Daisuke Kurisu, Hans-Georg Mueller, Taisuke Otsu and Yidong Zhou

Published 1 May 2025

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We introduce a geodesic synthetic control method for causal inference that extends existing synthetic control methods to scenarios where outcomes are elements in a geodesic metric space rather than scalars. Examples of such outcomes include distributions, compositions, networks, trees and functional data, among other data types that can be viewed as elements of a geodesic metric space given a suitable metric. We extend this further to geodesic synthetic difference-in-differences that builds on the established synthetic difference-in-differences for Euclidean outcomes. This estimator generalizes both the geodesic synthetic control method and a previously proposed geodesic difference-in-differences method and exhibits a double robustness property. The proposed geodesic synthetic control method is illustrated through comprehensive simulation studies and applications to the employment composition changes following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and the impact of abortion liberalization policy on fertility patterns in East Germany. We illustrate the proposed geodesic synthetic difference-in-differences by studying the consequences of the Soviet Union’s collapse on age-at-death distributions for males and females.