International Studies Paper

The Korean Armistice of 1953 and its Consequences - Part II

Rana Mitter and Koji Nakakita

Mitter: China emerged from the Korean War as a more confident actor in the international order. The paper considers three wider contexts within which China's experience of the Korean War should be considered: as part of ...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Impact of Low Income on Child Health: Evidence from a Birth Cohort Study

Simon Burgess, Carol Propper and John A. Rigg

There is a growing literature that shows that higher family income is associated with better health for children. Wealthier parents may have more advantaged children because they have more income to buy health care or be...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Deterministic Trends

Fabrizio Iacone and Peter M Robinson

We consider a cointegrated system generated by processes that may be fractionally integrated, and by additive polynomial and generalized polynomial trends. In view of the consequent competition between stochastic and det...Read more...

International Studies Paper

On the Periphery of the Russo-Japanese War - Part I

John Chapman and Ian Nish

Chapman: Major defects in British naval intelligence were the absence of an effective central department, an inferior network of naval attachés in major capitals prior to 1902 and the lack of secure direct cable communic...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

A General Analysis of Sequential Merger Games with an Application to Cross-Border Mergers

Alberto Salvo

This paper seeks to uncover why the pattern of equilibria in sequential merger games of a certain type is similar across a fairly wide class of models much studied in the literature. By developing general conditions char...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Inference for Unbalanced Time Series Data

Oliver Linton

This paper is concerned with the practical problem of conducting inference in a vector time series setting when the data is unbalanced or incomplete. In this case, one can work only with the common sample, to which a sta...Read more...

CASEpaper

Employment, Family Union, and Childbearing Decisions in Great Britain

Arnstein Aassve, Simon Burgess, Carol Propper and Matt Dickson

The paper investigates the relationship between work and family life in Britain. Using appropriate statistical techniques we estimate a five-equation model, which includes birth events, union formation, union dissolution...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Firm-Specific Training

Leonardo Felli and Christopher Harris

This paper introduces two complementary models of firm-specific training: an informational model and a productivity-enhancement model. In both models, market provision of firm-specific training is inefficient. However, t...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

ROBUST COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION: 'HAC' Estimates with Long Memory/Antipersistence Correction

Peter M Robinson

Smoothed nonparametric estimates of the spectral density matrix at zero frequency have been widely used in econometric inference, because they can consistently estimate the covariance matrix of a partial sum of a possibl...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

AGREEING NOW TO AGREE LATER: Contracts that Rule Out but do not Rule In

Oliver Hart and John Moore

We view a contract as a list of outcomes. Ex ante, the parties commit not to consider outcomes not on the list, i.e., these are 'ruled out'. Ex post, they freely bargain over outcomes on the list, i.e., the contract spec...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

International Spillovers and Absorptive Capacity: A cross-country, cross-sector analysis based on European patents and citations.

Maria Luisa Mancusi

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the effect of national and international knowledge spillovers on innovation at a finely defined sectoral level for six major industrialised countries over the period 1981-1...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Incentives and Invention in Universities

Saul Lach and Mark Schankerman

We show that economic incentives affect the commercial value of inventions generated in universities. Using data for 102 U.S. universities during the period 1991-1999, we find that universities which give higher royalty ...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Public Education for the Minority, Private Education for the Majority

Gilat Levy

Public provision of private goods such as education is usually viewed as a form of redistribution in kind. However, does it arise when income redistribution is feasible as well? In this paper I analyse a two-dimensional ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Developing Family Development Accounts in Taipei: Policy innovation from income to assets

Li-Chen Cheng

In July 2000, the Taipei City Government launched an anti-poverty program, Taipei Family Development Accounts, which drew heavily on Sherraden¿s asset-based welfare theory, and was to provide matched savings accounts for...Read more...

CASEpaper

Urban Social Exclusion in Transitional China

Bingqin Li

This paper demonstrates that urban social exclusion in China does not only include restricted participation by the ¿underclass¿ in urban life, but also the deprivation of certain political, social and economic rights. In...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Financial Institutions and The Wealth of Nations: Tales of Development

Jian Tong and Chenggang Xu

Interactions between economic development and financial development are studied by looking at the roles of financial institutions in selecting R&D projects (including for both imitation and innovation). Financial develop...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

The Distance between Rival Nonstationary Fractional Processes

Peter M Robinson

Asymptotic inference on nonstationary fractional time series models, including cointegrated ones, is proceeding along two routes, determined by alternative definitions of nonstationary processes. We derive bounds for the...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

The Auto-component Supply Chain in China and India - A Benchmark Study

John Sutton

The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which Chinese and Indian auto-component producers have advanced towards international best practice levels of productivity and quality. The report is based on a survey of...Read more...

