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Understanding the relationship between inequalities and poverty: a review of dynamic mechanisms
Magali Duque and Abigail McKnight
In this paper we examine the evidence on how dynamic mechanisms, which include earnings and income mobility, poverty dynamics, social mobility and the accumulation of risk and advantage over the lifecycle, may be a contr...Read more...
30 October 2019
Development Discussion Paper
LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT: INCOME DYNAMICS AND THE EVOLVING POLITICAL PREFERENCES OF FORWARD-LOOKING BAYESIAN VOTERS
John Morrow and Michael Carter
The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upwar...Read more...
1 January 2012
Semiparametric Estimation of Locally Stationary Diffusion Models
Bonsoo Koo and Oliver Linton
This paper proposes a class of locally stationary diffusion processes. The model has a time varying but locally linear drift and a volatility coefficient that is allowed to vary over time and space. We propose estimators...Read more...
Modelling Vulnerability in the UK
Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay and Frank A Cowell
In this paper we examine the concept of 'vulnerability' (Townsend 1994) within the context of income mobility of the poor. We test for the dynamics of vulnerable households in the UK using Waves 1 - 12 of the British Hou...Read more...
Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: An application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK
Arnstein Aassve, Simon Burgess, Matt Dickson and Carol Propper
We pursue an economic approach to analysing poverty. This requires a focus on the variables that individuals can influence, such as forming or dissolving a union or having children. We argue that this indirect approach t...Read more...
Static and Dynamic Poverty in Spain, 1993-2000,(published in Hacienda Pública, no 179 (2007), pp. 51-77)
Elena Bárcena-Martín and Frank A Cowell
We focus on the statics and dynamics of poverty in Spain using data from the first eight waves of the European Community Household Panel from 1994 to 2001, a period not sufficiently covered by recent literature. The resu...Read more...
Labour Market Disadvantage amongst Disabled People: A longitudinal perspective
John A. Rigg
Considerable cross-sectional evidence has highlighted the lower employment rates and earnings amongst disabled people in Britain. But very little is known about the progression of disabled people in employment. This stud...Read more...
Income Dynamics and the Life Cycle
John A. Rigg and Tom Sefton
This paper argues that our understanding of income and poverty dynamics benefits from taking a life cycle perspective. A person¿s age and family circumstances ¿ the factors that shape their life cycle ¿ affect the likeli...Read more...
Economics of Industry Paper
Market Share Dynamics and the ‘Persistence of Leadership’ Debate
This paper introduces a novel analysis of the classic “persistence of leadership” question, and applies it to a newly constructed dataset for Japanese manufacturing. The analysis rests on an appeal to an empirical “scali...Read more...
Nonparametric Neural Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos
Oliver Linton and Mototsugu Shintani
This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of the nonparametric neural network estimator of the Lyapunov exponent in a noisy system. Positivity of the Lyapunov exponent is an operational definition of chaos. We intro...Read more...
Convergence Club Empirics: Some Dynamics and Explanations of Unequal Growth across Indian States
This paper documents the convergence of incomes across Indian states over the period 1965 to 1998. It departs from traditional analyses of convergence by tracking the evolution of the entire income distribution, instead ...Read more...
Nonparametric Neutral Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos
Oliver Linton and Mototsugu Shintani
This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of nonparametric neural network estimator of the Lyapunov exponent in a noisy system proposed by Nychka et al (1992) and others. Positivity of the Lyapunov exponent is an op...Read more...
An Economic Model of Household Income Dynamics, with an Application to Poverty Dynamics among American Women
Simon Burgess and Carol Propper
The rise in inequality and poverty is one of the most important economic and social issues in recent times. But in contrast to the literature on individual earnings inequality, there has been little work modelling (as op...Read more...
Income Dynamics in Germany, the USA and the UK: Evidence from Panel Data
This paper is about the distributional dynamics of net household income in Germany, the US and the UK. We reject the common wisdom that Germany is a country in statsis: stable cross-sectional distributions are deceptive,...Read more...
Poverty Dynamics in Spain: A study of transitions in the 1990s
Even if individuals care about their current economic status, they are mainly concerned about the time they remain in it (its duration). The expected duration of an economic status affects how individuals perceive it and...Read more...
Aggregate and Regional Disagggregate Fluctuations (Now published in Empirical Economics (1996), vol.21, no.1, pp.137-159.)
This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-sectio...Read more...
Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence (Now published in European Economic Review, vol.40, no.6 (1996), pp.1353-1375.)
The convergence hypothesis has generated a huge empirical literature: this paper critically reviews some of the earlier key findings, clarifies their implications, and relates them to more recent results. Particular atte...Read more...