Global Export Restrictions on Critical Minerals and Upgrading in Green Value Chains

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Decarbonization and digitalization have triggered demand booms for minerals, yet resource-rich countries have historically struggled to turn finite natural resources into lasting industrialization. This paper provides the first global analysis of export restrictions on raw materials and critical minerals and their role in promoting downstream industrialization. It combines data on over 3,200+ export restrictions across 60+ countries (2002-2023) with detailed trade and production data, classifying products into value chain stages, including 41 minerals across 12 green value chains. Using AI-constructed product-level input-output linkages and staggered difference-in-differences, I estimate both direct upstream and indirect downstream effects. The theoretical framework illustrates how upstream export restrictions function as an indirect subsidy to downstream domestic sectors. The empirical results confirm this mechanism: upstream raw material exports decrease while downstream exports expand. Mining output increases despite falling mining exports, potentially driven by expanded downstream activity, suggesting resource-rich countries can leverage export restrictions to support broader industrialization.