CASEpaper

Income Dynamics and the Life Cycle

John A. Rigg and Tom Sefton

This paper argues that our understanding of income and poverty dynamics benefits from taking a life cycle perspective. A person¿s age and family circumstances ¿ the factors that shape their life cycle ¿ affect the likeli...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Economic Basis of Social Class

John H Goldthorpe and Abigail McKnight

In this paper we adopt a theory of class positions based on employment relations to assess what implications individuals¿ class positions have for their economic life. In particular we consider economic security (the ris...Read more...

International Studies Paper

The Korean Armistice of 1953 and its Consequences - Part I

Gordon Daniels and James Hoare

Hoare: Both North and South Korea claim victory in the Korean War. Yet neither makes much of the ending of the war in July 1953, and both have had problems coming to terms with the reality of the war. The reality is that...Read more...

CASEpaper

Ethnic Segretation in England's Schools

Simon Burgess and Deborah Wilson

We document ethnic segregation in secondary schools in England in 2001 in order to contribute to the debate on the degree of ethnic group social integration. We use indices of dissimilarity and isolation to compare the p...Read more...

CASEpaper

Intergenerational and Life-Course Transmission of Social Exclusion in the 1970 British Cohort Study

Wendy Sigle-Rushton

This study used data from the British Cohort Study to examine the relationships between childhood background experiences and a variety of indicators of adult well-being. Similar to an earlier study that analyses the Nati...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Market Share Dynamics and the ‘Persistence of Leadership’ Debate

John Sutton

This paper introduces a novel analysis of the classic “persistence of leadership” question, and applies it to a newly constructed dataset for Japanese manufacturing. The analysis rests on an appeal to an empirical “scali...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Gender Discrimination and Growth: Theory and Evidence from India

Berta Esteve-Volart

Gender inequality is an acute and persistent problem, especially in developing countries. This paper argues that gender discrimination is an inefficient practice. We model gender discrimination as the complete exclusion ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Neighbourhood Management and the Future of Urban Areas

Anne Power

This paper is about low-income neighbourhoods, their organisation and management. It is not a study in deprivation, but is about problem-solving, about the reforms in delivery underway in Britain, about long run attempts...Read more...

CASEpaper

Schools in Disadvantaged Areas: Recognising context and raising quality

Ruth Lupton

Both educational attainment and school quality are typically lower in disadvantaged areas than others and much recent policy attention has been focused on each. This paper looks at the quality problem, exploring the rela...Read more...

CASEpaper

Individual Choice and Social Exclusion

Julian Le Grand

Why is social exclusion a problem? What about ¿voluntary¿ social exclusion ¿ when an individual chooses to exclude him or herself from the wider society? Brain Barry has addressed these questions in a recent CASE book, a...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance under General Sampling Schemes

Oliver Linton, Esfandiar Maasoumi and Yoon-Jae Whang

We propose a procedure for estimating the critical values of the extended Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests of Stochastic Dominance of arbitrary order in the general K-prospect case. We allow for the observations to be serially d...Read more...

CASEpaper

Disability and Disadvantage: Selection, onset and duration effects

Stephen P Jenkins and John A. Rigg

This paper analyses the economic disadvantage experienced by disabled persons of working-age using data from the British Household Panel Survey. We argue that there are three sources of disadvantage among disabled person...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Competition and Incentives with Motivated Agents

Timothy Besley and Maitreesh Ghatak

A unifying theme in the literature on organizations such as public bureaucracies and private non-profits is the importance of missions, as opposed to profit, as an organizational goal. Such mission-oriented organizations...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Should Courts Always Enforce What Contracting Parties Write? This paper is replaced by TE/2006/510

Luca Anderlini, Leonardo Felli and Andrew Postlewaite

We find an economic rationale for the common-sense answer to the question in our title ¿ courts should not always enforce what the contracting parties write. We describe and analyse a contractual environment that allows ...Read more...

CASEpaper

'Neighbourhood Effects': Can we measure them and does it matter?

Ruth Lupton

Renewed interest in disadvantaged neighbourhoods is generating increasing research activity. Current work includes qualitative community studies and quantitative investigations of area effects on individual outcomes. Thi...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

A Quantilogram Approach to Evaluating Directional Predictability

Oliver Linton and Yoon-Jae Whang

In this note we propose a simple method of measuring directional predictability and testing for the hypothesis that a given time series has no directional predictability. The test is based on the correlogram of quantile ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

A Bootstrap Causality Test for Covariance Stationary Processes

Javier Hidalgo

This paper examines a nonparametric test for Granger-causality for a vector covariance stationary linear process under, possibly, the presence of long-range dependence. We show that the test converges to a non-distributi...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Government Corruption and Legislative Procedures: is One Chamber Better Than Two?

