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IFS/STICERD/UCL Development Work in Progress Seminar

Salting the Earth: Shrimp Farming and Agricultural Externalities in Bangladesh

Jack Thiemel (Department of Economics, LSE), joint with Krittika Ray

Thursday 17 September 2026 14:00 - 15:00


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About this event

Climate change is raising groundwater salinity across coastal regions, threatening smallholder livelihoods. In Bangladesh, a common adaptation is to convert rice paddies into saltwater shrimp ponds ? a technology that thrives where rice cannot. We ask whether this private adaptation generates negative externalities on neighboring rice farmers, and how this affects the adoption of the technology. Combining a novel household survey with a satellite panel covering 80,000 plots over nine years, we document a sharp salinity gradient at the shrimp?rice boundary: bordering rice plots show significantly higher salinity and lower yields than otherwise comparable plots. Event-study estimates show that a neighbor?s conversion from rice to shrimp raises own-conversion likelihood and depresses vegetation indices on remaining agricultural plots, suggesting that climate resilience for some can erode it for others.