Misperceptions of Group Inequality and Support for Redistribution and Sectarian Politics: Experimental Evidence from Lebanon

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Economic inequality in Lebanon is among the highest in the world, yet political cleavages remain overwhelmingly sectarian rather than class-based. We propose a demand-side explanation: citizens misperceive the extent of inequality between religious groups, weakening support for cross-sectarian redistribution. Using a representative survey of 3,300 adults in Greater Beirut and an embedded randomized experiment, we first document that Christians, Sunnis, and Shias all overestimate income differences across sects despite very similar economic distributions. We then expose respondents to a short video — combining factual statistics and an empathic narrative — emphasizing that poverty and wealth are shared across sects. The treatment corrects beliefs, reduces perceived intergroup inequality, and increases support for redistributive policies. These effects operate through stronger identification with social class and greater anger toward economic elites. However, political preferences and costly civic behaviors remain unchanged, reflecting the persistence of sectarian attachments and clientelistic networks. Our findings show that misperceptions of group inequality can help explain the weakness of class-based politics in highly divided societies.