Cecilia Testa

This paper studies the impact of the competition between lobbies and voters on policy outcomes under alternative legislative procedures. Lobbies and citizens have opposing interests in a public policy and offer money and...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Estimation of Homothetic and Homothetically Separable Functions

Arthur Lewbel and Oliver Linton

For vectors x and w, let r(x,w) be a function that can be nonparametrically estimated consistently and asymptotically normally. We provide consistent, asymptotically normal estimators for the functions g and h, where r(x...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

LARCH, Leverage and Long Memory

Liudas Giraitis, Remigijus Leipus, Peter M Robinson and Donatas Surgailis

We consider the long memory and leverage properties of a model for the conditional variance of an observable stationary sequence, where the conditional variance is the square of an inhomogeneous linear combination of pas...Read more...

DARP Paper

Risk-Adjusted Poverty in Argentina: Measurement and Determinants

Guillermo Cruces and Quentin Wodon

Relying on a Constant Relative Risk Aversion utility function, we use panel data for Argentina to compute risk-adjusted income and poverty measures and to analyze their determinants. Taking risk into account increases po...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Dynamic Yardstick Regulation

Antoine Faure-Grimaud and Soenje Reiche

This paper shows that the inability of regulators to commit to long-term contracts is irrelevant when there is some competition between regulated firms and when firms' private information is correlated. This sharply cont...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment

Robin Burgess and Rohini Pande

Lack of access to finance is often cited as a key reason why poor people remain poor. This paper uses data on the Indian rural branch expansion program to provide empirial evidence on this issue. Between 1977 and 1990, t...Read more...

DARP Paper

Argentina's Crises and the Poor, 1995-2002

Guillermo Cruces and Quentin Wodon

This paper documents the impact of Argentina's recent economic crises on different aspects of poverty, with a special focus on the economic collapse of 2002. We discuss the methodology of poverty measurement in Argentina...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Coordinating Tasks in M-Form and U-Form Organisations

Yingyi Qian, Gerard Roland and Chenggang Xu

We model the coordination of specialised tasks inside an organisation as 'attribute matching'. Using this method, we compare the performance of organisational forms (M-form and U-form) in implementing changes such as inn...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Eviction Threats and Investment Incentives

Abhijit Banerjee and Maitreesh Ghatak

We show that the effect of eviction threats on unobservable investment effort can be positive. We demonstrate this apparently counter-intuitive result in a model of tenancy where investment by a tenant in the current per...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Effect of Unobservables on Labour Supply Decisions: The formal and informal sector during transition

Ceema Zahra Namazie

The transition from a command economy in the FSU resulted in increased activities in the informal sector. However despite prevalent delays in wage payments many workers were still observed to be working full-time in the ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Identifying Vulnerable Groups in the Kyrgyz Labour Market: Some Implications for the National Poverty Reduction Strategy

Sabine Bernabe and Alexandre Kolev

This paper investigates the overlap between employment status and poverty, drawing particular attention to the working poor and precarious workers, and to the existence of multiple labor-related risks faced by specific g...Read more...

CASEpaper

Is Targeting Deprived Areas an Effective Means to Reach Poor People? An assessment of one rationale for area-based funding programmes

Rebecca Tunstall and Ruth Lupton

Area-based programmes have long been a feature of urban policy in the UK. One rationale is that they are an effective means to target poor people. Area deprivation indices are used to identify areas for targeting. This p...Read more...

DARP Paper

Theil, Inequality and the Structure of Income Distribution,(published in Research on Economic Inequality, vol. 13 (2006), pp. 345-360).

Frank A Cowell

This paper documents the impact of Argentina's recent economic crises on different aspects of poverty, with a special focus on the economic collapse of 2002. We discuss the methodology of poverty measurement in Argentina...Read more...

DARP Paper

Perceptions of Risk: an Experimental Approach using Internet Questionnaires, (published in Research on Economic Inequality, vol. 12 (2004), pp. 99-132).

Frank A Cowell and Guillermo Cruces

Building on previous studies on perceptions of inequality, welfare and risk we investigate the structure of individuals' rankings of uncertain prospects in terms of risk and their relationship to individual preferences. ...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Careerist Judges

Gilat Levy

In this paper I analyse how careerist judges formulate their decisions using information they uncover during deliberations as well as relevant information from previous decisions. I assume that judges have reputation con...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

A Local Instrumental Variable Estimation Method for Generalized Additive Volatility Models

Woocheol Kim and Oliver Linton

We investigate a new separable nonparametric model for time series, which includes many ARCH models and AR models already discussed in the literature. We also propose a new estimation procedure based on a localization of...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Neural Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos

Oliver Linton and Mototsugu Shintani

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of the nonparametric neural network estimator of the Lyapunov exponent in a noisy system. Positivity of the Lyapunov exponent is an operational definition of chaos. We intro...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric Regression Analysis under Imputation for Missing Response Data

Wolfgang Haerdle, Oliver Linton and Qihua Wang

We develop inference tools in a semiparametric regression model with missing response data. A semiparametric regression imputation estimator, a marginal average estimator and a (marginal) propensity score weighted estima...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Estimating Semiparametric ARCH (8) Models by Kernel Smoothing Methods

Oliver Linton and Enno Mammen

We investigate a class of semiparametric ARCH(8) models that includes as a special case the partially nonparametric (PNP) model introduced by Engle and Ng (1993) and which allows for both flexible dynamics and flexible f...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

An Alternative Bootstrap to Moving Blocks for Time Series Regression Models

Javier Hidalgo

The purpose of this paper is to introduce and examine two alternative, although similar, approaches to the Moving Blocks and subsampling Bootstraps to bootstrapping the estimator of the parameters for time series regress...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Asymptotic Expansions for Some Semiparametric Program Evaluation Estimators

Hidehiko Ichimura and Oliver Linton

We investigate the performance of a class of semiparametric estimators of the treatment effect via asymptotic expansions. We derive approximations to the first two moments of the estimator that are valid to 'second order...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Estimation of Semiparametric Models when the Criterion Function is not Smooth

Xiaohong Chen, Oliver Linton and Ingrid Van Keilegom

We provide easy to verify sufficient conditions for the consistency and asymptotic normality of a class of semiparametric optimization estimators where the criterion function does not obey standard smoothness conditions ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Why Labour Hoarding may be Rational: A model of firm behaviour during transition

Ceema Zahra Namazie

In the Former Soviet Union, the early 1990s were characterized by large falls in GDP and small changes to already low unemployment. The slow adjustment to unemployment was a result of employers using various means to mai...Read more...

CASEpaper

Inclusion or Insurance? National Insurance and the future of the contributory principle

John Hills

This paper examines the decline of National Insurance in Britain, as witnessed by its declining share of all social security spending and the steady dilution of the ¿contributory principle¿ on which it was originally bas...Read more...

CASEpaper

Reviewing the Terms of Inclusion: Transactional processes, currencies and context

Sally Witcher

This paper sets out an overarching theoretical framework for explaining and exploring the processes of social exclusion, incorporating themes from the literature. It proposes that inclusion hinges on participation in soc...Read more...

CASEpaper

Continuity and Change in Pathways to Young Adult Disadvantage: Results from a British Birth Cohort

John Hobcraft

A life-course account of the pathways to adult social exclusion for children born in 1958 is explored. We identify the pervasive childhood factors, associated with a wide range of adult disadvantage, and specific life-co...Read more...

DARP Paper

Convergence Club Empirics: Some Dynamics and Explanations of Unequal Growth across Indian States

Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay

This paper documents the convergence of incomes across Indian states over the period 1965 to 1998. It departs from traditional analyses of convergence by tracking the evolution of the entire income distribution, instead ...Read more...

DARP Paper

Sticks and Carrots, (published in The Crisis in Tax Administration, Aaron, H. J. and Slemrod, J. (eds.) The Brookings Institution, Washington DC, (2004) 230-275).

Frank A Cowell

The tax-payer-as-gambler (TAG) model of tax non-compliance is the classic vehicle for providing some simple insights. Under fairly general conditions this model supports the following four propositions: (1) if the rate o...Read more...

DARP Paper

Preference Reversals and the Analysis of Income Distributions

Yoram Amiel, Frank A Cowell, Leima Davidovitz and Avraham Polovin

It is known from the literature on uncertainty that in cases where individuals express a preference for a high win-probability bet over a bet with high winnings they nevertheless will bid more to obtain the bet with high...Read more...

CASEpaper

Cohabitation and divorce across nations and generations

Kathleen E Kiernan

Parental divorce has been an increasing experience amongst the generations of children born since the 1970s in European countries. This study analyses data on the partnership and parenthood behaviour of those children wh...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Democracy and Education Spending: Has Africa's Move to Multiparty Elections Made a Difference to Policy?

David Stasavage

While it is generally recognized that electoral competition can have a major influence on public spending decisions, there has been little effort to consider whether the move to multiparty elections in African countries ...Read more...

CASEpaper

Comparing incomes when needs differ: Equivalisation for the extra costs of disability in the UK

Asghar Zaidi and Tania Burchardt

Equivalisation of incomes for household size and composition is accepted practice when measuring poverty and inequality; adjustments to take account of other variations in needs are rarely made. This paper explores the f...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Endogenous Lobbying

Leonardo Felli and Antonio Merlo

In this paper we present a citizen-candidate model of representative democracy with endogenous lobbying. We find that lobbying induces policy compromise and always affects equilibrium policy outcomes. In particular, even...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Courts of Law and Unforeseen Contingencies

Luca Anderlini, Leonardo Felli and Andrew Postlewaite

We study a contracting model with unforeseen contingencies in which the court is an active player. Ex-ante, the contracting parties cannot include the risky unforeseen contingencies in the contract they draw up. Ex-post ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Unkown Integration Orders

Javier Hualde and Peter M Robinson

The semiparametric local Whittle or Gaussian estimate of the long memory parameter is known to have especially nice limiting distributional properties, being asymptotically normal with a limiting variance that is complet...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Efficiency and Equilibrium when Preferences are Time-Inconsistent

Erzo G J Luttmer and Thomas Mariotti

We consider an exchange economy with time-inconsistent consumers whose preferences are additively separable. When these consumers trade in a sequence of markets, their time-inconsistency may introduce a non-convexity tha...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Strategic Liquidity Supply and Security Design

Bruno Biais and Thomas Mariotti

We study how securities and trading mechanisms can be designed to optimally mitigate the adverse impact of market imperfections on liquidity. Asset owners seek to obtain liquidity by selling their claims on future cash-f...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Investment Timing under Incomplete Information

Jean-Paul Decamps, Thomas Mariotti and Stephane Villeneuve

We study the decision of when to invest in an indivisible project whose value is perfectly observable but driven by a parameter that is unknown to the decision maker ex ante. This problem is equivalent to an optimal stop...Read more...

International Studies Paper

Studies in the Anglo-Japanese Alliance (1902-1923)

Gordon Daniels, Janet Hunter, Ian Nish and David Steeds

Daniels examined British media views of Japan by sampling local and national dailies, with emphasis on The Times and The Economist and magazines like Punch, The Graphic and The Illustrated London News. While the metropol...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Research Productivity and Patent Quality: Measurement with Multiple Indicators

Jean O. Lanjouw and Mark Schankerman

We analyse the determinants of the decline in measured research productivity (the patent/R&D ratio)using panel data on manufacturing firms in the U.S. for the period 1980-93. We focus on three factors: the level of deman...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Law Enforcement under Incomplete Law: Theory and Evidence from Financial Market Regulation

Katharina Pistor and Chenggang Xu

This paper studies the design of law-making and law enforcement institutions based on the premise that law is inherently incomplete. Under incomplete law, law enforcement by courts may suffer from deterrence failure, def...Read more...

CASEpaper

Changing Poverty Post-1997

David Piachaud and Holly Sutherland

The paper analyses changes in poverty in Britain since 1997. A poverty level of 60 percent of median equivalised income is used. The first part examines the changes that occurred between 1996/7 and 2000/1 as shown by the...Read more...

CASEpaper

Recent Changes in the Distribution of the Social Wage

Tom Sefton

This paper examines the distribution of the ¿social wage¿ benefits in kind from welfare services, including the National Health Service, state education, social housing, and personal social services. The current Governme...Read more...

DARP Paper

Who Bore the Burden of Wage Arrears in the Kyrgyz Republic?

Ceema Zahra Namazie

Despite large falls in output in the FSU, rather than firing workers, workers were subjected to long spells of unpaid leave or non-payment of wages (wage arrears). Wage arrears is a significant problem in the countries o...Read more...

DARP Paper

Early Evidence of Welfare Changes in the Kyrgyz Republic: Have Things Got Worse with Reforms?

Ceema Zahra Namazie

The early 1990s saw the rapid introduction of policies that were to reform the centrally planned economies in CEE and FSU. These policies were expected to lead to improvements in welfare. Studies on the transition projec...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Credit Rationing, Wealth Inequality, and Allocation of Talent

Maitreesh Ghatak, Massimo Morelli and Tomas Sjostrom

We study an economy where agents are heterogeneous in terms of observable wealth and unobservable talent. Adverse selection forces creditors to ask for collateral. We study the two-way interaction between rationing in th...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Modelling the Economic Interaction of Agents with Diverse Abilities to Recognise Equilibrium Patterns

Michele Piccione and Ariel Rubinstein

We model differences among agents in their ability to recognise temporal patterns of prices. Using the concept of DeBruijin sequences in two dynamic models of markets, we demonstrate the existence of equilibria in which ...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

The Wrong Kind of Transparency

Andrea Prat

In a model of career concerns for experts, when is the principal hurt from observing more information about her agent? This paper introduces a distinction between information on the consequence of the agent's action and ...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

The Role of Freedom, Growth and Religion in the Taste for Revolution

Robert MacCulloch and Silvia Pezzini

A fundamental issue for economists is what determines civil conflict. One unsettled question is the relative importance of political freedoms versus economic development. This paper takes a new approach to provide an ans...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Economic Determinants of Truancy

Simon Burgess, Karen Gardiner and Carol Propper

Truancy is often seen as irrational behaviour on the part of school age youth. This paper takes the opposite view and models truancy as the solution to a time allocation problem in which youths derive current returns fro...Read more...

CASEpaper

Capital and the Determinants of Poverty and Social Exclusion

David Piachaud

Types of capital which determine the ability of individuals, of communities and of nations to avoid poverty and social exclusion are analysed. This analysis draws on changing explanations of economic growth and the recen...Read more...

DARP Paper

Intergenerational Mobility in Britain: Revisiting the Prediction Approach of Dearden, Machin and Reed

Ramses H. Abul Naga and Frank A Cowell

The 'prediction approach' proposed by Dearden, Machin and Reed (DMR) consists in (1) regressing the observed incomes of the child and parent families on separate sets of predetermined variables, and (2) regressing the ch...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Edgeworth Expansions for Semiparametric Whittle Estimation of Long Memory

Liudas Giraitis and Peter M Robinson

The semiparametric local Whittle or Gaussian estimate of the long memory parameter is known to have especially nice limiting distributional properties, being asymptotically normal with a limiting variance that is complet...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Denis Sargan: Some Perspectives

Peter M Robinson

We attempt to present Denis Sargan's work in some kind of historical perspective, in two ways. First, we discuss some previous members of the Tooke Chair of Economic Science and Statistics, which was founded in 1859 and ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Higher-Order Kernel Semiparametric M-Estimation of Long Memory

Marc Henry and Peter M Robinson

Econometric interest in the possibility of long memory has developed as a flexible alternative to, or compromise between, the usual short memory or unit root prescriptions, for example in the context of modelling cointeg...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Product Differentiation and Firm Size Distribution: An Application to Carbonated Soft Drinks

Patrick Paul Walsh and Ciara Whelan

Using brand-level retail data, the firm size distribution in carbonated soft drinks is shown to be an outcome of the degree to which firms have placed brands effectively (store coverage) across vertical (flavour, packagi...Read more...

CASEpaper

Tasting Freedom: Happiness, religion and economic transition

Orsolya Lelkes

Economic transition lowered happiness on average, but did not affect all equally. This paper uses Hungarian survey data to study the impact of religion and economic transition on happiness. Religious involvement contribu...Read more...

CASEpaper

Smart Growth: The Future of the American Metropolis?

Bruce Katz

In the past few years, widespread frustration with sprawling development patterns has precipitated an explosion in innovative thinking and action across the United States. This new thinking ¿ generally labeled as ¿smart ...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique

Oriana Bandiera and Imran Rasul

Despite their potentially strong impact on poverty, agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly. Using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in Mozambique, we analyse whether and how individual adoption ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

More Efficient Kernel Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Autocorrelated Errors

Raymond J Carroll, Oliver Linton, Enno Mammen and Zhijie Xiao

We propose a modification of kernel time series regression estimators that improves efficiency when the innovation process is autocorrelated. The procedure is based on a pre-whitening transformation of the dependent vari...Read more...

CASEpaper

Outsider and Insider Expertise: The response of residents of deprived neighbourhoods to an academic definition of social exclusion

Liz Richardson and Julian Le Grand

The aim of this paper is to compare academic interpretations of the term social exclusion with the understanding of people with direct experience of the phenomenon. A pre-selected group of residents of deprived neighbour...Read more...

CASEpaper

Informal Employment in Countries in Transition: A conceptual framework

Sabine Bernabe

In the past few years the informal sector in countries in transition has increasingly become the focus of research, public policy and the media. The term ¿informal sector¿ has been used to describe an extremely wide spec...Read more...

International Studies Paper

Anglo-Japanese Alliance

Ayako Hotta-Lister, Ian Nish and David Steeds

Nish dealt with the diplomacy of Britain and Japan in the five months before the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, arguing that it was not a 'natural alliance' but that there were pockets of opposition to it whi...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Land Distribution, Incentives and the Choice of Production Techniques in Nicaragua

Oriana Bandiera

Does the distribution of land rights affect the choice of contractible techniques? I present evidence suggesting that Nicaraguan farmers are more likely to grow effort-intensive crops on owned rather than on rented plots...Read more...

CASEpaper

Constraint and Opportunity: Identifying Voluntary Non-Employment

Tania Burchardt and Julian Le Grand

This paper assesses the extent to which the behaviour of an individual is the result of the constraints that he or she faces, or the result of his or her preferences. It concentrates on participation or non-participation...Read more...

CASEpaper

Sheer Class? The Extent and Sources of Variation in the UK Graduate Earnings Premium

Robin A. Naylor, Jeremy Smith and Abigail McKnight

In this paper, we use the individual-level USR data for the whole population of 1993 leavers from the ¿old¿ universities of the UK to investigate the determinants of graduate occupational earnings. Among other results, w...Read more...

CASEpaper

Measuring Well-Being and Exclusion in Europe's Regions

Kitty Stewart

The Lisbon summit of the European Council in March 2000 declared the number of people living in poverty and social exclusion in the European Union to be unacceptable, and called for steps to tackle the issue, beginning w...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Nonparametric Neutral Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos

Oliver Linton and Mototsugu Shintani

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of nonparametric neural network estimator of the Lyapunov exponent in a noisy system proposed by Nychka et al (1992) and others. Positivity of the Lyapunov exponent is an op...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance: A Subsampling Approach

Oliver Linton, Esfandiar Maasoumi and Yoon-Jae Whang

We study a very general setting, and propose a procedure for estimating the critical values of the extended Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests of First and Second Order Stochastic Dominance due to McFadden (1989) in the general k-...Read more...

Japanese Studies Programme Paper

Business and Politics in Early 20th Century Japan

Masato Kimura and Peter von Staden

The paper by Masato Kimura seeks to clarify the contributions and limitations of Japanese business diplomacy by looking at the business mission to Britain and the US in 1921-22, and the Japanese Economic Mission to Europ...Read more...

DARP Paper

Complaints and Inequality, (published in Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 23, (2004), pp. 71-89.

Frank A Cowell and Udo Ebert

Temkin (1986,1993) sets out a philosophical basis for the analysis of income inequality that provides an important alternative to the mainstream welfarist approach. We show that the Temkin principles can be characterised...Read more...

DARP Paper

Sensitivity of Inequality Measures to Extreme Values, (published in Journal of Econometrics, vol. 141, (2007), pp. 1044-1072).

Frank A Cowell and Emmanuel Flachaire

We examine the sensitivity of estimates and inequality indices to extreme values, in the sense of their robustness properties and of their statistical performance. We establish that these measures are very sensitive to t...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Can Labour Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India

Timothy Besley and Robin Burgess

This paper investigates whether the industrial relations climate in Indian States has affected the pattern of manufacturing growth in the period 1958-92. We show that pro-worker amendments to the Industrial Disputes Act ...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Is a Friend in Need a Friend Indeed? Inclusion and Exclusion in Mutual Insurance Networks in Southern Ghana

Markus Goldstein, Elisabeth Sadoulet and Alain de Janvry

Mutual insurance has been shown, theoretically and empirically, to be incomplete and limited by asymmetric information and lack of enforcement mechanisms. While some research has shown that networks based on kinship, nei...Read more...

CASEpaper

Expanding the Domain of Policy-Relevant Scholarship in the Social Sciences

William Julius Wilson

In this paper the author argues that social scientists need to do more to provide policy-relevant research. Rapid technological and economic change raise new issues about how policy should adjust that are not adequately ...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Unforeseen Contingencies

Nabil J Al-Najjar, Luca Anderlini and Leonardo Felli

We develop a model of unforeseen contingencies. These are contingencies that are understood by economic agents ' their consequences and probabilities are known' but are such that every description of such events necessar...Read more...

CASEpaper

Social Exclusion and Children: A European view for a US debate

John Micklewright

The concept of social exclusion has been widely debated in Europe but its application to children has seen relatively little discussion. What could be meant by exclusion of children is the first main theme of the paper. ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Consistent Order Selection with Strongly Dependent Data and its Application to Efficient Estimation

Javier Hidalgo

Order selection based on criteria by Akaike (1974), AIC, Schwarz (1978), BIC or Hannan and Quinn (1979) HIC is often applied in empirical examples. They have been used in the context of order selection of weakly dependen...Read more...

DARP Paper

Measuring Inequality by Counting 'Complaints': Theory and Empirics, (published in Economics and Philosophy, vol. 19 (2003) pp. 241–263)

Kurt Devooght

This paper examines how people assess inequality of an income distribution and how inequality could be measured. We start from philosophical analysis of L Temkin who distinguishes nine plausible aspects of inequality. Hi...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Enforcing Intellectual Property Rights

Jean O. Lanjouw and Mark Schankerman

We study the determinants of patent suits and their outcomes over the period 1978-1999 by linking detailed information from the U.S. patent office, the federal court system, and industry sources. The probability of being...Read more...

CASEpaper

United Kingdom Education 1997-2001

Howard Glennerster

This paper reviews the achievements of the Labour Government's education policy between 1997 and 2001. Tony Blair claimed that his Government would make education a priority. The first part of the paper reviews the scale...Read more...

Theoretical Economics Paper

Self-Confidence and Survival

Heski Bar-Isaac

We consider the impact of history on the survival of a monopolist selling single units in discrete time periods, whose quality is learned slowly. If the seller learns her own quality at the same rate as customers, a suff...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

Does Social Insurance Help Secure Property Rights?

Robert MacCulloch

This paper develops a simple model to show how social insurance affects the desire to revolt against property rights. It then tests for the effect of social insurance on revolt by introducing a panel data set derived fro...Read more...

Development Economics Paper

What Makes a Revolution?

Robert MacCulloch

Although property rights are the cornerstone of capitalist economics, throughout history existing claims have been frequently overturned and redefined by revolution. A fundamental question for economists is what makes re...Read more...

CASEpaper

Growing Up: School, family and area influences on adolescents' later life chances

Simon Burgess, Karen Gardiner and Carol Propper

This paper explores the links between school, family and area background influences during adolescence and later adult economic outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on data covering the period 1979 to 1996, drawn fr...Read more...

International Studies Paper

San Francisco: 50 Years On - Part Two

Roger Buckley, Valdo Ferretti, Neville Meaney and Ann Trotter

Buckley describes how Britain took the independent step of recognizing the People's Republic of China, a step which led to problems about China being invited to the San Francisco conference. After China's entry into the ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Adapting to Unknown Disturbance Autocorrelation in Regression with Long Memory

Javier Hidalgo and Peter M Robinson

We show that it is possible to adapt to nonparametric disturbance auto-correlation in time series regression in the presence of long memory in both regressors and disturbances by using a smoothed nonparametric spectrum e...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Quantile Regression in Lower Bound Estimation

Maria Letizia Giorgetti

In this paper, I illustrate the additional information that can be prodivided in estimating the lower bound (Sutton 1991, 1998) by using quantile regression. Quantile regression allows us to invesigate the influence of o...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

Rich Trades, Scarce Capabilities: Industrial Development Revisited

John Sutton

What economic mechanisms underlie the polarization of the world economy into the 'high wage' industrialized countries and the less developed 'low wage' countries? Should we expect the two groups to converge over time, or...Read more...

Economics of Industry Paper

The Variance of Firm Growth Rates: The 'Scaling' Puzzle

John Sutton

Certain recently reported statistical regularities relating to the dispersion of firms' growth rates have begun to attract attention among IO economists. These relationships take the form of power law or scaling relation...Read more...

International Studies Paper

San Francisco: 50 Years On - Part One

Sir Hugh Cortazzi, Roger Dingman, Peter Lowe and Kenji Tozawa

Dingman argues that the San Francisco settlement signaled the emergence of a new Pacific maritime order in which the United States Navy is the dominant naval force relying on significant bases in Japan. In particular, he...Read more...

CASEpaper

The Future of Social Justice in Britain: A New Mission for the Community Legal Service

Jonas Stein

This paper explores the disjuncture in the New Labour Government between the largest reform in fifty years of the nation's Legal Aid system and the concurrent pursuit of progressive anti-poverty, social inclusion, commun...Read more...

DARP Paper

Distributional Dominance with Dirty Data, (published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 24 (2006), pp. 291-300)

Frank A Cowell and Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

Distributional dominance criteria are commonly applied to draw welfare inferences about comparisons, but conclusions drawn from empirical implementations of dominance criteria may be influenced by data contamination. We ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Gaussian Estimation of Parametric Spectral Density with Unknown Pole

Liudas Giraitis, Javier Hidalgo and Peter M Robinson

We consider a parametric spectral density with power-law behaviour about a fractional pole at the unknown frequency w. The case of unknown w, especially w = 0, is standard in the long memory literature. When w is unknown...Read more...

DARP Paper

Risk and Inequality Perceptions

Yoram Amiel and Frank A Cowell

We examine the relationship between risk analysis and inequality analysis, using a questionnaire-experimental approach .The experiments focus on the effect of income transformations on the perceived rankings of income di...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Determination of Cointegrating Rank in Fractional Systems

Peter M Robinson and Yoshihiro Yajima

This paper develops methods of investigating the existence and extent of cointegration in fractionally integrated systems. We focus on stationary series, with some discussion of extension to nonstationarity. The setting ...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Finite Sample Improvement in Statistical Inference with I(1) Processes

D Marinucci and Peter M Robinson

Robinson and Marinucci (1998) investigated the asymptotic behaviour of a narrow-band semiparametric procedure termed Frequency Domain Least Squares (FDLS) in the broad context of fractional cointegration analysis. Here w...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Narrow-Band Analysis of Nonstationary Processes

D Marinucci and Peter M Robinson

The behaviour of averaged periodograms and cross-periodograms of a broad class of nonstationary processes is studied. The processes include nonstationary ones that are fractional of any order, as well as asymptotically s...Read more...

Econometrics Paper

Semiparametric Fractional Cointegration Analysis

D Marinucci and Peter M Robinson

Fractional cointegration is viewed from a semiparametric viewpoint as a narrow-band phenomenon at frequency zero. We study a narrow-band frequency domain least squares estimate of the cointegrating vector, and related se...Read more...

CASEpaper

Welfare Reform and Lone Mothers' Employment in the US

Jane Waldfogel, Sandra K. Danziger, Sheldon Danziger and Kristin Seefeldt

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 represents a dramatic change in the US welfare state. One of its key goals was to move lone mothers, even those with young children, fr...Read more...